If you haven’t checked the price of groupon stock lately, you might be in for a bit of a shock. It is not the same company that tried to sell you a discounted jet-ski lesson in 2012. It’s leaner. It’s weirder. And honestly, it's a lot more volatile than most people realize.
As of mid-January 2026, Groupon (GRPN) is trading around the $16.16 mark. That sounds modest until you look at the 52-week rollercoaster it’s been on. We’ve seen a high of over $43.00 and a low dipping toward $9.21.
Why the massive swing?
Wall Street is currently torn between two very different stories. One side sees a phoenix rising from the ashes of the "daily deal" era. The other side sees a struggling tech relic trying to pivot before the cash runs out.
What is Driving the Price of Groupon Stock Right Now?
The market is reacting to a massive internal overhaul. CEO Dusan Senkypl has been hacking away at the old business model like a man possessed. He’s moved the company toward "first principles," which is fancy CEO-speak for "fixing the broken stuff."
Last year, specifically around November 2025, the stock took a massive 27% hit in just one month. Why? Because while they reported a surprise profit, the earnings per share (EPS) actually missed the mark by a mile—coming in at -$2.92 against a tiny expected gain. Investors hate surprises that involve negative signs.
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But here is the kicker: billings are up.
In the third quarter of 2025, Global billings rose 11%. In North America—the bread and butter of the business—Local billings jumped 18%. That tells us people are still buying things on Groupon. They just aren't buying them in the same way they used to.
The Shift to "Things To Do"
Groupon is basically ditching the "Goods" business. You know, the random bamboo pillows and off-brand headphones? Those are mostly gone. They are betting the house on local experiences. Think spa days, food tours, and what they call the "Things To Do" vertical.
During the summer 2025 season, this category actually outpaced the wider industry's growth. That’s a huge data point for anyone watching the price of groupon stock. If they can dominate the "bored on a Saturday" market, the valuation could look very different by the end of 2026.
The Bull Case: Why Some Analysts Say "Buy"
Believe it or not, about 60% of analysts covering GRPN right now have it as a Strong Buy. That feels high for a company that was recently dropped from the Russell 3000, but there’s logic behind the optimism:
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- Debt Restructuring: They managed a $244 million debt deal in early 2025. It cut their net debt from $500 million to $300 million. It basically bought them time to breathe.
- Platform Migration: They are moving from old-school SEO to "LLM optimization." They want you to find Groupons via ChatGPT or Gemini conversations, not just Google search results.
- High Margins: Despite the losses, their gross profit margins are sitting at a staggering 90.86%. When you don't have to ship physical products, the math gets a lot cleaner.
The Bear Case: The Goldman Sachs Perspective
Not everyone is invited to the party. Goldman Sachs recently slapped a Sell rating on the stock and lowered their price target to $17.00.
Their concern? The risk-reward profile is still "skewing negatively."
The company is still technically in the red. They pushed back their "forecasted breakeven date" to sometime in 2026. For many investors, "maybe next year" is a tired song they've heard too many times. There is also the "dis-economies of scale" problem. Basically, it costs a lot of money to hire people to go out and sign up local mom-and-pop shops. If the revenue doesn't grow fast enough to cover those sales salaries, the model breaks.
Real Talk on the Numbers
- Market Cap: Roughly $680 million.
- Active Customers: Hovering around 16.1 million.
- Cash on Hand: About $238.5 million (as of Sept 2025).
That cash pile is the fuse on the bomb. If they can't turn the corner to consistent profitability before that runs low, they’ll have to dilute the stock even more with another offering.
What Most People Get Wrong About Groupon
People think Groupon is dying because they don't see the emails in their inbox anymore. But the strategy has shifted away from "spamming your email" to "being the destination."
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They are rebuilding the app to be map-heavy. The goal is "hyperlocal navigation"—helping you find a deal within walking distance of where you are standing right now. It's less about the 50% off coupon and more about the "I'm hungry and this place is two blocks away" convenience.
Also, the leadership changed. Again. As of September 2025, Rana Kashyap took over as CFO. New blood usually means a fresh look at the balance sheet, which often leads to more "trimming the fat" before a potential sale or a major rally.
Actionable Insights for Watching the Stock
If you're tracking the price of groupon stock, don't just look at the daily ticker. Watch these three things instead:
- The Breakeven Report: The moment Groupon reports a "real" (not adjusted) GAAP profit, the stock will likely move violently. Watch the upcoming Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 reports.
- Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): If marketing expenses stay at 37% of gross profit or higher without a massive jump in new users, be careful.
- The AI Pivot: Watch for mentions of "conversational commerce" in their earnings calls. If they successfully integrate into AI search engines, they could bypass the traditional (and expensive) Google Ad cycle.
Honestly, Groupon is a high-beta play. It's for people who believe in the "turnaround" story. It is not a "set it and forget it" blue chip. Keep your eye on the $15.50 support level—if it breaks below that, the "Sell" crowd might win the narrative for the rest of the quarter.
Keep a close eye on the next earnings release scheduled for early 2026. This will be the true test of whether the "Things To Do" strategy is actually putting money in the bank or just masking a deeper decline. If you're looking to enter, wait for a consolidation period rather than chasing the 10% daily spikes that have become common for GRPN.