October 2025 felt like a decade squeezed into 31 days for anyone holding a brokerage account with Tesla inside it. If you were watching the tickers, you saw a chart that looked less like a steady growth line and more like a heart rate monitor at a horror movie. Honestly, it was a wild ride. We saw the stock hovering near $459 at the start of the month, only to watch it get dragged through the mud and eventually settle around $456 by Halloween.
But looking at the price alone is sorta like judging a book by its cover—and then realizing the cover is on fire. Between the Q3 earnings call and the absolute chaos of the Robotaxi rollout in Austin, the latest news and projections for TSLA stock October 2025 tell a much deeper story about where this company is actually headed in 2026.
The Q3 Earnings Reality Check
Tesla dropped its Q3 2025 earnings report on October 22, and it was... well, it was a mixed bag that had analysts arguing in circles.
Total revenue hit $28.1 billion, which is a 12% jump year-over-year. That sounds great on paper. You’ve got the Megafactory in Shanghai ramping up and Powerwall deployments hitting record highs. Energy storage is basically the "quiet kid" in the back of the class who’s suddenly getting straight A’s, contributing a record $1.1 billion in gross profit this quarter.
But then you look at the car side of things. Automotive gross margins were the big bogeyman here. While deliveries hit a record 497,000 for the quarter, the operating margin sat at a lean 5.8%. Compare that to the double-digit glory days, and you start to see why the "bears" are growling.
Investors are worried that people only bought those cars because of the $7,500 federal tax credit that's rumored to vanish by the end of 2025. If that credit dies, do the sales die with it? That’s the $1.4 trillion question.
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Robotaxis: From Hype to Highway
We can't talk about October without talking about the Robotaxi service. On October 2, 2025, Tesla reported record deliveries, but the real fireworks happened with the expansion of the autonomous fleet.
Elon Musk confirmed that the Austin fleet would scale to 500 cars by year-end. He’s also eyeing 1,000 cars in the Bay Area. But it hasn't been smooth sailing.
The service technically launched in June with human "safety monitors" in modified Model Ys. By October, the internet was flooded with videos of these cars doing some pretty questionable stuff—dropping people off in the middle of busy intersections or getting confused by basic traffic violations.
Then there's the software. FSD v14 finally started rolling out to customers on October 7. This was the first major update in nearly a year. It fixed the "brake-stabbing" issue where the car would slam on the brakes for no reason, which, let's be real, was terrifying. It also added a new "Sloth" speed profile for people who want the car to drive like a nervous grandmother.
What the Big Money Thinks
If you ask five different analysts about the latest news and projections for TSLA stock October 2025, you’ll get six different answers. It’s polarized.
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- The Bulls: Dan Ives at Wedbush is still pounding the table with a $600 price target. He’s looking at the AI story—Optimus and the FSD licensing potential.
- The Skeptics: JPMorgan is way on the other side, keepin’ their target around $135. They think the 20-30% delivery growth forecast for next year is "ebullient" (which is just a fancy way of saying "too optimistic").
- The Middle Ground: Morgan Stanley is sitting at $425, basically saying, "We believe in the tech, but the execution risk is massive."
The valuation is currently sitting at a P/E ratio of roughly 292. That is sky-high. You aren't paying for a car company at that price; you’re paying for a future where robots do our chores and cars drive themselves while we sleep.
The "Model 2" Mystery
What happened to the affordable $25,000 Tesla? Code-named "Project Redwood," this is the car that’s supposed to save the volume growth.
In October, the word from the grapevine was that production is still slated for late 2025 at Giga Texas. They’re using this "unboxed" manufacturing process that supposedly cuts costs by 50%. If they pull it off, they might actually be able to fight off the massive wave of cheap EVs coming out of China. If they don't? Well, the "Hold" ratings on the stock start to look a lot more like "Sell" ratings.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at your portfolio and wondering what to do with this info, here's how to parse the noise.
Watch the 10-billion-mile mark. Musk admitted in early 2026 that they need 10 billion miles of FSD data for true unsupervised driving. They hit 7 billion in late 2025. Based on the current rate, they might hit that magic number around July 2026. Keep an eye on the mileage updates in quarterly reports.
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Don't ignore the energy sector. The car business is low-margin right now because of the price wars. The energy storage business (Megapack) is where the "hidden" profit is growing. If car sales flatline but energy storage doubles, the stock might still find a floor.
The Tax Credit Cliff. If you’re thinking about buying, realize that Q4 2025 might be "inflated" by people rushing to buy before the tax credits expire. Expect a potential hangover in Q1 2026.
Technical Support Levels. The stock found strong support near the $415-$421 range in October. If it dips below $400, the next major "floor" isn't until the 200-day moving average, which is way down near **$363**.
The latest news and projections for TSLA stock October 2025 show a company in a messy transition. It’s moving from being a "car company that does tech" to an "AI company that happens to make cars." That transition is rarely a straight line.
Next Steps for You:
You should check the upcoming Q4 delivery numbers (usually released in the first week of January) to see if the "tax credit rush" actually happened. It’ll tell you if the October momentum was real or just a temporary spike.