The plane tracking starts around late October. You know how it goes. Fans sit in darkened rooms, refreshing FlightAware to see if a private jet from Tuscaloosa is landing in a random regional airport in Oregon. It’s madness. Absolute madness. But that’s the reality of the coaching carousel college football fans have come to love and loathe in equal measure.
It used to be simpler. A coach would lose his rivalry game, get a firm handshake and a cardboard box for his office, and the school would spend a month vetting a replacement. Now? If you aren't firing your coach by the Sunday after Thanksgiving, you’re already behind. Actually, scratch that. If you haven't identified your next target by mid-October, you’ve basically lost the recruiting cycle.
Money has changed everything. Obviously. We’re seeing buyouts that look like GDP figures for small nations. When Texas A&M decided to move on from Jimbo Fisher, they didn't just fire him; they cut a check for over $75 million just to make him go away. That’s the "go away" price. It fundamentally shifted how every other athletic director (AD) looks at their contract negotiations. You can’t just hire a guy anymore; you have to marry him with a prenuptial agreement that could bankrupt a university if things go south in year three.
The Transfer Portal and the Need for Speed
Why the rush? The answer is the Transfer Portal and the early signing period. Honestly, these two things turned a steady carousel into a high-speed centrifuge.
Back in the day, a new coach had months to build a staff and recruit. Now, if a school doesn't have a name on the dotted line by early December, their entire roster might evaporate. Players aren't waiting around to see "who the new guy is" anymore. They’re hitting the portal the second the head coach's seat gets warm. This creates a desperate feedback loop. ADs fire coaches earlier to get a jump on the market, which forces other schools to fire their coaches earlier to protect their own assistants from being poached. It’s a domino effect that starts earlier every single season.
Take the 2021 cycle as a prime example. Lincoln Riley leaving Oklahoma for USC and Brian Kelly ditching Notre Dame for LSU happened in the same week. Those weren't just hires; they were seismic shifts that forced mid-tier programs to scramble for whoever was left. It proved that no one is safe. Not even the blue bloods.
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The Agent Game: Who is Really Pulling the Strings?
If you want to understand the coaching carousel college football ecosystem, you have to look at the power brokers like Jimmy Sexton. It’s not a secret. It’s just how the business works.
Agents represent the coaches on both sides of the carousel. They represent the guy getting fired and the guy being hired to replace him. They have more leverage than the university presidents in many cases. When a coach's name starts "popping up" for a job opening in the media, half the time it’s just an agent looking to squeeze a raise out of the current school. It’s a leverage play. Fans get worked up, message boards go into a frenzy, and three days later, the coach signs a two-year extension with a massive raise. Mission accomplished.
- Leverage is everything in November.
- Rumors are often strategic leaks, not actual reports.
- The "search firm" is often just a way for an AD to have plausible deniability.
The Myth of the "Dream Job"
We love to talk about "destination jobs." Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Texas. But the carousel has shown us that the "dream job" is a moving target.
Sometimes, the best job isn't the one with the biggest stadium. It’s the one with the most patient fan base and the most functional NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) collective. Look at what’s happening with programs that used to be considered "stepping stones." Because of the massive influx of TV money from the Big Ten and SEC, even "middle-of-the-pack" schools can outbid traditional powers for top-tier coordinators.
The pressure is suffocating. You’ve got coaches winning nine games and still feeling the heat because they didn't make the expanded 12-team playoff. The bar for success hasn't just been raised; it’s been electrified. If you aren't competing for a national title by year three, the boosters start whispering. And in the age of NIL, the boosters have more power than ever because they’re the ones funding the roster. If the "money men" aren't happy with the coach, the funding for players dries up. It’s a brutal cycle.
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Why Buyouts Don't Matter Anymore (To Some)
You’d think a $20 million buyout would protect a coach’s job. It doesn’t. Not anymore.
Television revenue has reached such heights that the cost of not firing a coach is often higher than the cost of the buyout itself. If a program's performance dips, ticket sales drop, donations stall, and the brand loses value. To a billionaire booster or a school receiving an $80 million annual check from their conference, a $15 million buyout is just the "cost of doing business." It’s an entry fee to try again.
How to Navigate the Chaos: A Fan's Survival Guide
If you’re trying to keep track of the coaching carousel college football madness, you need to filter out the noise. Most of what you see on social media is noise.
First, watch the coordinators. The "hot" names usually come from the top-ranked offenses in the country. But pay attention to the "re-treads." College football loves a second act. Coaches who failed at one big school often go to the NFL or take an offensive coordinator job at a powerhouse (the "Nick Saban Coaching Clinic for Coaches Who Can't Coach Good and Want to Do Other Things Good Too") and suddenly become the top candidates again two years later. Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin are the blueprint for this.
Second, follow the money, not the "fit." People talk about "culture fit" and "knowing the area." That matters way less than it used to. What matters is if the coach can manage a $15 million NIL budget and keep 100 20-year-olds from entering the portal. The modern head coach is less like a traditional whistle-around-the-neck teacher and more like a CEO of a mid-sized corporation.
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Real-World Case Studies in Carousel Logic
Look at Florida. Since Urban Meyer left, they’ve been on a treadmill. Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen, Billy Napier. Each hire made "sense" at the time. Muschamp was the elite coordinator. McElwain had the offensive pedigree. Mullen was the proven winner within the conference. Napier was the "process-oriented" rising star.
The lesson? There is no "sure thing" anymore. The carousel is a gamble every single time. A coach can be a genius at a Group of Five school and lose his mind under the pressure of a blue-blood program. Or, like Kalen DeBoer, they can prove that a winner is simply a winner, regardless of the level.
Actionable Steps for the Modern Fan
- Ignore the "Sources" for the first 48 hours. Most early reports are agents floating names to see what sticks or to get their clients raises.
- Monitor the NIL Collective. If a school's collective is quiet during a coaching search, they’re in trouble. The best hires usually happen when the money is lined up before the press conference.
- Check the "Coaching Tree." Success breeds success. Look at where the assistants came from. The Kirby Smart/Nick Saban tree is still the gold standard for a reason.
- Prepare for the "Portal Exodus." When a coach is hired, expect at least 15-20 players to leave. It’s not a sign of failure; it’s the new normal. The "rebuild" now happens in one off-season via the portal, not three years of high school recruiting.
The coaching carousel isn't just about football. It’s about ego, finance, and the desperate search for relevance in a sport that is becoming more top-heavy every day. The schools that win the carousel aren't necessarily the ones that hire the "biggest" name; they’re the ones that provide the new coach with the infrastructure to win immediately.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at the wins and losses and start looking at the university's bank account and the agent representing the man on the sidelines. That's where the real games are won.