Ron DeSantis is hitting the road soon. Not literally, of course—he’s still in the mansion—but the clock is ticking on his term, and the race for Florida governor in 2026 is already turning into a high-stakes game of political musical chairs. It’s wild to think about, but Florida hasn’t seen an open-seat race for governor since 2018, and the state has changed a ton since then. It’s redder. It’s more expensive. And honestly, it's a lot more unpredictable than people think.
You’ve got heavy hitters like Congressman Byron Donalds, who basically has Donald Trump’s blessing tattooed on his campaign, and then you have folks like Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings trying to see if a Democrat can actually win a statewide race in a place that’s starting to feel like a GOP fortress.
The Republican Primary: A Proxy War or a Coronation?
Let's look at the numbers. They’re kind of staggering if you’re anyone other than Byron Donalds. In a Mason-Dixon poll from January 2026, Donalds is sitting pretty at 37% among Republican primary voters. His closest "declared" rival? Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, who just jumped in on January 12, 2026, is trailing way back at 7%.
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It’s not just about the name recognition. It’s the Trump factor. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed that when voters are told Trump endorsed Donalds, his support jumps to 68%. That’s a massive "incumbency-style" advantage for someone who isn't even the incumbent.
But it’s not a done deal. Jay Collins isn't exactly a pushover. He’s a former Green Beret, and he’s leaning hard into that "leadership under pressure" brand. Then you have Paul Renner, the former Florida House Speaker. He’s the guy who helped pass a lot of the legislation that made DeSantis a household name across the country. He’s only at 4% in the polls right now, but he has the ties to the donor class that could make things interesting if he decides to drop a few million on TV ads.
And then there's the "Casey Factor." Casey DeSantis hasn't said she's running. Her husband once said her interest was "zero," but in the world of Florida politics, zero usually means "wait and see." If she enters the race for Florida governor, every single one of these charts gets thrown out the window.
Can a Democrat Actually Win This Time?
Democrats in Florida are sort of in a "searching for soul" phase. It’s been decades since they held the governor’s mansion—1994 was the last time, with Lawton Chiles. That is a long, long time.
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Jerry Demings is the big name here. He officially launched his "I Believe" campaign in November 2025. He’s got the resume: former Orlando Police Chief, former Orange County Sheriff, and current Mayor of one of the state's biggest blue hubs. If he wins, he’d be the first African American governor in Florida's history. He’s focusing on the "bread and butter" stuff—homelessness, mental health, and the fact that it basically costs a kidney to rent a one-bedroom apartment in Orlando these days.
Then there’s David Jolly. This is where it gets sort of weird. Jolly is a former Republican Congressman. He’s now running as a Democrat. If that sounds familiar, it’s because Charlie Crist did the exact same thing in 2022 and got beat by nearly 20 points. Some Democrats are skeptical. Anna Hochkammer from the Florida Women’s Freedom Coalition has been pretty vocal about it.
The polls for the general election are tighter than the primary, though. Early Victory Insights data had Donalds at 37% and Jolly at 31%, with about a third of the state still saying "I don't know yet."
What Most People Get Wrong About the Florida Electorate
People look at the 2022 results and think Florida is deep, deep red. It is, but the race for Florida governor in 2026 will be fought on different turf. In 2022, the GOP won the Latino vote by huge margins. But a lot of that was driven by specific concerns around COVID-19 and "socialism" rhetoric.
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Now? The top concern for voters—according to a UNF poll—is housing and the cost of living. Florida's property insurance crisis is no joke. People are seeing their premiums triple, and they're looking for someone to blame. If the Republican candidates spend all their time talking about "woke" culture and the Democrats spend all their time talking about property taxes, we might see a closer race than the pundits expect.
The demographic breakdown is also shifting.
- Republican Core: Strongest in the Panhandle and Southwest Florida (Naples/Fort Myers).
- Democratic Base: Needs massive turnout in Broward, Palm Beach, and Leon (Tallahassee).
- The Battleground: The I-4 Corridor. This is where Jerry Demings lives and breathes. If he can pull big numbers in Orange and Osceola while cutting into GOP margins in Polk and Volusia, he has a path.
The Wildcards Nobody Talks About
You have to look at the "No Party Affiliation" (NPA) candidates too. State Senator Jason Pizzo resigned his post to run as an NPA. He’s pitching himself as the "adult in the room" who can balance a checkbook. In a state where people are increasingly frustrated with both parties, an NPA with a big bank account could be a spoiler.
Also, James Fishback. He’s a 30-year-old investor running as a Republican. He’s attacking Byron Donalds from the right on things like H-1B visas and AI data centers. It’s a niche play, but in a primary, niche plays can cause headaches.
What Happens Next?
If you're watching the race for Florida governor, the next big dates are the primaries on August 18, 2026. Between now and then, expect a lot of "proxy war" talk between the Trump-aligned wing of the party (Donalds) and the DeSantis-aligned wing (potentially Collins or Renner).
For the Democrats, the test is whether they can coalesce behind a single candidate early. If Demings and Jolly spend all their money fighting each other, the Republican winner will walk into the general election with a massive head start.
Practical steps for Florida voters:
- Check your registration status now. Florida has been purging voter rolls, and with the "resign-to-run" laws and redistricting, your polling place or district might have changed.
- Watch the property tax and insurance debates. This is the issue that will actually move the needle for the "undecided" 49% of the electorate.
- Pay attention to the lieutenant governor picks. In Florida, the LG doesn't do much until they suddenly have to do everything. With Jay Collins (the current LG) running for the top spot, that dynamic is already shifting.
The race is just getting started, and honestly, in Florida, that usually means things are about to get a lot louder. Keep an eye on the fundraising reports coming out this quarter; they'll tell you who the "real" candidates are before the first debate even happens.