New York's 11th Congressional District is an outlier. Honestly, if you look at a map of New York City's political leanings, the 11th sticks out like a sore thumb. While the rest of the city tends to paint itself in varying shades of deep blue, the 11th—which covers all of Staten Island and a slice of South Brooklyn including neighborhoods like Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights—is the only "swing" seat left in the five boroughs.
It’s a place where political careers are made, lost, and occasionally resurrected.
The Identity Crisis of New York's 11th Congressional District
The 11th is fundamentally different from its neighbors. You’ve got the suburban, often conservative feel of Staten Island clashing and blending with the increasingly diverse, yet historically working-class communities of Brooklyn. This mix creates a unique political ecosystem. It's not just about Republicans versus Democrats here; it's about a specific brand of New York populism that defies easy categorization.
Residents here often feel like the "forgotten borough" (in the case of Staten Island) or the "ignored edge" of Brooklyn. This sentiment drives much of the voting behavior. People want to know who is going to keep their property taxes down and who is going to make sure the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge toll doesn't keep climbing toward the stratosphere. It's practical. It's visceral.
A History of Back-and-Forth
The seat has a reputation for being "purple," but that doesn't mean it stays in the middle. It swings. Hard.
We saw this clearly over the last decade. In 2018, Max Rose, a moderate Democrat and combat veteran, pulled off what many thought was impossible by flipping the seat during the "Blue Wave." He spoke a language that resonated with the district—tough, pragmatic, and willing to buck his own party. But the honeymoon didn't last. By 2020, Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican who had previously run for Mayor of New York, reclaimed the seat for the GOP.
Why? Because the 11th is highly sensitive to the national mood but views it through a local lens. When "Defund the Police" became a national slogan, it landed with a heavy thud in a district that is home to thousands of active and retired NYPD officers, firefighters, and other first responders. Malliotakis leaned into that, and it worked.
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The Brooklyn Factor: More Than Just a Slice
While Staten Island provides the bulk of the votes, the Brooklyn portion of New York's 11th Congressional District is often where the narrowest margins are decided. Neighborhoods like Gravesend and Bath Beach have seen significant demographic shifts. You have a massive influx of Asian American voters and a steady presence of Eastern European immigrants.
These aren't monoliths.
For instance, in the 2022 midterms, we saw a noticeable shift among Asian American voters toward Republican candidates, driven by concerns over public safety and education policies (specifically the specialized high school admissions debate). This isn't just theory; the numbers in the 11th reflected a broader citywide trend that almost cost Democrats several seats they usually take for granted.
If you're looking at the district purely through the lens of Staten Island, you're missing half the story. The Brooklyn side acts as a buffer or a catalyst, depending on the year.
The "Forgotten Borough" Complex
You can't talk about this district without talking about the bridge. The Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge is the physical and psychological umbilical cord of the district. It’s also a massive financial burden.
Politicians in the 11th spend an inordinate amount of time talking about tolls. Why? Because for a resident of Tottenville or Great Kills, that toll is a daily tax on their existence. When a candidate promises to fight the MTA, they aren't just posturing; they are speaking to the primary financial grievance of their constituents.
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- The Toll Relief Program: This is a perennial campaign issue.
- Public Transit Deserts: Large swaths of Staten Island have no subway access, making cars a necessity, not a luxury.
- The Ferry: Still a lifeline, but one that only serves a specific part of the population.
Law Enforcement and the "Blue" Vote
This is arguably the most pro-police district in the entire Northeast. It’s not an exaggeration. According to census data and city records, Staten Island has one of the highest concentrations of municipal workers per capita in the country.
When national politics veers toward "progressive" criminal justice reform, the 11th usually recoils. This is why you see even the Democrats who run here—like Max Rose or former Congressman Michael McMahon—taking much more conservative stances on policing than their colleagues in Manhattan or Queens. If you don't support the badge in the 11th, you don't win. Period.
Redistricting Drama
We have to mention the 2022 redistricting chaos. Initially, the Democratic-led state legislature tried to redraw the 11th to include more progressive areas of Brooklyn, like Park Slope. The goal was obvious: make it easier for a Democrat to win.
It backfired.
The courts threw out those maps, calling them unconstitutional gerrymandering. The final map that was used—and is largely in place now—kept the district more or less "compact," which preserved its competitive nature. It was a massive win for the GOP and a reminder that in New York, the courts still have a say in how the lines are drawn.
Economic Realities and the Working Class
Basically, the 11th is a stronghold of the "middle" that feels squeezed. They aren't the ultra-wealthy of the Upper East Side, and they aren't the struggling residents of the city's poorest wards. They are homeowners. They care about property values, flood insurance (especially post-Sandy), and the cost of gas.
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- Flood Zones: Post-Hurricane Sandy, the 11th became a focal point for climate resilience. Thousands of homes were destroyed. The federal response—and the subsequent rise in insurance premiums—is still a hot-button issue.
- Small Business: The retail corridors on Hylan Boulevard or 86th Street in Brooklyn are the lifeblood of the local economy.
- Property Taxes: This is the "third rail" of local politics. Staten Islanders, in particular, feel they pay Manhattan prices for suburban-level services.
What to Watch in the Next Election Cycle
New York's 11th Congressional District is never "safe." While Nicole Malliotakis has built a formidable incumbency, the district's registered voter count still leans slightly Democratic or Independent.
The key for any challenger is the "Independent" block. These are the voters who don't care about party labels. They care about who is going to stop the migrant crisis from impacting their local community centers or who is going to ensure the 13th Avenue shopping district stays safe.
Lately, the migrant crisis has become the dominant narrative. Staten Island has seen several protests regarding the use of former schools or state facilities as shelters. This has galvanized the Republican base and put local Democrats in a very tight spot, forced to choose between party loyalty and constituent anger.
Actionable Insights for Residents and Observers
If you live in or follow the 11th, here is how to stay engaged and informed without getting lost in the noise:
- Follow the City Council and State Senate Overlap: Many of the issues that decide the Congressional race start at the local level. Keep an eye on the NYC Council's decisions regarding property tax reform, as this usually signals how the 11th will vote in November.
- Watch the Turnout in South Brooklyn: Staten Island is predictable. South Brooklyn is the wild card. If you see high turnout in Bay Ridge, it often signals a shift in the district's direction.
- Check the MTA Board Meetings: For residents, the MTA is as powerful as Congress. Decisions on the "Congestion Pricing" plan (which many in the 11th vehemently oppose) are a major driver of political sentiment.
- Engage with Local Community Boards: Community Boards 1, 2, and 3 on Staten Island are where the real granular fights happen—zoning, shelters, and infrastructure. These are the breeding grounds for future Congressional candidates.
The 11th isn't just a district; it's a barometer. It tells you exactly how the working-class outer boroughs feel about the direction of the country. Whether it stays red or flips back to blue, it will remain the most watched piece of real estate in New York politics.
To track the specific legislative record of your representative in the 11th, you should regularly check Congress.gov and search by district. This provides a transparent look at every bill sponsored or co-sponsored, moving past the campaign rhetoric and into actual policy. For local boundary updates and demographic breakdowns, the New York State Independent Redistricting Commission remains the most accurate resource for seeing how the lines might shift in the coming years.