Honestly, if you look at a standard 2020 state election map, you’d probably think one side got absolutely walloped. There is just so much red. Like, sea-to-shining-sea levels of red. But then you look at the actual numbers and realize Joe Biden won by over 7 million votes.
It’s weird, right?
We’ve been trained for decades to look at these blocks of color as if they’re sports teams owning territory. But land doesn't vote. People do. And when you dig into what actually happened across those 50 states, the "red vs. blue" thing starts to feel a lot more like a "shades of purple" reality.
The Big Illusion of the Red and Blue Blocks
Most of us see that famous map and see two different Americas. One is a bunch of blue islands on the coasts and the other is a massive red heartland.
But that’s a total lie of perspective.
Take a state like Virginia in 2020. If you just glance at the map, it looks like a Republican landslide because most of the counties are red. However, Biden won the state by 10 points. Why? Because the tiny blue dots of Northern Virginia and Richmond have way more people than the huge red blocks in the south.
Researchers at the University of Virginia actually found that these "winner-take-all" maps make us feel more polarized than we really are. When we see a state turn solid blue, we forget about the three million Republicans living there. When we see a solid red state, we ignore the millions of Democrats. Basically, the map makes us think our neighbors are more different from us than they actually are.
What Actually Flipped in 2020
You’ve probably heard about the "Blue Wall." For a long time, Democrats counted on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Then in 2016, Trump smashed that wall.
In 2020, the map shifted again. Biden managed to claw those three back, but the real shockers were further south and west.
- Arizona: This was a huge deal. It hadn't gone for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996. Biden won it by a razor-thin 10,457 votes.
- Georgia: Even crazier. Georgia hadn't flipped blue since 1992. Biden took it by 11,779 votes.
- The Tipping Point: If you took just 43,000 people across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin and had them switch their votes, the Electoral College would have been a 269-269 tie.
That is how close the 2020 state election map actually was. It wasn't a "wave." it was a series of tiny ripples in the right places.
The Metro vs. Everything Else Divide
If you really want to understand the 2020 map, stop looking at state lines and start looking at city limits.
There’s this framework called "Blue Metros, Red States." It basically says that the real fight isn't between New York and Texas. It’s between the city of Austin and the rest of Texas.
In 2020, Biden won every single state where one big metropolitan area made up more than half the population. As cities grow and suburbs shift, the map changes. We saw this in the "Sun Belt" states. Places like Atlanta and Phoenix are growing so fast that they’re starting to outweigh the rural areas that used to dominate the state's politics.
Why Does This Still Matter in 2026?
You might think 2020 is ancient history. It's not.
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Right now, as we head into the 2026 midterms, states are still fighting over these maps. Because the 2020 census and the subsequent election showed such massive shifts, politicians are frantically redrawing lines (gerrymandering, if we're being honest) to protect themselves.
In California, there's a huge legal battle right now over a new House map designed to help Democrats. Meanwhile, in Texas and Ohio, Republicans have been shoring up their lines to counter the "blue" growth in their cities.
Things We Still Get Wrong
- The "Landslide" Myth: Neither side had a landslide. Biden won the popular vote comfortably, but the Electoral College was a nail-biter.
- Monolithic States: There is no such thing as a "safe" state forever. Just ask Georgia or Arizona.
- The Color Coding: We didn't even use red for Republicans and blue for Democrats consistently until the 2000 election. It was just a media convention that stuck.
How to Actually Read an Election Map
Next time you see a 2020 state election map, don't just look at the colors.
- Look for the "Bubbles": See those tiny blue circles? Check the population. They usually represent 60% or more of the state's total power.
- Check the Margins: A state that is 51% blue and a state that is 90% blue look exactly the same on a standard map. Use a "purple map" or a gradient map to see the real story.
- Watch the Suburbs: The 2020 results were decided in the "donut" around cities. That’s where the most "swing" voters live.
If you want to get a better handle on how your specific area changed, I'd recommend checking out the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. They have some of the most granular county-level data out there. You can also look at the Cook Political Report to see how those 2020 trends are currently playing out in the 2026 redistricting fights.
Understanding the map isn't about memorizing who won where. It's about seeing where the people are moving and how those movements are changing the power balance of the whole country.
Take a look at your own county's data from 2020 and compare it to 2016. You might be surprised at how much your own neighborhood shifted without you even noticing.