Tesla is having a rough morning. Honestly, it’s felt like a bit of a slog for the EV giant lately, and today’s dip just adds another layer of "meh" for investors who were hoping for a January rally. As of this morning, Friday, January 16, 2026, the stock is drifting lower—down about 1% today and roughly 3% since the year kicked off.
It isn't just one thing. It's a messy cocktail of regulatory headaches, people cashing out before a big meeting, and the simple fact that selling electric cars just isn't as easy as it used to be.
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The Five-Week Breathing Room (That Isn't Really Relaxing)
The biggest news hitting the wires today involves the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Regulators just gave Tesla a five-week extension to respond to their investigation into Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
You’d think more time would be a good thing, right?
Sometimes. But in this case, it’s a reminder of why the feds are knocking in the first place. They are looking into 62 different complaints about FSD cars doing things they shouldn't—like blowing through red lights or driving on the wrong side of the road. While the extension to February 23 gives Elon Musk’s team some room to breathe, it keeps a dark cloud hanging over the company’s most important tech.
Investors hate "to be continued" stickers on legal drama.
Pre-Earnings Jitters and Profit Taking
We are exactly twelve days away from January 28. That’s when Tesla drops its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings report.
Traders are getting twitchy.
Basically, people are "booking profits." If you made a little money on the stock's run-up late last year, you might not want to gamble it on what Musk says during a conference call. We’ve seen this movie before: Tesla reports, the margins look a little thin, and the stock takes a dive. A lot of folks are selling now just to be safe.
The numbers we already know aren't exactly thrilling. Tesla delivered about 418,227 vehicles in Q4. That missed what Wall Street expected (around 422,000) and—this is the part that stings—it’s a 16% drop from the same time the year before.
The Subsidy Hangover
If you bought a car in the U.S. last year, you probably felt the shift. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit effectively died for many buyers at the end of 2025.
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It was a "delivery hangover."
Everyone who wanted a Model 3 or Model Y rushed to buy one in November or December to catch the tax break. Now, in January 2026, demand has hit a wall. Without that government "discount," Tesla is back to fighting a price war with Chinese rivals like BYD, who officially snatched Tesla's crown as the world's top EV maker last year.
BYD sold 2.26 million cars in 2025. Tesla? 1.64 million.
That shift in the leaderboard is a psychological blow to the "Tesla is the only game in town" narrative.
The AI Pivot: Genius or Distraction?
Elon has been very clear lately: Tesla is an AI and robotics company, not just a car company.
The stock price is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 230. For context, General Motors and Ford usually trade at a P/E of about 8. People are paying a massive premium because they believe in the Cybercab, the Optimus robot, and the Tesla Semi.
But today, that premium feels heavy.
Nvidia is breathing down everyone's neck in the AI space. If Tesla can't show that its FSD subscriptions (which just became the only way to get the tech for new buyers) are actually bringing in massive cash, the "AI company" valuation starts to look a bit shaky.
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What to Watch Next
If you're holding TSLA or thinking about jumping in, the noise today is just a prelude. The January 28 earnings call is the real "make or break" moment for the quarter.
Watch these three specific things:
- Automotive Margins: Are they still shrinking because of price cuts?
- FSD Subscription Uptake: Since they stopped the $8,000 one-time purchase, are people actually paying the monthly fee?
- The Semi Ramp: Any news out of the Nevada Gigafactory regarding volume production of the Semi truck could actually flip the sentiment.
For now, the stock is stuck in a "wait and see" pattern. It’s a bit of a transition year for the company, moving from being a car-shipping machine to an AI powerhouse. Transitions are almost always messy.
Keep an eye on the $435 support level. If the stock dips below that before the earnings report, we might see even more "weak hands" fold before the big reveal on the 28th. Check your brokerage app for the Q4 revenue consensus—currently pegged at $25 billion—because anything less will likely trigger another round of selling.