You wake up, check your portfolio, and there it is—that familiar splash of red next to the NVDA ticker. It’s annoying. Especially when you consider that Jensen Huang basically just took a victory lap at CES last week. NVIDIA is down today, and if you’re looking at the ticker right now (Saturday, January 17, 2026), you’re seeing the aftermath of a week that’s been a total rollercoaster.
Friday's close saw the stock dip around 1.5% to $186.24. It’s not a crash. But for the world’s most valuable company, every percentage point feels like a minor earthquake.
So, what’s actually happening? It’s a messy mix of geopolitics, billionaire sell-offs, and some surprisingly annoying supply chain hiccups. Honestly, it’s rarely just one thing with a stock this big.
The China Headache Nobody Saw Coming
The biggest reason why NVIDIA is down today stems from a report that hit the wires late Friday regarding the H200 chips. The Trump administration actually gave NVIDIA the green light to export these high-end AI chips to China, which should have been a win. But there's a catch. A big one.
The government slapped on a bunch of new "security requirements" that have the industry spooked. Even worse? Financial Times reported that several key parts suppliers for the H200 have actually halted production. Why? Because Chinese customs officials started blocking shipments of the components needed to build the damn things.
It’s a classic bottleneck. You have the permission to sell the chip, but you can’t get the parts to finish it. This kind of supply chain friction is exactly what makes investors jumpy. They hate uncertainty.
The Peter Thiel Factor
Then you’ve got the "smart money" making moves. News just broke that billionaire contrarian Peter Thiel and his fund, Thiel Macro, completely dumped their NVIDIA stake.
That hurts.
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Thiel didn't just trim his position; he exited entirely to go buy Apple and Microsoft instead. When a guy who’s known for seeing around corners exits a position, people notice. His logic? At a $4.5 trillion market cap, NVIDIA isn't a "growth stock" anymore—it’s a "macro indicator." Basically, it’s become so big that it moves with the global economy rather than its own innovation.
Profit Taking After the "Vera Rubin" Hype
Let’s be real: NVIDIA had an incredible run leading up to CES. Jensen Huang announced that the Vera Rubin chips—the successors to Blackwell—are already in full production. That is six months ahead of schedule.
Usually, that’s a "stock goes up" moment.
But we’re seeing a classic "sell the news" event. Traders bid the stock up in anticipation of the CES keynote, and now they’re cashing out. Plus, Friday was a major options expiration day. When billions of dollars in options contracts expire at once, it creates massive "gamma" volatility that often pushes the price down regardless of how good the company's tech is.
Is the AI Spending Boom Finally Cooling?
There's a growing whisper on Wall Street that we might be hitting "peak AI." It sounds crazy, but look at the numbers.
- Microsoft is starting to signal a slightly slower pace for data center builds.
- OpenAI is burning through cash at a rate that makes some VCs sweat.
- Alphabet is doubling down on its own custom TPU chips to avoid paying the "NVIDIA tax."
NVIDIA’s revenue grew 62% last quarter to a staggering $57 billion. But can they keep that up? To grow at that rate forever, they’d eventually need more money than actually exists in the global IT budget.
What You Should Actually Do Now
If you’re holding shares, don't panic. NVIDIA is down today, but the underlying business is still a beast. RBC just initiated the stock with an "Outperform" rating and a $253 price target. They think it's actually undervalued because it’s trading at 24x forward earnings—which is way lower than its 5-year average of 50x.
Here is the move:
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- Watch the $180 Support: If the stock drops below $180, we might see a deeper correction. If it holds, this is just a healthy "breather."
- Track the H200 Supply Chain: Keep an eye on those Chinese customs reports. If the parts start moving again, the stock will likely bounce back fast.
- Ignore the Daily Noise: If your timeline is 2027 or 2028, a 1.5% drop on a Friday is literally nothing. The Blackwell ramp is just starting, and Vera Rubin is coming early.
NVIDIA has a $500 billion backlog of orders. Think about that. Even if competition from AMD or custom chips grows, NVIDIA has enough work booked to keep the lights on—and the profits soaring—for a long, long time.
Actionable Insight: For long-term investors, today's dip represents a valuation reset rather than a structural failure. Monitor the February 24, 2026 earnings call for official guidance on how the Chinese shipment blocks are affecting the bottom line. If the company maintains its mid-70% gross margin targets despite these tariffs, the current "red" on your screen will likely be a distant memory by spring.