Why the Dallas Cowboys Score by Quarter Tells the Real Story of Their Season

Why the Dallas Cowboys Score by Quarter Tells the Real Story of Their Season

The Dallas Cowboys are a fever dream for anyone trying to bet on a point spread. One week, they look like the 1990s dynasty reincarnated, and the next, they can’t find the end zone with a GPS. If you’ve spent any time looking at the Cowboys score by quarter, you already know the box score rarely tells the whole story. It’s about the timing. It’s about that weird lull in the second quarter or the frantic, "too little, too late" surge in the fourth.

Football is a game of four distinct acts. For Dallas, those acts often feel like they were written by four different screenwriters who weren't allowed to talk to each other.

The Scripted Start: Dallas in the First Quarter

Historically, Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer—and Kellen Moore before him—have been pretty decent at the "scripted" portion of the game. These are the first 15 to 20 plays that coaches draw up during the week. When you look at the Cowboys score by quarter data from the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Dallas often jumps out to an early lead, especially at AT&T Stadium.

Dak Prescott is a rhythm passer. He needs that early completion to CeeDee Lamb to settle in. In 2023, the Cowboys led the league in scoring, and a massive chunk of that came from suffocating teams early. They weren't just winning; they were ending games by the fifteen-minute mark. But there’s a flip side. When the script fails? It gets ugly fast. Think back to the 2024 blowout loss against the Detroit Lions. The first-quarter score wasn't just a deficit; it was a physical beatdown that set a psychological tone the team couldn't shake.

It's not just about the offense, either. The defense, formerly under Dan Quinn and now Mike Zimmer, relies on playing with a lead. When the Cowboys score early, the pass rushers like Micah Parsons can pin their ears back. If the first-quarter score is 0-0 or Dallas is trailing, the entire identity of the team shifts. They become reactive instead of proactive.

The Second Quarter Slump and the "Middle Eight"

There is a concept in the NFL called the "Middle Eight." It refers to the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. Analytics experts, including those at PFF and Football Outsiders, consistently point to this stretch as the most predictive of who actually wins the game.

Dallas has a complicated relationship with the second quarter.

Sometimes, they pile it on. Other times, the offense goes completely stagnant. Honestly, it’s frustrating to watch. You’ll see a brilliant 80-yard drive to open the game, followed by three straight three-and-outs. This is where the Cowboys score by quarter starts to fluctuate wildly. If the run game isn't working—which has been a massive thorn in their side lately—the second quarter becomes a series of long third downs and Brandon Aubrey field goals.

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Aubrey is a weapon, don't get me wrong. The man barely misses. But if your second-quarter scoring is entirely reliant on a kicker, you’re asking for trouble against elite teams like the 49ers or the Eagles. You can’t field-goal your way to a Super Bowl.

Halftime Adjustments or Lack Thereof: The Third Quarter

The third quarter is where coaching staff's earned their paychecks. It’s the "chess match" phase. You’ve seen what the defense is doing to take away your primary read. Now, what are you going to do about it?

When analyzing the Cowboys score by quarter, the third frame is often their quietest.

There’s a weird trend where Dallas comes out of the locker room a bit flat. Maybe it’s the long halftime at "Jerry World" with all the spectacle, or maybe it’s a failure to counter the opponent's defensive shifts. In their most disappointing losses, the third quarter is a sea of punts. Conversely, in their blowout wins, this is where they put the foot on the throat.

Take the 2023 Washington Commanders Thanksgiving game as a prime example. The third quarter was a bit of a grind, but it set up a fourth-quarter explosion. However, against top-tier competition, Dallas has often been outscored in the third, forcing Dak into "hero ball" mode during the final period.

The Fourth Quarter: Garbage Time vs. Clutch Gene

This is where the stats get messy.

If you just look at the raw numbers for the Cowboys score by quarter, the fourth quarter often looks like their highest-scoring period. But you have to apply the "eye test" here. Is that scoring happening because Dak is the second coming of Roger Staubach, or is it because the team is down by 28 and the opposing defense is playing "prevent" coverage?

