The modern NFL is a passing league. Or at least, that’s what every talking head on TV wants you to believe while they fawn over $60 million quarterbacks and track the air yards of every deep post route. But if you actually sit down and watch a cold November game in Pittsburgh or a playoff battle in Baltimore, the truth hits you differently. Starting running backs in the NFL aren't obsolete; they've just evolved. They are the pressure valves, the physical enforcers, and the primary reason those explosive play-action passes work in the first place.
It's kinda funny how the "RB value" conversation shifted so fast. A few years ago, the consensus was "never pay a runner." Then Christian McCaffrey happened. Then Saquon Barkley revitalized a Philadelphia offense that looked stagnant. Now, we’re seeing a massive resurgence in the importance of having a true "bell-cow" who can handle 20 touches without falling apart.
The Myth of the Replaceable Workhorse
You've heard it a thousand times: "Running backs are a dime a dozen." It sounds smart in a board room or on a spreadsheet. But stats don't account for the "intimidation factor" or the sheer exhaustion a defense feels after 240-pound Derrick Henry hits them for the 15th time.
When we talk about starting running backs in the NFL today, we aren't just talking about guys who take a handoff and run into a wall of linemen. The elite ones are basically hybrid wide receivers. Take a look at the 2024 season production from guys like Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs. These aren't just "runners." They are the focal points of the entire offensive scheme. If you remove a top-tier starter and replace him with a "replacement-level" JAG (Just Another Guy), your third-down conversion rate usually plummets.
Why? Because a defense doesn't have to respect the check-down as much. They can pin their ears back and hunt the quarterback.
What the Analytics Get Wrong
Data scientists love to point out that rushing success is more about the offensive line than the individual back. To an extent, they’re right. A massive hole created by a Pro Bowl guard will make almost anyone look fast. However, the elite starting running backs in the NFL create yards when the blocking fails.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, "Yards Over Expected" is the metric that separates the greats from the average. Most starters get what is blocked. The special ones—the Nick Chubbs of the world—somehow find four yards when the play-call suggests they should have been tackled for a loss of two. That’s the margin between winning and losing. It’s also why teams are still willing to spend high draft capital on the position despite the "don't do it" warnings from the analytics community.
The Toll of the 17-Game Season
Let's get real for a second. The human body wasn't designed to be hit by a car 300 times a year. That’s essentially what being a starter in this league feels like. With the move to a 17-game schedule, the physical demands have reached a breaking point.
We’ve seen a shift toward "committees," but there is still a massive distinction between a "lead back" and a "rotational piece." A true starter has to master pass protection. If a running back can't pick up a blitzing linebacker, he won't be on the field, regardless of how fast he is. This is the biggest hurdle for rookies entering the league. They might have the highlights, but if they let their QB get sacked, they're riding the pine.
The average career span is still hovering around 3.3 years. That's brutal. It creates a weird market dynamic where players want to get paid immediately because they know their "shelf life" is incredibly short compared to a left tackle or a kicker.
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How the Market is Rebounding
Remember the 2023 offseason? It was grim. The market for starting running backs in the NFL looked like it was collapsing. Veterans were being cut, and nobody was getting the big bag. But then the 2024 free agency period hit, and suddenly the money started flowing again.
Saquon Barkley got his money. Josh Jacobs moved to Green Bay for a significant payday. Joe Mixon found a new home in Houston and immediately proved he was the missing piece for a young offense.
- Teams realized that a "good enough" run game isn't actually good enough.
- A dominant back settles a young quarterback.
- The threat of the run forces defenses out of "Two-High" safety shells.
Basically, if you can't run the ball, you can't force the defense to bring a safety into the box. If there are two safeties deep all game, your star WR isn't getting those deep shots. The run game unlocks the pass game. It’s all connected.
The Rise of the "Positionless" Runner
We should talk about Deebo Samuel, even though he's technically a wideout. He changed the way coaches look at the backfield. Now, when scouts look for starting running backs in the NFL, they want "versatility" above all else.
Can you line up in the slot?
Can you run a Texas route?
Can you catch a screen and make three people miss?
If the answer is no, you’re just a two-down back. And two-down backs don't get the big contracts anymore. The modern starter is a Swiss Army knife. Christian McCaffrey is the blueprint here. He’s arguably as good a receiver as many WR2s in the league. That’s the value proposition that keeps the position relevant.
Scouting the Next Generation
The college game is producing a different kind of athlete. In the past, you had "power backs" and "speed backs." Now, everyone is expected to do everything. Look at the way Bijan Robinson was used at Texas and how that translated to the pros. He was drafted in the top 10 not just because he can run, but because he can be the centerpiece of a passing attack.
But there's a catch. The "tread on the tires" argument still haunts every draft pick. Teams are terrified of a guy who had 300 carries a year in college. They want the talent, but they want it "fresh." It’s a bit of a catch-22 for these young players. They have to produce to get noticed, but if they produce too much, they’re seen as "damaged goods" before they even hit the NFL.
Why the "Workhorse" isn't Dead Yet
Despite all the talk of "running back by committee," look at the teams that made deep playoff runs lately. They almost all have a definitive "guy."
The Ravens have Lamar Jackson, sure, but adding a true hammer like Derrick Henry changed their entire identity. It made them harder to tackle in the fourth quarter. It wore defenses down. That’s the psychological element of the game that you can't see on a spreadsheet. When it’s third-and-one and everyone in the stadium knows who’s getting the ball, and that guy still gets the first down? That breaks a defense’s spirit.
Honestly, the "starter" title matters because of rhythm. Most backs will tell you they don't even get warm until their eighth or ninth carry. If you’re rotating guys every two plays, they never find that flow. The best coaches—the Shanahans and the Reids—know when to ride the hot hand.
Actionable Insights for Following the Position
To truly understand the value of starting running backs in the NFL, you have to look beyond the box score. Don't just look at rushing yards. They're often misleading.
Track Success Rate over Total Yardage. A back who gets 4 yards on 1st-and-10 is more valuable than a back who gets 15 yards on 3rd-and-20 when the defense is playing soft. Success rate measures if the runner put the offense in a "winnable" position for the next play.
Watch the Pass Protection. If you want to know which rookie back will actually get playing time, stop watching their highlight reels and start watching their pass-blocking snaps. If they can’t identify the Mike linebacker or pick up a corner blitz, they’ll be on the sidelines while a veteran takes the "starting" snaps.
Monitor the "Touches per Game" Trend. In fantasy and real-life football, the 20-touch mark is the gold standard. Very few players hit this consistently anymore. When you find one who does, you're looking at a foundational piece of an NFL franchise.
Evaluate the "Heavy Box" Percentage. Check how many defenders are in the box when a certain back is on the field. The truly elite starting running backs draw 8-man boxes even when the team has good receivers. That gravity is what allows the rest of the offense to breathe.
The position isn't dying. It’s just getting more specialized. The days of the "30-carries-up-the-middle" grinder might be fading, but the era of the elite, do-it-all playmaker is just getting started. If you want to win in today's NFL, you still need a guy in the backfield who scares the hell out of the opposing defensive coordinator.