Walk into any casino in Las Vegas, and you’ll see the same thing. People are throwing money away. They’re sitting at the green felt, sipping a lukewarm gin and tonic, and making "gut" decisions that make mathematicians cry. They stay on a 12 against a Dealer’s 3 because they "have a feeling" the next card is a face. It’s painful to watch.
If you actually want to leave the table with the casino's money—or at least keep yours for more than twenty minutes—you need to stop guessing. You need a basic blackjack strategy chart.
This isn't cheating. It’s just math. Blackjack is one of the few games in the building that isn't entirely random. Every card that leaves the deck changes the probabilities of what’s coming next. This chart is basically a map of every possible situation you can find yourself in, showing you the move that gives you the highest mathematical edge. Honestly, the casino usually lets you keep a physical copy of the chart right there on the table. They know that even with "perfect" play, the house still has a tiny edge, but most people are too proud or too distracted to actually use it.
The Math Behind the Basic Blackjack Strategy Chart
Blackjack is a game of narrow margins. When you play by "feel," the house edge can balloon to $5%$ or even $10%$. That's a disaster for your bankroll. By strictly following a basic blackjack strategy chart, you can grind that house edge down to about $0.5%$.
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Think about that. For every $100$ you wager, you’re only "paying" the casino 50 cents for the entertainment.
The chart was pioneered back in the 1950s by four guys known as the "Baldwin Group"—Roger Baldwin, Wilbert Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James McDermott. They didn't have supercomputers. They had desk calculators and a massive amount of patience. They proved that for every hand combination, there is a single decision (Hit, Stand, Double, Split, or Surrender) that yields the highest expected value.
Why the Dealer’s Upcard Changes Everything
Most beginners only look at their own two cards. That is a massive mistake. The dealer's visible card—their "upcard"—is the most important piece of information on the table.
If the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6, they are in a "weak" position. They have a high probability of busting. In these cases, your strategy shifts toward staying on lower totals and letting the dealer take the risk. But if that dealer has an Ace or a 10? They’re "strong." Now, you have to be more aggressive, hitting on totals where you’d normally stay, because you assume the dealer is going to end up with a 20.
Hard Totals: The Meat of the Strategy
A "hard" hand is any hand that doesn't contain an Ace, or contains an Ace that must be counted as 1 to avoid busting. These are the hands that get people in trouble.
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Look, nobody likes hitting on a 16. It feels like jumping off a cliff. But if the dealer is showing a 7, 8, 9, or 10, the basic blackjack strategy chart says you have to hit. Yes, you will probably bust. However, statistically, you will lose less money over 1,000 hands by hitting than you would by staying. It’s about damage control.
Here’s the breakdown for hard totals:
If you have 8 or less, always hit. No exceptions.
If you have 9, double down if the dealer shows 3 through 6; otherwise, hit.
If you have 10, double down unless the dealer has a 10 or Ace.
If you have 11, always double down (unless the rules of that specific table forbid it).
For 12 through 16, stay if the dealer is weak (2-6). If the dealer is strong (7-Ace), you hit.
If you have 17 or higher, you stand. Period.
Soft Totals and the Power of the Ace
Soft hands (hands with an Ace) are where the real money is made. Since an Ace can be a 1 or an 11, you have a safety net. You can’t bust on the next card.
Most amateurs play soft hands too conservatively. They see a Soft 18 (Ace-7) and they stand. They think 18 is a great hand. Actually, against a dealer 9, 10, or Ace, an 18 is a losing hand. You should actually hit it.
The biggest "pro move" on the basic blackjack strategy chart involves doubling down on soft hands. For example, if you have Ace-6 and the dealer has a 2 through 6, you double. You’re betting that the dealer's weakness and your flexibility will result in a win. It feels weird the first time you do it, but the math doesn't lie.
To Split or Not to Split?
Splitting pairs is where you can turn a mediocre round into a massive win. But it’s also where people blow their stack by splitting things they shouldn't.
Always split Aces and 8s. Always.
A pair of 8s is a 16—the worst hand in blackjack. By splitting them, you have a chance to turn one garbage hand into two decent hands starting with an 8. Aces are split because it gives you two chances at a 21.
Never split 10s or 5s. A pair of 10s is a 20. That is a winning hand. Don't be greedy and break it up. A pair of 5s is a hard 10. You're much better off hitting or doubling a 10 than you are playing two separate 5s.
The Surrender Option
Not every table allows surrender, but if yours does, use it. Surrendering allows you to give up your hand and lose only half your bet. It’s the ultimate "fold." Use this on a hard 15 against a dealer 10, or a hard 16 against a dealer 9, 10, or Ace. It sounds like quitting, but in the long run, it saves your bankroll from the "big drain."
Real-World Nuances and Rule Variations
Not all blackjack games are created equal. This is where the basic blackjack strategy chart gets a bit complex. Before you sit down, look at the placard on the table.
Does the dealer hit on a Soft 17? If they do, the house edge is slightly higher, and you need to be slightly more aggressive with your doubling.
How many decks are in the shoe? A single-deck game has different optimal moves than an eight-deck shoe.
Does the table pay 3:2 for Blackjack or 6:5?
Warning: Never, ever play at a 6:5 table. It is a total scam. It increases the house edge by about $1.4%$, making it nearly impossible to win long-term regardless of how well you know the chart. If you see "Pays 6:5" on the felt, stand up and walk away. Find a 3:2 table.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Trip
Knowing the chart exists is one thing. Executing it under the bright lights of a casino with a loud music and a dealer moving at 100 miles per hour is another.
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- Get a physical card. Buy a plastic-coated basic strategy card from a gift shop or print one out. It is $100%$ legal to use it at the table.
- Practice at home. Download a free blackjack app and play while looking at the chart. Do this until the moves become "muscle memory."
- Ignore the other players. You will eventually sit next to a guy who gets angry because you "took the dealer's bust card." Ignore him. He’s wrong. The cards don't have a memory, and your "hit" doesn't "mess up the deck" for anyone else.
- Manage your bankroll. Even with perfect strategy, you will have losing streaks. Never bet more than $2%$ of your total trip bankroll on a single hand.
The goal isn't to get rich on one hand. It's to play perfectly so that the law of large numbers works in your favor. Use the chart. Trust the math. Stop guessing.
Final Strategy Check
- Hit on hard 11 or less.
- Stand on hard 17 or more.
- Double on 10 or 11 when the dealer is weak.
- Split Aces and 8s every single time.
- Avoid insurance bets—they are a sucker's bet with a massive house edge.