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We saw this in the infamous playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers in January 2024. The fourth-quarter scoring for Dallas was huge. On paper, it looked like a close-ish game. In reality? It was a massacre. The Packers had already started thinking about their next opponent while Dallas was padding stats against backups.

But then, you have the genuine clutch moments. When the Cowboys are within one score, the fourth quarter becomes the Micah Parsons show. The pressure intensifies. The scoring slows down for the opponent, and Dallas relies on quick-strike plays to Lamb or Brandin Cooks.

Why the Run Game Dictates the Scoreboard

You can't talk about scoring without talking about the trenches. In the years when Ezekiel Elliott was in his prime, the Cowboys score by quarter followed a predictable "grind-them-down" pattern. The first half was modest, but the fourth quarter was dominant because the opposing linebackers were tired.

Now? It’s different. The 2024 season saw a rotating door at running back, and without a consistent ground threat, the scoring has become "explosive or bust." If the Cowboys don't get a 20-yard chunk play, they struggle to sustain drives. This leads to those "goose egg" quarters that drive fans crazy.

Defending the Lead: A Statistical Necessity

The Cowboys are a "front-runner" team. That sounds like an insult, but in the modern NFL, it’s a strategy. Their roster is built to play with a lead.

  • When leading after the 1st: Win percentage jumps significantly above the league average.
  • When trailing at half: The win percentage craters compared to other "elite" teams.

This is because the defense is built on speed, not bulk. If they are losing, the opponent can run the ball, negate the pass rush, and control the clock. This effectively freezes the Cowboys score by quarter because the offense can't get back on the field.

The Brandon Aubrey Factor

We have to mention the kicker again because he’s literally rewriting the scoring expectations. Because Aubrey has such incredible range (60+ yards is basically a chip shot for him), the Cowboys "scoring zone" starts at the opponent's 45-yard line. Most teams need to get to the 35. This means Dallas can salvage a bad quarter with 3 points almost anywhere on the turf.

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While field goals don't win championships, they do keep the scoreboard moving. In tight divisional games against the Giants or Commanders, those "incidental" second-quarter points from Aubrey are often the difference between a win and a loss.

Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts

If you're tracking the Cowboys score by quarter for fantasy football, betting, or just because you're a die-hard fan, stop looking at the season totals. They're lying to you. Instead, look at the splits between home and away.

Dallas is a significantly different scoring team at home. The fast turf at AT&T Stadium favors their speed. On the road, particularly on grass or in cold weather, that first-quarter scoring average drops by nearly a touchdown.

What to watch for in the next game:

  • The Opening Drive: If it’s a touchdown, Dallas usually scores 30+. If it’s a three-and-out, expect a low-scoring struggle.
  • Third Down Conversions in the 2nd Quarter: This is the best indicator of whether the offense has "figured out" the defense or if they're just guessing.
  • The First Drive of the Second Half: If McCarthy hasn't adjusted the protection for Dak by this point, the fourth-quarter scoring will likely just be "garbage time" points.

The Dallas Cowboys remain one of the most polarizing teams in professional sports. Their scoring patterns are a direct reflection of that volatility. They are a team of streaks, a team of momentum, and a team that—for better or worse—always keeps the scoreboard operator busy.

To truly understand this team, you have to look past the final result. The narrative is hidden in the 15-minute increments. Whether it's a dominant opening or a desperate closing rally, the quarter-by-quarter breakdown is the only real way to diagnose what’s actually happening with America’s Team.

Keep an eye on the turnover margin in the first half. Historically, the Cowboys' scoring is heavily predicated on defensive takeaways giving the offense a short field. When the defense isn't forcing fumbles or picks, the scoring drives become much longer and much harder to sustain. That's the real "secret sauce" to their high-scoring quarters—it's often the defense doing the heavy lifting.