Fantasy football managers treat kickers like the annoying younger sibling they’re forced to take to the mall. You don't want them there. You barely pay attention to them. Then, suddenly, it’s Monday night, you’re down by nine points, and you’re screaming at the television because some guy named Younghoe or Justin just missed a 45-yarder. It’s a mess.
Most start em sit em kickers advice is garbage because it relies on "projections" that are basically just guesses. You see a projection of 8.4 points and think, cool, he’s a safe play. He isn't. Kickers are high-variance chaos agents. But if you look at the right data—weather, "red zone stall" rates, and Vegas totals—you can actually find a massive edge.
Honestly, stop drafting a kicker in the 12th round. Just stop. You’re burning a roster spot that could be a high-upside handcuff running back. Wait until the final seconds of your draft, or better yet, don't draft one at all if your league allows it, then grab a streamer on Sunday morning.
The Indoor Advantage Is Real (But Overrated)
Everyone tells you to play kickers in domes. It makes sense, right? No wind. No rain. No frozen toes.
While the "cozy dome" narrative is mostly true for long-distance accuracy, it’s a bit of a trap. If a team is playing in a dome but they have a bottom-tier offense that can’t even reach the 35-yard line, that kicker is still going to give you a big fat zero. You need a "Goldilocks" offense. You want a team that is good enough to move the ball between the 20s but absolutely pathetic at finishing drives.
Take the 2023 Dallas Cowboys. Brandon Aubrey was a godsend not just because he’s talented, but because Mike McCarthy’s offense was an efficiency machine that sometimes tripped over its own feet in the red zone. That’s the dream.
Why the Over/Under Matters More Than Your Gut
If you want to win the start em sit em kickers battle every week, open a sports betting app. Look at the implied team totals. If the Chiefs are projected to score 28 points, Harrison Butker is going to have opportunities. It’s simple math. High-scoring games lead to more scoring opportunities. Duh.
But here is the nuance: look for games with a high total but a narrow spread. A blowout is actually bad for kickers. If a team is up by 21 points in the fourth quarter, they aren’t kicking a field goal on 4th and 3 from the 12-yard line. They’re going for it to kill the clock or just being aggressive. You want the "nail-biter" games where every three points feels like a lifeline.
Weather Reports Are Your Best Friend and Worst Enemy
A little bit of rain doesn't hurt a kicker. It really doesn't. Modern cleats and turf management are incredible.
Wind? That’s the kicker killer.
Anything over 15 mph starts to move the ball. If you see a "Wind Advisory" for a game in Chicago or Buffalo, you have to pivot. It’s not just about the ball drifting; it’s about the coach’s psyche. If a head coach sees the flags whipping, he’s 50% more likely to go for it on 4th down because he doesn't trust his guy to nail a 40-yarder into a gust.
- 10 mph: Business as usual.
- 15-20 mph: Start getting nervous. Only start elite names (Tucker, Butker).
- 20+ mph: Abort mission. Sit them all.
The Weird Science of Red Zone Efficiency
This is where the real nerds win championships. You want to target kickers on teams with a high "Red Zone Field Goal Attempt" percentage.
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Some teams are just "TD or Bust." The Philadelphia Eagles with the "Tush Push" (or Brotherly Shove) are a nightmare for Jake Elliott’s fantasy value. Why kick a field goal on 4th and 1 when you have a 92% success rate of moving the chains? You want the teams that lack a goal-line bruiser. Think of the mid-2000s teams that settled for three every time they hit the 10-yard line.
When to Actually Bench a "Stud" Kicker
Justin Tucker is the greatest to ever do it. We know this. But even Tucker has "sit" weeks.
If the Ravens are playing a defense that is a total "sieve"—meaning they give up touchdowns on every drive—Tucker might end the day with five extra points and zero field goals. That’s 5 points. You could have picked up a random guy off the waiver wire playing for a stagnant offense against a "bend-but-don't-break" defense and gotten 12 points.
Never be afraid to cut a kicker. They aren't your friends. They are points on a spreadsheet. Unless you’re in a deep dynasty league, kickers are seasonal workers. Treat them like it.
The Altitude Factor
Denver is real. The ball travels further in thin air. It’s not a myth; it’s physics. If you’re stuck between two guys for your start em sit em kickers decision, and one of them is playing at Mile High, take the guy in Colorado. Wil Lutz or whoever is kicking for the Broncos that year gets an automatic +5 yard range boost just by stepping off the plane.
A Note on Rookie Kickers
Be careful.
Rookies have "the yips" more often than veterans. A missed kick in the first quarter can lead to a coach benching them for the rest of the game or just going for two-point conversions because the trust is gone. Give rookies a few weeks to prove they belong in the league before you trust them with your fantasy playoff life.
Practical Steps for Your Matchup This Week
- Check the Vegas Odds: Find the games with an over/under above 48 points.
- Filter by Weather: Use an app like Weather Underground to check wind speeds three hours before kickoff.
- Analyze the Matchup: Look for a "Good Offense vs. Great Red Zone Defense" scenario. The defense holds them to three, and you reap the rewards.
- Confirm the Kicker is Actually Playing: It sounds stupid, but kickers get "sneaky" injuries in warmups all the time. Check the inactive list 90 minutes before kickoff.
- Ditch the Sentimentality: If your favorite team's kicker is struggling, don't start him out of loyalty. Fantasy football is a cold, calculated game of numbers.
The most important thing to remember about start em sit em kickers is that volume is king. You don't need the most accurate kicker in the world; you need the guy who gets four opportunities. A guy who goes 3-for-4 is way better for your team than a guy who goes 1-for-1. Look for the volume, ignore the jersey name, and watch the points roll in.
Actionable Next Steps
To dominate your kicker slot this week, start by looking at the Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TDs) for every team. Cross-reference the bottom 10 teams in that category with the top 10 teams in total offensive yards. Those "inefficient" offenses are your gold mines. Once you have that list, check the Sunday morning wind forecasts. If your target is playing in 18mph winds, move to the next name on the list. Finally, ensure your kicker isn't facing a defense that leads the league in "Three and Outs," as you need drives to reach at least the opponent's 35-yard line to generate a scoring chance.