Honestly, if you’re looking at the headlines in early 2026 and feeling completely lost about how we got here, you aren't alone. It’s been over a decade since this mess actually started, even though most of the world only tuned in when the "big" invasion hit in 2022. To understand why is russia and ukraine at war, you have to stop looking at it as a single event. It’s more like a giant, messy pile of history, ego, and broken promises.
Basically, Russia—or more specifically, Vladimir Putin—refuses to see Ukraine as a truly separate, sovereign country. He’s said as much in long, rambling essays and speeches. To the Kremlin, Ukraine is "Little Russia," a part of their family that’s been brainwashed by the West. Ukraine, meanwhile, has spent the last 30 years trying to sprint away from that "family" toward Europe and democracy.
When those two things collided, people started dying.
The Identity Crisis: Why is Russia and Ukraine at War?
The root of this isn't just about land; it's about control. Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine has been in a tug-of-war. One side wanted to keep things cozy with Moscow. The other side looked at Poland or Germany and said, "I want that."
In 2014, this boiled over. The "Euromaidan" protests happened because the then-president, Viktor Yanukovych, ditched a deal with the European Union at the last minute to take a payoff from Putin. Ukrainians flooded the streets. Yanukovych eventually fled to Russia, and Putin responded by seizing Crimea.
Why the Donbas Matters
After Crimea, Russia didn't stop. They backed "separatists" in eastern Ukraine—the Donbas region. It was a "frozen conflict" for eight years.
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- Casualties: Over 14,000 people died before 2022.
- The Goal: By keeping a war simmering in the east, Putin hoped to make Ukraine too "unstable" to ever join NATO or the EU.
But it backfired. Instead of scaring Ukrainians back into Russia's arms, the constant shelling in the east made them hate the Kremlin even more. It forged a national identity that was fiercely anti-Moscow.
The NATO Expansion Argument
You've probably heard the Russian talking point about NATO. Putin claims the U.S. and its allies promised not to move "one inch eastward" after the Cold War. He views NATO on his doorstep as a "loaded gun" pointed at Russia.
Is there any truth to it? Kinda. There were verbal discussions in the 90s, but nothing was ever put in a signed treaty. More importantly, countries like Poland, Estonia, and eventually Ukraine asked to join NATO because they were terrified of Russia.
By late 2021, Putin decided that a neutral Ukraine wasn't enough. He demanded a legal guarantee that Ukraine would never join the alliance. When the West said "no," he moved 190,000 troops to the border.
The 2022 Invasion and the Shift to Total War
On February 24, 2022, the world changed. Putin called it a "Special Military Operation." He claimed he was "denazifying" the country—a claim historians and the world's Jewish leaders called absurd, considering President Zelenskyy is Jewish and lost family in the Holocaust.
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The real goal? Topple Kyiv in three days. Install a puppet.
It failed miserably.
Ukraine fought back with a ferocity that stunned the Kremlin. Since then, the war has evolved into a brutal war of attrition. By January 2026, the front lines haven't moved massively in months, but the technology has. We’re seeing thousands of drones used every single week. Russia has leaned on North Korea and Iran for supplies, while Ukraine depends on a fluctuating flow of Western tech.
The Current State of Play in 2026
Right now, Russia occupies about 18-20% of Ukraine. They’ve "annexed" four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—even though they don't fully control all of them. In a weird twist, Ukraine even holds a small slice of Russian territory in the Kursk region after a surprise raid in 2024.
It’s a stalemate, but a bloody one.
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Misconceptions You Should Ignore
People often think this is just about "East vs. West." It’s not. It’s about the right to exist. If you ask a Ukrainian soldier why they’re fighting, they won't talk about NATO geopolitical theory. They’ll talk about Bucha—the suburb of Kyiv where Russian forces committed documented war crimes in 2022.
Another myth? That Russia is "running out" of money. Experts like those at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) note that Russia has pivoted to a "war economy." They're spending roughly 6-7% of their GDP on the military. They can keep this up for years because they’ve found ways around sanctions, mostly by selling oil to India and China.
What Happens Next?
If you’re looking for a clean ending, you won't find one here. Peace talks are mentioned constantly, but the terms are miles apart. Putin wants Ukraine to give up the land he’s stolen. Ukraine says giving up land just invites the next invasion in five years.
Practical Steps to Follow This Conflict:
- Watch the Energy Grid: Russia's current strategy is hitting power plants during the winter. If Ukraine’s grid collapses, we’ll see a massive new wave of refugees.
- Monitor the "Grey Zone": Look for cyberattacks or GPS jamming in Poland and the Baltics. This tells you if the war is spilling over.
- Check the Aid Packages: The war's outcome is tied directly to whether the U.S. and Europe keep sending long-range missiles and air defense. Without them, Russia's "slow but steady" advance becomes a sprint.
The war continues because neither side can afford to lose. For Putin, a loss is likely the end of his regime. For Ukraine, a loss is the end of their country.
To stay informed on specific frontline shifts, you should regularly check updates from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) or the Liveuamap interactive trackers, which provide the most granular data on territorial changes and daily strike patterns.