The rivalry between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers is the oldest in the NFL, but honestly, if you’re a fan in the Windy City, it hasn't felt much like a rivalry lately. It’s been more of a lopsided streak that defies the law of averages. Every time these two teams meet, the narrative seems to reset, yet the result stays the same. The Packers win. The Bears lose. It’s a loop that has haunted Chicago through multiple coaching regimes, different front offices, and a carousel of quarterbacks that would make a carnival-goer dizzy.
When the Bears beat the Packers, it isn't just a win in the standings. It’s a cultural event in the Midwest. It’s the kind of Sunday that changes the mood in every bar from Wrigleyville down to the South Side. But those Sundays have become incredibly rare. We are talking about a stretch of dominance by Green Bay that has flipped the script on what used to be a back-and-forth battle for divisional supremacy.
The Mental Hurdle of the Green Bay Streak
There’s a specific kind of psychological weight that comes with a losing streak this long. It’s not just about the X’s and O’s on the field. It’s about the "here we go again" feeling that creeps into the stadium the moment something goes wrong. Whether it’s a missed field goal or a late-game interception, the ghost of Aaron Rodgers—and now the emergence of Jordan Love—seems to hang over Soldier Field.
The last time the Chicago Bears truly had the upper hand was back in 2018. That was the year Matt Nagy looked like a genius, Mitchell Trubisky was making Pro Bowls, and Vic Fangio’s defense was eating everyone alive. On December 16, 2018, Chicago secured a 24-17 victory. It clinched the NFC North. It felt like a changing of the guard. Fans were convinced that the days of being bullied by Green Bay were over.
They weren't.
Since that afternoon, the Packers have gone on a tear that has left Chicago reeling. We’ve seen 10 straight wins for the Packers. That’s five years of total silence for Bears fans. When you look at the history of the NFL, these kinds of streaks usually happen between a powerhouse and a bottom-feeder, not between two historic franchises with massive budgets and rabid fanbases.
The Jordan Love Transition and the 2023 Reality Check
Most people thought that when Aaron Rodgers finally left for the New York Jets, the door would swing wide open for Chicago. Rodgers was the "owner" of the Bears. He said it himself. He screamed it at the fans. And frankly, the numbers backed him up. But then 2023 happened.
Jordan Love stepped in, and the fear was that he’d be just another Hall of Fame talent waiting in the wings. In the season opener at Soldier Field, the Bears had every opportunity to set a new tone. They had Justin Fields. They had a revamped roster. Instead, the Packers walked away with a 38-20 victory. It was a gut punch. It proved that the problem wasn't just Rodgers; it was a systemic advantage Green Bay seemed to hold over their rivals to the south.
The season finale in January 2024 was even more telling. The Bears defense had become one of the best in the league over the second half of the season. They were flying around, forcing turnovers, and looking like a unit that could shut anyone down. Yet, in a "must-win" environment for the Packers to make the playoffs, Green Bay ground out a 17-9 win. The Bears didn't even score a touchdown.
Why the Bears Struggle to Close the Gap
You have to look at the philosophy of the two organizations to understand why the Bears beat the Packers so infrequently these days. Green Bay has had unprecedented stability at the quarterback position for thirty years. Favre to Rodgers to Love. That is a linear progression of elite play that allows a team to overcome mistakes elsewhere on the roster.
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Chicago, meanwhile, has been searching for "The Guy" since Sid Luckman was wearing leather helmets. It’s a bit of an exaggeration, sure, but not by much. The Bears try to build through defense and a strong running game, which is the classic "Bears Way." But in the modern NFL, if you can’t drop back and throw for 300 yards when the game is on the line, you’re playing with one hand tied behind your back.
- Quarterback Play: Green Bay consistently gets higher EPA (Expected Points Added) from their signal-callers in rivalry games.
- Offensive Line Continuity: The Packers have a knack for developing mid-round tackles into stars, keeping their QBs clean.
- The Turnover Margin: In the last ten meetings, Chicago has consistently lost the turnover battle, often in their own half of the field.
It’s also about the coaching matchups. Matt LaFleur has had the number of every Bears coach he's faced. His scheme creates easy looks for young receivers, whereas Chicago's offense often looks like it’s grinding gears just to get a first down.
The 2018 Game: A Blueprint for Success
If the Bears want to flip the script, they have to look at what worked on that cold December day in 2018. It wasn't just luck. That defense, led by Khalil Mack, didn't just play well; they intimidated. They sacked Rodgers five times. They hit him another six. They made him uncomfortable from the first snap.
