The 2021 NFL MVP voting was weird. Honestly, it was one of the most polarizing races we've seen in the modern era of the league. You had Aaron Rodgers chasing back-to-back trophies while dealing with a mountain of off-field drama. Then there was Tom Brady, basically playing against Father Time and winning, leading the league in almost every major passing category at age 44. It wasn't just about the stats, though. It became a referendum on what "valuable" actually means in a locker room versus on a spreadsheet.
Green Bay finished with the best record in the NFC. That usually seals the deal. But the way the 2021 NFL MVP voting shook out left a lot of fans, especially in Tampa Bay, feeling like the process was broken.
The Numbers vs. The Narrative
If you just look at the raw production, Tom Brady had a massive case. He threw for 5,316 yards. That’s a lot. He also led the league with 43 passing touchdowns. In most years, leading the NFL in yards and touchdowns is an automatic MVP lock. But Rodgers had the efficiency. He was surgical. He finished the season with 37 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. That 9.25 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the kind of stuff that makes voters drool.
Rodgers finished with a passer rating of 111.9. Brady was at 102.1.
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The debate really centered on whether you value the volume of a guy like Brady, who carried a pass-heavy Buccaneers offense, or the mistake-free precision of Rodgers. Rodgers didn't have to throw as much because the Packers were often playing from ahead or leaning on a steady run game. But when he did throw, it was almost always the right decision. This efficiency vs. volume argument is the eternal struggle of MVP voting.
That One Hub Arkush Incident
We can’t talk about the 2021 NFL MVP voting without mentioning the controversy. Hub Arkush, a veteran Chicago-based voter, publicly stated he wouldn't vote for Rodgers. He called him "the biggest jerk in the league" and cited Rodgers' off-field behavior and "misleading" statements about his vaccination status as the reason. It was a mess.
This sparked a massive debate about the criteria. The MVP is technically an on-field award. At least, that's what the Associated Press (AP) guidelines suggest. Arkush eventually apologized for the distraction, but the damage was done. It made people wonder if other voters were secretly penalizing Rodgers for his personality or his Tuesday appearances on The Pat McAfee Show.
In the end, Rodgers still won comfortably. He took 39 of the 50 first-place votes. Brady got 10. Cooper Kupp, who had a historic "Triple Crown" season as a wide receiver, got the remaining one vote.
The Case for Cooper Kupp
Kupp was incredible. He led the league in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947), and receiving touchdowns (16). That’s the Triple Crown. It had only happened four times since the AFL-NFL merger. People were screaming for a non-quarterback to win, and Kupp was the perfect candidate.
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But the 2021 NFL MVP voting proved once again that this is a quarterback's league. Even with a season that was statistically superior to almost any other receiver in history, Kupp couldn't crack the top two. If a receiver can't win with nearly 2,000 yards and a Triple Crown, it’s hard to imagine what it would actually take for a wideout to ever hoist that trophy again. Maybe 2,500 yards? Probably not even then.
Quarterbacks touch the ball every play. They dictate the flow. Voters know that.
Why the Context of 2021 Matters
You have to remember what was happening in Green Bay that year. It started with the "Last Dance" Instagram post from Rodgers and Davante Adams. Everyone thought it was over before it began. Rodgers missed a game against Kansas City due to COVID-19 protocols, and the Packers lost. If he plays that game, maybe they finish 14-3 instead of 13-4.
The 2021 NFL MVP voting reflected a player who was essentially the entire identity of his team. When Rodgers was on the field, the Packers looked invincible. When he wasn't, they looked lost. That is the definition of "Value."
Comparing the Top Candidates
- Aaron Rodgers: 4,115 yards, 37 TDs, 4 INTs, 13-3 record as a starter.
- Tom Brady: 5,316 yards, 43 TDs, 12 INTs, 13-4 record.
- Cooper Kupp: 145 catches, 1,947 yards, 16 TDs.
- Jonathan Taylor: 1,811 rushing yards, 18 TDs, 5.5 yards per carry.
Jonathan Taylor was another name that got lost in the shuffle. He kept the Colts in the playoff race until the very last week. He was the best pure football player for long stretches of that season. But again, the lack of QB next to his name on the depth chart was a death sentence for his MVP chances.
The Final Tally and Lasting Impact
When the NFL Honors ceremony rolled around in February 2022, Rodgers accepted his fourth MVP. This put him alone in second place for the most MVPs all-time, trailing only Peyton Manning (5). It was a legacy-defining moment.
But it also solidified the "efficiency over everything" era of voting. Brady had over 1,000 more passing yards. Think about that. 1,000 yards is a decent season for some starters, and that was just the gap between them. Yet, the interceptions and the slightly lower completion percentage hurt Brady in the eyes of the AP panel.
Critics of the 2021 NFL MVP voting results often point to the "Who would you rather have for one game?" test. In 2021, most people were split 50/50.
Lessons for Future MVP Races
If you’re trying to predict who wins the MVP in future seasons based on what happened in 2021, keep a few things in mind. First, the #1 seed in the conference carries massive weight. Winning games is the ultimate stat. Second, avoid the "big mistake." Rodgers’ four interceptions were his shield against Brady’s counting stats.
Voters are also human. They say they don't look at the news, but they do. The fact that Rodgers won despite the media firestorm shows that, at least for the majority of the 50 voters, what happens between the white lines still carries the most weight.
To really understand how these awards are decided, you should look into the "EPA per play" (Expected Points Added) and "CPOE" (Completion Percentage Over Expected) metrics. In 2021, Rodgers was at or near the top of both. Analysts like Ben Baldwin and the crew at Pro Football Focus (PFF) heavily favored Rodgers because of these advanced metrics. They show that Rodgers wasn't just "good," he was maximizing every single snap he took.
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What to Do With This Information
If you're a sports bettor or just a die-hard fan trying to win an argument at the bar, stop looking at total yards. They're a "vanity metric" in the modern NFL. Instead:
- Track Turnover Worthy Plays: A quarterback might have low interceptions, but if they are dropping the ball or throwing into triple coverage constantly, the luck will run out. Rodgers was genuinely careful with the ball in 2021.
- Watch the Standings: Since 2013, almost every MVP has come from a team with a top-two seed in their conference. If your candidate is on a 9-8 wild card team, they aren't winning.
- Identify the "Narrative" Early: Whether it's a "revenge tour" or "overcoming injury," the story often matters as much as the box score.
The 2021 NFL MVP voting wasn't just a tally of stats; it was a snapshot of a league in transition, caught between the old-school volume of Brady and the new-school efficiency of Rodgers. It remains a fascinating case study in how we judge greatness.