You've probably seen the pull rate data by now. It’s brutal. Honestly, the Pokémon TCG Scarlet & Violet—Shrouded Fable expansion feels like a bit of a slap in the face if you're chasing that one specific Special Illustration Rare (SIR). Usually, a "Special Set" like this—think Crown Zenith or Paldean Fates—is supposed to be a fun, high-hit-rate experience. But Shrouded Fable chase cards are proving to be some of the most elusive pieces of cardboard we've seen in the SV era so far.
If you’re ripping packs looking for that Cassiopeia or the Mew ex, you’re basically fighting an uphill battle against math.
The set is small. That’s the first thing you notice. With only 95 cards in the main set before you hit the secret rares, you’d think it would be easier to complete. It isn't. Because of the way the "Loyal Three" and Pecharunt are positioned, the top-tier hits are buried under a mountain of Illustration Rares that, while beautiful, aren't the high-value targets collectors are actually hunting.
The Brutal Reality of Shrouded Fable Pull Rates
Let's talk numbers. Data from TCGplayer and massive community pack openings suggest that hitting a Special Illustration Rare in this set happens roughly once in every 50 to 60 packs. That sounds fine on paper until you realize there are five different SIRs. If you want a specific one, like the Cassiopeia SIR (094/064), you might be looking at odds closer to 1 in 280 packs.
That is wild.
Compare that to Twilight Masquerade, where the Carmine SIR was the big prize. Even though that set was massive, the sheer volume of "hits" felt more frequent. In Shrouded Fable, you can go through an entire Elite Trainer Box (ETB) and come out with nothing but a couple of double rare ex cards. It’s a specialized set, and the "chase" is localized entirely in that Illustration Rare slot.
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The "Loyal Three"—Okidogi, Munkidori, and Fezandipiti—are the stars here, but their ex versions are relatively common. The real hunt is for their specialized art. Specifically, the Fezandipiti ex (092/064) has become a massive sleeper hit. Why? Because it’s actually good in the game. It’s not just a pretty face; it’s a functional engine for dark-type decks and various multi-energy builds. Collectors want it for the art; players want it for the "Flip the Script" ability. That dual demand is what makes a true chase card.
Why Cassiopeia is the Crown Jewel
Cassiopeia is the runaway winner for the most expensive card in the set, and for good reason. The art is done by uta, who has a knack for capturing that moody, neon-lit aesthetic that fits the Team Star storyline perfectly.
But there’s a nuance here most people miss.
Unlike the Charizards or Lugias of the world, Cassiopeia’s value is driven almost entirely by "Waifu" tax and rarity, rather than competitive dominance. It’s a niche supporter card. To use its effect, it has to be the last card in your hand. That’s hard to pull off consistently in a fast-paced meta. So, if you’re buying this card, you’re betting on the long-term collectibility of the character rather than its utility on the playmat.
Most people get this wrong. They see a high price tag and assume it’s the next Iono. It’s not. It’s rarer, sure, but it’s less "playable." That makes its price trajectory a lot more volatile. If you see it dip below $60, that’s usually a signal that the initial hype is cooling, but because it’s a Special Illustration Rare in a limited-print set, it’s unlikely to ever truly crater.
The Mew ex and Rayquaza "Holo" Confusion
We have to talk about the promos. Shrouded Fable is unique because some of its most "chase-worthy" art isn't even in the booster packs.
The Mew ex and Rayquaza ex cards from the Special Illustration Collections are technically promos. They have that "SVP" star icon. In previous eras, promos were looked down upon. Not anymore. The artwork on these is arguably better than half the cards in the actual set. Because you can only get them by buying the specific boxed collections, their supply is tied to the availability of those boxes on store shelves.
- Mew ex (SVP 126): Features a stunning, colorful art style that mimics the classic "bubble" Mew vibes.
- Rayquaza ex (SVP 127): A dark, celestial take on the fan-favorite legendary.
