The era of the "participation trophy" bowl game is dead. Honestly, it has been dying for a decade, but we’re now seeing the full-scale evolution of how college athletes view their labor. Every December, fans tune in to the Pop-Tarts Bowl or the ReliaQuest Bowl only to realize the star quarterback and the All-American edge rusher aren't on the sidelines. They aren't injured. They aren't suspended. They just isn't there. When players opt out of bowl games, it sparks a massive debate between the "play for the love of the game" traditionalists and the "get your money" realists.
It's a business. College football has always been a business for the universities and the networks, but now the players are finally treating it like one too.
Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette basically blew the doors off this thing back in 2016. At the time, people lost their minds. "How could they abandon their teammates?" "What about the tradition?" Fast forward to today, and if a projected first-round pick doesn't opt out of a non-playoff bowl, NFL scouts actually start asking questions about their decision-making process. It’s a total 180-degree shift in culture.
The Risk of the "One Last Game" Mentality
Why do they do it? Money. Plain and simple.
Think about Jaylon Smith. In the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, the Notre Dame linebacker was a locked-in top-five pick. Then, in a split second, his knee shredded. He suffered significant nerve damage. He dropped to the second round, losing millions of dollars in his rookie contract instantly. While he eventually made it to the Pro Bowl, his career trajectory was forever altered by a game that, in the grand scheme of the national championship race, didn't really matter.
When players opt out of bowl games, they aren't just "quitting." They are conducting a risk-management assessment. For a guy like Caleb Williams or Marvin Harrison Jr., playing in a mid-tier bowl game is like betting $30 million on a single hand of blackjack where the only prize for winning is a commemorative hat and a gift suite worth about five grand. The math just doesn't add up.
The Transfer Portal and the December Chaos
It isn't just about the NFL Draft anymore. The calendar is broken.
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Right now, the early signing period, the transfer portal opening, and bowl preparations all happen at the exact same time. It’s total madness for coaches and players alike. If a player knows he’s transferring to find more playing time or a better NIL deal, staying for the bowl game is awkward at best and counterproductive at worst.
Coaches leave too. Look at Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame for LSU before a major bowl, or Lincoln Riley bolting Oklahoma for USC. If the CEO can walk out on the company for a better paycheck before the "big project" is finished, it’s hard to tell a 20-year-old kid he owes it to the "family" to risk his ACL in the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
The NIL Factor
Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) was supposed to keep players in school longer. In some cases, it has. But it also creates a situation where a player might feel more loyalty to their personal brand or their future collective than the specific patch on their jersey for a post-season exhibition.
How These Decisions Impact the Product on the Field
Let’s be real: the games can get ugly. When a team has fifteen players opt out of bowl games, you’re basically watching a glorified spring game.
Look at the 2023 Orange Bowl. Florida State, snubbed from the playoffs and missing nearly nearly every meaningful starter due to opt-outs and portal entries, got smoked 63-3 by Georgia. Was that a "prestige" bowl? On paper, yes. In reality, it was a massacre that proved the current bowl system is struggling to remain relevant in the age of the 12-team playoff.
But there's a silver lining. These vacancies give us a preview of next year. We get to see the four-star freshman quarterback who has been sitting on the bench all year. We see the backup linebacker who is hungry to prove he deserves the starting spot in the fall. For die-hard fans, it’s a scouting mission. For the casual viewer, it’s often a reason to change the channel.
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The 12-Team Playoff: A Cure or a Curse?
The expansion of the College Football Playoff is the biggest variable in this whole equation.
If you're in the bracket, you play. Nobody is opting out of a quarterfinal game at the Rose Bowl with a national title on the line. The stakes are too high, and the competitive drive of these athletes is too strong. However, for the thirty-odd bowl games that aren't part of the playoff, the "opt-out" problem is only going to get worse.
We are moving toward a two-tiered post-season:
- The Games That Matter (The Playoff).
- The Corporate Exhibitions (Everything else).
In the second category, expect more opt-outs, more coaching changes, and more roster turnover. It’s the new normal.
Understanding the Scout's Perspective
I've talked to people in league circles who say they don't care about the opt-out itself, but they care about the "why." If a player is opting out because they are genuinely protecting a high draft stock, scouts get it. If a player is opting out of a bowl game when they are projected as a seventh-round pick just because they "don't feel like playing," that raises red flags about their love for football.
It’s a nuanced distinction.
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What Fans Get Wrong
Fans often scream about "loyalty to the school." But the school isn't loyal to the player. If a player gets hurt and can't perform, his scholarship is often the only thing protected—not his future earning potential. The fans will move on to the next recruit in six months. The player has to live with his body for the next sixty years.
The Future of Bowl Season
We might see bowl games start offering "participation NIL" bonuses. Imagine a world where a bowl sponsor like Cheez-It or TaxSlayer pays the top players $50,000 just to suit up and play. We aren't there yet, but with the way money is flowing, don't rule it out.
Until then, the trend of players opt out of bowl games will continue to accelerate. It’s a logical response to an illogical system that asks players to take professional-grade risks for amateur-level rewards.
If you want to understand the modern landscape of college football, you have to stop looking at it through the lens of 1985. The "glory days" of every bowl game being a life-or-death struggle are over. We are watching the professionalization of the sport in real-time.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
- Check the "Two-Deep" rosters: Before placing any bets on a bowl game, don't look at the regular-season stats. Look at who is actually boarding the plane. A 10-win team missing its star QB and three offensive linemen is not the same team that won those 10 games.
- Follow local beat writers: National news often catches opt-outs late. Local reporters covering the specific team will usually mention who isn't practicing weeks before the game.
- Watch for "Draft Grades": Players who receive a first or second-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Council are the most likely candidates to sit out.
- Don't begrudge the kids: Recognize that for many of these players, a bowl game is the final hurdle between a lifetime of debt and generational wealth.
- Focus on the "New Star" narratives: Shift your perspective. Instead of mourning the players who aren't there, look at the bowl game as the "Game 0" of the next season. It’s a chance to see the future of the program.
The landscape is shifting, and while it might feel like the tradition is slipping away, the reality is that the players are finally gaining the agency they've deserved for decades. The bowl games will survive—they just might look a little different than they used to.