Politics is brutal. One minute you're the face of a movement, and the next, you're looking at a concession speech. That’s basically what happened in 2024. For the first time since the "Squad" essentially reinvented progressive politics in 2018, the armor cracked. It wasn't just a small dent, either.
When a squad member loses primary battles, people start hunting for a "grand theory." Is the progressive movement dead? Was it just the money? The truth is usually way more messy than a headline. In 2024, two original members—Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri—saw their congressional careers end at the hands of fellow Democrats.
This wasn't some random fluke.
The $25 Million Elephant in the Room
You can't talk about these races without talking about the cash. It was everywhere. In New York’s 16th District, the primary between Jamaal Bowman and George Latimer became the most expensive House primary in the history of the United States. Think about that for a second. We are talking about nearly $25 million spent on a single seat.
A huge chunk of that came from United Democracy Project, which is the super PAC linked to AIPAC. They didn't just spend money; they flooded the zone. If you lived in Westchester at the time, you couldn't open your mailbox or turn on YouTube without seeing an ad about Bowman.
But here is the thing people miss. The ads weren't usually about Israel or Gaza, even though that’s why the PACs were involved. They were about local competence. They painted Bowman as someone more interested in national fame and "theatre" than fixing the potholes in Yonkers. That’s a lethal narrative for an incumbent. Honestly, once that "out of touch" label sticks, it's incredibly hard to peel off.
Why Jamaal Bowman Was the First to Fall
Bowman’s loss was loud. He’s a loud guy—charismatic, energetic, a former middle school principal who knows how to command a room. But the 2024 cycle was different. His district had been redrawn to include more of suburban Westchester and less of the Bronx.
Suburban voters are a different breed. They care about stability. When Bowman pulled that fire alarm in a House office building during a chaotic funding vote, his opponents ran with it. They didn't call him a radical; they called him a distraction.
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George Latimer, his opponent, was the perfect foil. Latimer had been the County Executive for years. He’s the guy who knows everyone's name at the local diner. He leaned into the "steady hand" persona. By the time the squad member loses primary headlines hit the wires, the margin wasn't even close. Bowman lost by double digits. It was a clear signal that being a national progressive star doesn't always translate to local job security when a well-funded, well-known moderate decides to challenge you.
Cori Bush and the St. Louis Shift
Then came August. Everyone was watching Missouri’s 1st District. Cori Bush, a nurse and activist who rose to prominence during the Ferguson protests, was facing Wesley Bell.
Bell was a prosecutor. More importantly, he was a progressive prosecutor who had his own ties to the Ferguson movement. This made the "moderate vs. radical" storyline a bit more complicated. Bell wasn't a corporate Republican in disguise; he was a guy who knew how to navigate the system.
Bush had some heavy baggage going into the vote. There was a federal investigation into her use of campaign funds for security services (she hired her husband, which, while she claimed was legal and necessary for her safety, looked terrible in campaign mailers).
- AIPAC spent over $8 million to unseat her.
- She missed a significant number of votes in D.C.
- Her "Defund the Police" rhetoric, which she refused to soften, became a massive target in a city struggling with crime.
When the results came in, Bush lost 45% to Bell’s 51%. It was the second major domino to fall. Two losses in one summer. The narrative that the Squad was "unbeatable" was officially over.
The Geography of Discontent
It's tempting to say this is all about one issue, but that's lazy. If you look at where a squad member loses primary vs. where they win, a pattern emerges. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) sailed through her primary. Why? Because she has mastered the "inside-outside" game. She does the big national rallies, sure, but she also delivers for her district in Queens.
Rashida Tlaib is another example. She’s arguably the most vocal critic of the administration on foreign policy, yet she remains incredibly popular in her Michigan district. She’s built a ground game that is basically a fortress.
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Bowman and Bush struggled because their opponents successfully argued that their national activism came at the expense of their constituents. It’s the "Pothole vs. Policy" debate. If you’re going to be a firebrand in Washington, you better make sure the mail is being delivered and the federal grants are hitting your district's bank account. If you miss that, you're vulnerable.
The Role of Redistricting and New Voters
We have to talk about the maps. In many of these cases, the lines were moved. When you have a district that gets "whiter" or "wealthier" or more "suburban" due to redistricting, a radical progressive brand can suddenly feel like a bad fit.
In Bowman’s case, the addition of more centrist voters in Westchester changed the math. You can't just win on the energy of the base if the base is now only 40% of the electorate. You have to persuade the middle. And the middle in 2024 was feeling anxious about the economy, crime, and global instability. They weren't in the mood for a revolution; they were in the mood for a resume.
Misconceptions About the Losses
One big mistake people make is thinking these losses mean the ideas are unpopular. That’s not necessarily true. If you poll Medicare for All or Green New Deal policies individually, they often still pull high numbers in these districts.
The issue was the messenger.
Voters in these primaries often said they liked the goals but hated the drama. The "theatre" of politics—the social media spats, the symbolic protests—started to grate on people who were worried about their groceries costing 20% more than they did three years ago. The challengers didn't run as conservatives. They ran as "results-oriented Democrats." It’s a subtle distinction, but it’s why they won.
What Happens to the Progressive Movement Now?
The Squad isn't gone. Not by a long shot. Summer Lee won her primary in Pennsylvania despite heavy spending against her. Ilhan Omar survived a close call in Minnesota. Ayanna Pressley remains a powerhouse in Boston.
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But the strategy is shifting. You’re seeing AOC take a more "institutional" role, working closer with leadership. You’re seeing others focus more on legislative wins than viral moments. They’ve realized that the "insurgent" energy that gets you into office isn't always the same energy that keeps you there.
The lesson of 2024 is that no one is safe. If a squad member loses primary challenges, it serves as a wake-up call for the rest of the caucus. You have to defend your seat every two years like it’s your first time running.
Actionable Takeaways for Following Primary Politics
If you want to understand these races before they hit the news, stop looking at national polls. They don't matter. Look at these three things instead:
1. Follow the FEC Filings Early
Don't wait for the TV ads. Look at the quarterly reports. If an incumbent is being out-raised by a local challenger four months before the vote, they are in deep trouble. Pay attention to "independent expenditures"—that’s where the real power (and the "dark money") hides.
2. Watch the "Constituent Services" Messaging
If an incumbent starts posting a lot of photos of themselves at local post offices or announcing small bridge grants, they are scared. It means their internal polling shows voters think they are "too national."
3. Check the Voter Turnout Demographics
Progressives win when young people and new voters show up. If a primary is held on a date or in a climate where only "reliable" (older) voters show up, the moderate challenger has a massive advantage.
The era of the "invincible progressive" is over, but that just means the movement is entering a new, more mature phase. It's moving from the streets to the committee rooms, and that transition is always going to have some casualties.
To stay ahead of the next cycle, keep an eye on districts where the "Squad" brand is being tested by local officials who have deep roots and boring—but effective—platforms. That is where the next big upset will happen. Success in Congress is no longer just about the number of followers you have; it's about whether the people back home think you're actually doing the job they hired you for.