Don’t ignore the Cosmic Holo energies either. This is a weird one. Shrouded Fable introduced these galaxy-foil style energies that haven’t been seen in a while. They appear in the reverse holo slot. While not "chase cards" in the sense of costing $100, they are incredibly popular for "max-rarity" players who want their entire deck to sparkle. A well-centered Darkness Energy with a good swirl can actually fetch a decent premium on the secondary market.
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The "Loyal Three" Problem
The lore of Shrouded Fable centers on Pecharunt and its trio of brainwashed subordinates. From a collector's standpoint, this creates a bit of a bottleneck.
Fezandipiti ex, Munkidori ex, and Okidogi ex all have Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares. If you’re a completionist, you need all of them. But because they are so closely linked, their prices tend to move in a pack. If Fezandipiti spikes because of a tournament win, the others often follow suit just because people want the "set."
Actually, keep an eye on Fezandipiti ex (092/064) specifically. In the current 2024-2025 Standard format, its ability to draw three cards when one of your Pokémon is knocked out is invaluable. It’s a "comeback" mechanic. Whenever a card is both rare and useful, it becomes a "sticky" chase card—one that stays expensive long after the set stops being printed.
Identifying Authentic Shrouded Fable Hits
With the rise of high-quality fakes, you've got to be careful. The shrouded fable chase cards all feature a specific "fingerprint" texture.
If you run your thumb over a Special Illustration Rare like the Pecharunt ex, you should feel distinct, spiraling ridges that follow the art. If it’s flat or just has a generic "diagonal" texture, it’s a fake. The holofoil pattern should also be "under" the texture, not printed on top of it.
Also, look at the borders. Scarlet & Violet era cards have silver borders. If you see a yellow border on a Shrouded Fable "hit," it’s either a very bad fake or you’ve somehow found a time-traveling card from the Sword & Shield era.
Is Shrouded Fable Worth Ripping?
This is the $100 question.
If you enjoy the "gambler's high," Shrouded Fable is one of the toughest sets to conquer. The "hit rate" per dollar spent is lower than Crown Zenith. Because there are no individual booster sleeves (it's a special set, so you have to buy ETBs, mini-tins, or collection boxes), your "price per pack" is higher.
Usually, you're paying about $5.00 to $6.00 per pack.
If you pull a $10 Illustration Rare after spending $50 on an ETB, it hurts. That’s why many veteran collectors are pivoting. Instead of chasing the dragon through packs, they are waiting for the "initial hype window" to close—usually 3 to 6 weeks after release—and buying the singles.
How to Secure These Cards Without Breaking the Bank
- Monitor the "Trough": Pokémon cards usually hit their lowest price point about 3-5 months after release. For Shrouded Fable, that means watching the market in late 2024 or early 2025.
- The "Playability" Factor: Watch Japanese tournament results. If a card like Pecharunt ex starts winning big over there, the English chase card will spike in price about two weeks later when Western players catch on.
- Grade the Promos: The Mew and Rayquaza promos are often poorly centered straight out of the box. If you find one that is perfectly centered, consider grading it. A PSA 10 promo can often outvalue a raw Special Illustration Rare from the main set.
Shrouded Fable isn't a set for the faint of heart. It’s moody, it’s difficult, and the pull rates are stingy. But that’s exactly what makes the chase cards feel like a trophy. When you finally see that textured, full-art Cassiopeia staring back at you from the back of a pack, the struggle feels worth it. Just don't expect it to happen on your first try.
Your Next Steps
- Audit your collection: Check your reverse holo slots for the "Cosmic" galaxy foil energies; many people bulk these out without realizing they have a niche market.
- Track the SIRs: Use a tool like PriceCharting or TCGplayer’s mobile app to track the Pecharunt and Cassiopeia SIRs over the next 30 days.
- Target the Special Illustration Collections: If you want the best "guaranteed" value, skip the individual tins and go for the Mew or Rayquaza boxes—the promos alone cover a significant chunk of the MSRP.
- Watch the Meta: If you pull a Fezandipiti ex (Regular or SIR), hold onto it until the next major International Championship; its price is likely to peak when the professional players are panic-buying copies for their decks.