On offense, they didn't ask the quarterback to do too much. They used creative play-calling—remember "Santa's Sleigh"?—and relied on a balanced attack. It’s the only way to beat a team like Green Bay. You can't out-finesse them. You have to punch them in the mouth and then keep punching until the clock hits zero.
Caleb Williams and the New Era
Now, we are in the era of Caleb Williams. The expectations couldn't be higher. When the Bears drafted him first overall, the unspoken mandate was simple: beat Green Bay. Nobody cares about 10-win seasons if you’re 0-2 against the Packers.
The 2024-2025 cycle represents the best chance Chicago has had in a decade. They have elite wide receivers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. They have a defense that started playing like a top-five unit at the end of last year. But most importantly, they have a quarterback with the "it" factor—the kind of talent that shouldn't be intimidated by the history of the rivalry.
Still, Green Bay isn't going anywhere. Jordan Love proved he’s the real deal by taking that team to a blowout playoff win in Dallas. The Packers are young, fast, and they have the confidence of a team that simply expects to win this game every single time.
What Needs to Change for Chicago
For the Bears beat the Packers narrative to actually become a reality again, three things have to happen.
First, the offensive line has to hold up. In the 2023 meetings, the Bears’ pass protection crumbled at the worst possible moments. You cannot give Green Bay extra possessions because of strip-sacks or holding penalties that kill drives.
Second, the coaching staff needs to be aggressive. Too often, Chicago has played "not to lose" against the Packers. They take the points, they punt on 4th and short, and they play conservatively. You don't beat the Packers by being safe. You beat them by taking shots.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, they have to finish. There have been so many games in the last five years where Chicago was leading or tied in the third quarter, only to fall apart in the fourth. It’s a conditioning and a focus issue.
The Historical Context You Can’t Ignore
We often forget that the Bears actually led the all-time series for decades. Decades! It wasn't until the Rodgers era that Green Bay finally pulled ahead. As of right now, the Packers lead the series 107-95-6. That 12-game gap is almost entirely due to the current streak.
If you’re a younger fan, you might think the Packers have always been the big brother. But the older generation remembers when the Bears were the monsters of the midway and Green Bay was the "frozen tundra" where dreams went to die. The pendulum always swings eventually. The question is whether the current regime in Chicago has the stomach to push it back the other direction.
The Impact on the Fans
The frustration in Chicago is palpable. It’s not just a sports thing; it’s a pride thing. When the Packers win, the "Go Pack Go" chants in Soldier Field are a direct insult to the city. It’s reached a point where the rivalry feels a bit broken because one side hasn't been holding up its end of the bargain.
But that’s why the next time the Bears beat the Packers, it will be the biggest story in the NFL. The dam has to break at some point. Whether it’s a rainy night in November or a snowy afternoon in January, that win will feel like a Super Bowl for a fanbase that has been starving for relevance in their own backyard.
Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you’re betting on the game or just watching with friends, keep your eyes on these specific factors:
- The First Quarter Score: Green Bay thrives on early leads. If Chicago can hold them scoreless in the first 15 minutes, the pressure shifts immensely.
- Third-Down Conversion Rates: This is where Green Bay usually wins. They stay on the field; Chicago goes three-and-out. Watch the "chains" carefully.
- Pressure Without Blitzing: If the Bears can get to the quarterback using only their front four, they can drop seven into coverage and take away the quick slants that Green Bay loves.
- Red Zone Efficiency: Field goals don't beat the Packers. If the Bears are settling for three points inside the 20-yard line, they’re going to lose.
The path forward for Chicago is narrow, but it's visible. It requires a level of precision and "don't-blink" toughness that hasn't been present for a long time. But with a new quarterback and a chip on their shoulder, the Bears might finally be ready to remind the world why this is the greatest rivalry in football.
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To prepare for the next installment of this rivalry, fans should monitor the injury reports specifically regarding the offensive tackles. Success in this matchup almost always comes down to which team can protect the edges of the pocket. If Chicago's tackles can neutralize the Green Bay pass rush, they give their rookie quarterback the time needed to exploit a secondary that has shown flashes of vulnerability. Additionally, tracking the defensive turnover margin in the three games leading up to the rivalry match will provide a clear indicator of which unit has the momentum to change the game's outcome.