It’s easy to forget how weird things got. Back in 2016, the political vibe in the U.S. wasn’t just tense; it was fundamentally broken for a huge chunk of the electorate. People were looking for an exit ramp. You had two of the most disliked major-party candidates in modern history—Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton—and that created this massive vacuum. Everyone was asking the same question: Could a third party president 2016 run actually work?
History says no. Obviously. But the numbers tell a story that's way more interesting than just a "loss."
The Libertarian Surge and the Gary Johnson "Moment"
Gary Johnson was the former Governor of New Mexico. He wasn't a fringe radical; he was a guy who had actually run a state. Along with his running mate, Bill Weld (the former Governor of Massachusetts), he represented the Libertarian Party’s biggest "what if" in history.
They weren't just shouting from the sidelines. They were pulling 10% or more in some national polls during the summer of 2016. For a second there, it felt like they might actually make the debate stage. To do that, you need to hit 15% in five major national polls. They didn't make it.
Why? Well, "Aleppo" happened.
During an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Johnson was asked about the crisis in Aleppo, Syria. He blanked. "What is Aleppo?" he asked. It was a death blow to his momentum. In a high-stakes election, voters are looking for a reason to say "no" to a third-party candidate, and he gave it to them on a silver platter. Despite that, Johnson still pulled nearly 4.5 million votes. That's about 3.3% of the popular vote—the best showing for the Libertarians ever.
It’s wild to think about. 4.5 million people looked at the two main options and said, "I'll take the guy who doesn't know where Aleppo is over these two."
Jill Stein and the Green Party Factor
Then you had Jill Stein. She was the Green Party’s pick, pulling from the progressive left that felt burned by the Bernie Sanders loss in the primary. She didn't get the same raw numbers as Johnson, but her impact was arguably more "surgical" in the states that actually decided the map.
In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the margins between Trump and Clinton were razor-thin. Like, incredibly thin. In some of these states, the number of people who voted for Stein was actually larger than the margin of victory for Trump.
Now, does that mean those people would have voted for Clinton? Not necessarily. A lot of Stein voters would have stayed home. But the narrative stuck: the third party president 2016 movement acted as a "spoiler," whether they intended to or not. Stein ended up with about 1.1% of the national vote. It sounds small until you realize that in a polarized system, 1% is everything.
The Independent Maverick: Evan McMullin
You can't talk about 2016 without mentioning Evan McMullin. He was a late entry, a former CIA officer who ran as an independent specifically to give "Never Trump" conservatives a place to go.
He didn't care about a national win. He was a one-state wonder. His goal was Utah.
The strategy was fascinating. If he could win Utah's electoral votes and the race was close enough to prevent either Trump or Clinton from hitting 270, the election would go to the House of Representatives. It was a long shot. A total Hail Mary. He ended up getting about 21% of the vote in Utah. He didn't win the state, but he proved that a targeted, regional independent run could still shake things up in the 21st century.
Why Nobody Actually Won
Money. Media. Ballot access.
Running for president is expensive. Like, "billions of dollars" expensive. Third-party candidates just don't have the infrastructure. They don't have the donors. They also don't get the airtime. Unless you're a billionaire like Ross Perot in 1992 who can buy his own "infomercials," you're at the mercy of news cycles that only want to cover the "main event."
Also, the "wasted vote" syndrome is a real psychological barrier. People might love a candidate's platform, but they get scared at the ballot box. They think, "If I vote for who I actually like, I'm helping the person I hate most win."
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It’s a cycle that feeds itself.
The Math of the "Spoiler" Effect
Let's look at the actual data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). In 2016, minor party and independent candidates combined for about 6% of the popular vote. That’s roughly 8 million people.
To put that in perspective, in 2012, that number was only about 1.5%.
The massive jump shows that the 2016 electorate was uniquely disgusted. But the U.S. uses a "first-past-the-post" system. If you get 49% of the vote and your opponent gets 51%, they get 100% of the power. There are no silver medals. This is why a third party president 2016 was always a mathematical impossibility under current rules.
Without Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), third parties are basically just protest vehicles. They aren't designed to win; they're designed to send a message. And the message in 2016 was: "We aren't happy."
Lessons for Future Voters
If you're tired of the two-party system, 2016 is your textbook. It shows that interest is there, but the mechanics of the system are rigged against outsiders.
If you want to support a third party effectively, you have to look beyond the top of the ticket. Presidential runs are great for getting 5% of the vote (which secures federal funding for the next cycle), but they don't change the laws. Change usually starts with local and state-level "fusion voting" or pushing for Ranked Choice Voting in your own city.
- Research Ranked Choice Voting (RCV): This is the only way a third party ever becomes viable. It allows you to rank candidates by preference, so if your first choice loses, your vote moves to your second choice. No more "spoiler" fear.
- Look at the 5% Threshold: If a third party hits 5% of the national popular vote, they qualify for millions of dollars in federal matching funds for the next election. This is often the real goal of these campaigns.
- Follow the Ballot Access Laws: Every state has different rules. Some make it nearly impossible for anyone but a Republican or Democrat to even get their name printed on the paper. Supporting organizations like FairVote can help change these barriers.
- Local Elections Matter More: Third parties often find success in city councils or state legislatures. This builds the "bench" of experienced candidates who won't get tripped up by questions like "What is Aleppo?" when they finally reach the national stage.
The 2016 election wasn't just a fluke. It was a warning shot. It proved that millions of Americans are ready to walk away from the two-party duopoly, even if they haven't quite figured out where they're going yet.