You’d think a state with over 20 million people would be gaining power, right? Well, politics has a funny way of doing the opposite. If you're looking for the short answer: New York has 28 electoral votes for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections.
That’s a drop. A big one, if you look at the history books.
Honestly, it’s kinda wild how it happened. New York lost an electoral vote by the narrowest margin imaginable. We’re talking about 89 people. If 89 more people had filled out their census forms or stayed in the state, New York would still have 29 votes. Instead, that seat—and that influence—went to Minnesota.
The Math Behind the 28 Votes
How do we even get to 28? It’s not just a random number someone pulled out of a hat in Albany. The formula is basically high school civics, but with higher stakes.
Every state gets two votes for its Senators. No matter if you're tiny Rhode Island or massive California, you get two. Then, you add the number of Congressional districts the state has. New York currently has 26 districts in the House of Representatives.
2 Senators + 26 Representatives = 28 Electoral Votes.
It’s a winner-take-all system here. If a candidate wins the popular vote in the Empire State by one single vote or a million, they get all 28. No splitting, no participation trophies. This is why you rarely see presidential candidates spending millions on TV ads in Buffalo or Syracuse; since the state is so reliably "blue," the outcome feels like a foregone conclusion to the big campaigns.
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Why New York is Losing Its Grip
There was a time—back in the 1940s—when New York was the absolute king of the Electoral College. It had 47 votes. Forty-seven! To put that in perspective, that’s almost double what it has now.
Since then, it’s been a slow, steady slide down the mountain.
The 2020 Census was the latest blow. While New York’s population actually grew by about 4%, it didn't grow as fast as states like Texas or Florida. People are moving. They’re chasing lower taxes, warmer weather, or maybe just a backyard they don't have to share with eight million neighbors.
The "89 People" Heartbreak
It’s worth repeating because it’s so statistically insane. The Census Bureau uses a complicated mathematical process called the "Method of Equal Proportions" to hand out the 435 seats in the House. New York was next in line for the 435th seat.
But it missed.
Because the state fell short by 89 people, that final seat went to Minnesota. Think about all the people you see on a single subway car or in a midtown deli. That’s more than 89 people. That tiny gap shifted the balance of power in Washington.
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Does Having 28 Votes Still Matter?
You might think, "Eh, what's one vote?" But in a close election, one vote is everything. New York is now the fourth-largest prize in the country. It sits behind:
- California (54 votes)
- Texas (40 votes)
- Florida (30 votes)
New York used to be #3, but Florida hopped over it after the last count. This shift reflects a broader trend in American politics: power is moving South and West. The "Rust Belt" and the Northeast are shrinking in influence while the "Sun Belt" is booming.
Even with 28 votes, New York is still a "whale." You can’t win the presidency without a strategy for the big states, even if your strategy for New York is just "hope the base shows up."
The Safe State Paradox
Here’s the thing about New York's 28 electoral votes: they are almost a guarantee for the Democratic nominee. The last time a Republican won New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Because of this, New York sort of suffers from being "too safe."
Candidates don't visit much unless they're holding a high-dollar fundraiser in Manhattan. They don't talk about New York-specific issues like the MTA or upstate farming on the national stage as much as they talk about fracking in Pennsylvania or suburban voters in Arizona.
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However, we saw some interesting shifts in the 2024 cycle. While the 28 votes stayed blue, the margins tightened in places like Long Island and even parts of Queens. If New York ever truly became a "swing state," those 28 votes would become the most valuable real estate in the political world.
Looking Ahead to 2030
The 28 votes we have now are locked in for the 2028 election. But the chatter for 2030 has already started.
Some demographers are predicting New York could lose another two seats in the next census if current migration trends hold. If that happens, New York could drop to 26 votes. We’re watching a slow-motion rebalancing of the American map.
What You Can Do
If you feel like your voice gets lost in the "winner-take-all" shuffle, you aren't alone. There's a lot of talk about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. New York has already signed onto this.
Basically, it's an agreement where states promise to give their electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote, but it only kicks in once enough states join to reach 270. Until then, we’re stuck with the current math.
Next Steps for the Curious Voter:
- Check your registration: Even in a "safe" state, down-ballot races (like your local Representative) are decided by tiny margins.
- Watch the 2030 Census: When the time comes, make sure you're counted. As we saw, 89 people can change history.
- Follow the redistricting news: New York's internal lines are often tied up in court battles; knowing which district you’re in helps you understand who is representing those 28 votes in D.C.
The 28 votes are a reflection of New York's current standing—still a heavyweight, but one that's losing a bit of its punch as the rest of the country grows.