Why the 2022 Florida Governor Race Still Matters Two Years Later

Why the 2022 Florida Governor Race Still Matters Two Years Later

If you were watching the news on the night of November 8, 2022, you probably remember the feeling of a political earthquake. It wasn't just that a Republican won in Florida—that’s been happening for decades. It was the sheer, crushing scale of it. The 2022 Florida governor race didn't just re-elect Ron DeSantis; it effectively ended the "swing state" era for Florida and sent ripples through the national political landscape that we are still feeling today in 2026.

Back in 2018, DeSantis won by a microscopic 0.4% margin. Basically, he barely squeaked by Andrew Gillum. Fast forward four years, and he didn't just win; he demolished his opponent, Charlie Crist, by nearly 20 percentage points. To be exact, it was a 19.4% gap. That is the kind of margin you expect in deep-red Idaho, not in a state where presidential elections used to be decided by a few hundred votes and a box of hanging chads.

The Night the Blue Strongholds Crumbled

Honestly, the most shocking part of the 2022 Florida governor race wasn't the total vote count. It was the map. For years, Democrats relied on "The Big Three" to stay competitive: Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. If you win those big, you have a chance.

DeSantis flipped Miami-Dade.

Think about that for a second. Miami-Dade is the most populous county in the state. It hadn't gone for a Republican governor since Jeb Bush in 2002. DeSantis won it by 11 points. He also took Palm Beach County, which hadn't seen a red victory for governor since 1986. Even Hillsborough County (Tampa) and Duval County (Jacksonville) went red. Crist was left standing in a sea of red, holding onto only a handful of traditional blue pockets like Alachua and Leon.

The numbers are kinda staggering:

  • Ron DeSantis (R): 4,614,210 votes (59.4%)
  • Charlie Crist (D): 3,106,313 votes (40.0%)

When you look at why this happened, you've gotta talk about the shift in the Latino vote. This wasn't just a slight trend; it was a tidal wave. DeSantis won 58% of the total Latino vote across the state. He specifically captured 69% of Cuban Americans and, perhaps most surprisingly for many analysts, 56% of Puerto Rican voters, a group that has historically leaned heavily Democratic.

Why Charlie Crist Couldn't Close the Gap

Charlie Crist was in a tough spot from the start. He was a former Republican governor turned Independent turned Democrat. While he had name recognition, he lacked a clear, energized base. He tried to hammer DeSantis on issues like abortion—following the Dobbs decision—and the rising cost of homeowners insurance.

But it didn't stick. Not enough, anyway.

One major reason was the money. DeSantis was sitting on a war chest that looked more like a presidential treasury. His campaign raised over $161 million, while Crist managed about $14 million. It’s hard to win a fistfight when the other guy has a fleet of tanks. DeSantis’s team flooded the airwaves with ads focusing on his "Free State of Florida" mantra, highlighting his refusal to keep schools and businesses closed during the later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While Crist talked about insurance premiums, DeSantis talked about "woke ideology" and parental rights in education. It turned out that for the 2022 electorate, the cultural and economic messaging of the GOP was a much more powerful draw than the Democratic platform.

The Demographic Breakdown: A New Coalition?

The 2022 Florida governor race revealed a massive enthusiasm gap. Republican turnout was significantly higher than Democratic turnout across the board. In Miami-Dade, registered Republican turnout was nearly 15 points higher than Democratic turnout. It wasn't just that people were switching sides; it was that one side stayed home while the other showed up in droves.

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Table of Key County Shifts (2018 vs 2022):

In 2018, DeSantis lost Miami-Dade by about 20 points. In 2022, he won it by 11. That is a 31-point swing in four years. In Palm Beach, he went from losing by 17 points to winning by 3. These aren't just statistical anomalies; they are fundamental shifts in how Floridians identify politically.

Many experts, including those from the UF Election Lab, noted that the state's demographics are changing. Thousands of people moved to Florida during the pandemic, many of them attracted by the governor's policies. This "migration of the like-minded" likely played a role in cementing the Republican supermajority we see now.

Lessons for the Future

If you're looking for what this means for politics moving forward, here are the three biggest takeaways:

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  1. The "Purple State" Label is Dead: Florida is now a solid red state. The 2022 results were so lopsided that national Democratic organizations have largely pulled funding from the state to focus on easier wins elsewhere.
  2. Economic Populism vs. Culture War: DeSantis proved that you can run a campaign almost entirely on "culture war" issues if you pair it with a strong "open for business" economic message.
  3. Latino Voters are not a Monolith: The 2022 Florida governor race was a masterclass in GOP outreach to diverse Hispanic communities. The assumption that these voters are safely in the Democratic column is officially a relic of the past.

If you're a political junkie or just a concerned citizen, keep an eye on the voter registration trends in your own county. The "Florida Model" of aggressive registration and cultural messaging is being exported to other states as we speak. Check your local Supervisor of Elections website to see how the numbers have shifted in your area since the last cycle—you might be surprised by how much the "map" is still changing.