You’ve probably seen the headlines. Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has been a wild ride lately, and if you're holding a bag or just watching from the sidelines, you're likely asking: why is QUBT stock falling while the rest of the tech world seems to be obsessed with anything remotely related to AI?
The truth is kinda messy.
It’s a mix of massive shareholder dilution, a "valuation gap" that could make a seasoned value investor faint, and some internal moves that have people raising eyebrows. While the company is out here making "stalking horse" bids for Luminar’s assets and showing off at CES 2026, the market is currently more focused on the cold, hard numbers. And those numbers? They're pretty jarring.
The Dilution Disaster and Why is QUBT Stock Falling
If you want to know the single biggest reason why is QUBT stock falling, you have to look at the share count. Over the last three years, the company has basically quadrupled the number of shares outstanding. Honestly, it’s a bit of a nightmare for long-term holders. When a company issues that much new stock, your piece of the pie gets smaller and smaller.
They’re doing it to keep the lights on.
Because QUBT isn't making much money yet—we’re talking under $600,000 in revenue over the last four quarters—they have to sell stock to fund their R&D and pay the bills. Investors are getting tired of it. It’s hard to get excited about a "quantum breakthrough" when you know another secondary offering might be right around the corner to dilute your position again.
Insider Selling: A Warning Sign?
It’s never a great look when the people running the show are heading for the exits. In January 2026, COO Milan Begliarbekov sold nearly 3,000 shares. Sure, it was only about $33,000, but it follows a trend. Over the last few months, insiders like CEO Yuping Huang and Robert Fagenson have sold millions of dollars worth of stock.
Not one single insider has bought shares on the open market this year.
When the people who know the company best are selling into the rallies, it sends a signal to the rest of the market. It suggests that even the leadership might think the stock price got a bit ahead of itself during the 2025 hype cycle.
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A Valuation That Defies Logic
Let’s talk about the "bubble" word. Most quantum stocks are expensive, but QUBT is on another planet. At one point, it was trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of over 3,000. To put that in perspective, most "expensive" tech stocks trade at a P/S of 10 or 20.
- QUBT Revenue: ~$546,000 (Trailing 12 months)
- Market Cap: Roughly $2.3 billion to $2.8 billion depending on the day.
- The Problem: You’re paying billions for a company that makes less than a local McDonald’s franchise.
Even if you project their revenue to triple in 2026 as some analysts hope, the valuation is still sky-high. When the market gets shaky or interest rates don't drop as fast as people want, these "pure-play" speculative stocks are the first ones to get dumped. People are moving their money into safer bets like NVIDIA or Microsoft, where there’s actual profit to back up the hype.
The Luminar Gamble
Recently, QUBT made a move to acquire Luminar’s LiDAR and semiconductor business. Luminar itself has been through the wringer—filing for Chapter 11—and QUBT is stepping in as the "stalking horse" bidder.
On paper, this sounds smart. It gives them a foundry and helps them scale their photonic integrated circuits. But investors are skeptical. This deal could take a year to close. In the meantime, it’s another drain on resources for a company that is already burning through cash. It's a classic "show me" situation. The market doesn't want to hear about what might happen in 2027; they want to see revenue today.
The Competitive Gap
While QUBT is struggling to cross the $1 million revenue mark, its peers are starting to pull away.
- IonQ is projecting $200 million in sales for 2026.
- D-Wave is landing multi-million dollar deals in Europe.
- Rigetti has a clear roadmap for a 150-qubit system by the end of this year.
QUBT is increasingly seen as the "lagging" pure-play. They have great patents and a cool booth at CES, but they lack the commercial scale that the big institutional investors are looking for right now.
What Should You Do Now?
If you're looking at your screen and wondering if this is the bottom, keep a few things in mind. The stock is currently in a "cooling off" phase after a massive run in late 2025. It’s highly volatile. It can jump 10% on a NASA press release and drop 15% the next day on a filing.
Watch the $10 to $12 range. Many analysts have set price targets in this area as a "neutral" zone. If it breaks below $10, things could get ugly fast as momentum traders bail.
Wait for the March 19 earnings. That’s the next big catalyst. If they can show that their "Foundry-as-a-Service" or their NASA contracts are actually turning into meaningful cash, the narrative could shift. Until then, expect more of the same.
Stop looking at the daily 2% fluctuations. If you believe in the tech, you're playing a 5-year game. If you're looking for a quick flip, you're essentially gambling against professional short sellers and high-frequency algorithms that love to eat retail investors for breakfast.
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the cash runway: Read the next 10-Q filing to see how much of that $1.5 billion in liquidity is actually left after their recent acquisitions.
- Monitor the Luminar deal: Keep an eye on the bankruptcy court proceedings; any delay here will likely hurt the stock price further.
- Diversify: If QUBT is more than 5% of your portfolio, you're taking on massive "single-stock" risk in a sector that is notorious for "bursting bubbles." Consider balancing with a Quantum ETF to capture the industry growth without the specific QUBT dilution headaches.