Everything changed in May 2025. One minute, the world was watching a terrifying aerial dogfight over the Himalayas, and the next, Donald Trump was on Truth Social claiming he’d personally saved millions of lives. If you’ve been following the news lately, you know the vibe. It’s chaotic. It's loud. And it’s fundamentally shifted how we look at South Asian politics.
Honestly, the india pakistan donald trump dynamic has become the ultimate case study in "transactional diplomacy." For years, we were told India was the "indispensable partner" and Pakistan was basically the "problem child."
But then 2025 happened.
The "Long Night" and the Nobel Prize Obsession
It started with Operation Sindoor. India launched strikes on May 7, 2025, after a brutal attack in Pahalgam killed 26 civilians. The retaliation was swift. Drone strikes. Missile exchanges. Total panic in the international community.
Then came the "Long Night."
On May 10, Trump announced a "full and immediate" ceasefire. He didn't just announce it; he owned it. He’s mentioned it over 70 times since. He even told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he settled the war in "one day" using nothing but the threat of 200% tariffs.
Pakistan loved it.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif basically gave Trump a standing ovation on the global stage. Islamabad even nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Why? Because acknowledging Trump’s mediation gives Pakistan something it’s craved for decades: a third-party seat at the table.
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India, on the other hand, was not having it.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Modi have been incredibly consistent: no third parties. Period. They insist the ceasefire was a direct deal between military commanders (the DGMOs). To New Delhi, Trump’s "intervention" is a narrative he built to secure the Nobel Prize he thinks Barack Obama didn't deserve.
Tariffs, Russian Oil, and the "Howdy Modi" Hangover
Remember the "Howdy Modi" rally in Houston? That feels like a lifetime ago.
By August 2025, the bromance hit a massive wall. Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods—taking them from 25% to a staggering 50%. At the same time, he slashed tariffs for Pakistan from 29% to 19%.
Ouch.
The reason? Russian oil.
India has been buying record amounts of discounted Russian crude. Trump sees this as "geopolitical disciplining." He basically told India: "If you're going to fund Putin’s war, you’re going to pay me at the border." It’s a brutal, simple formula. India’s attempt to play both sides—staying close to Washington while buying from Moscow—finally triggered Trump’s "America First" trap.
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The Pakistan "Crypto" Pivot
While India was trying to explain its strategic autonomy, Pakistan was busy at Mar-a-Lago.
This is where it gets weird. Pakistan’s "Crypto Council" signed a deal with World Liberty Financial—a company the Trump family has serious stakes in. They also signed MOUs for critical minerals.
Basically, Pakistan realized that the road to Trump’s heart isn't through democratic values; it’s through business deals. By January 2026, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, had become a frequent guest in Washington.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Outlook
People think India is "losing" and Pakistan is "winning."
That’s too simple.
The india pakistan donald trump relationship is more like a high-stakes poker game. India is still the "natural" partner for the U.S. when it comes to countering China. Trump’s own National Security Strategy, released in December 2025, still lists India as a key partner for the Quad and critical minerals.
The friction is about ego and money, not a total breakup.
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- India's Leverage: They have a massive market. They are the only real counterweight to Beijing in the region.
- Pakistan's Utility: They are "responsive." They do what Trump asks—like providing forces for his 20-point Gaza plan.
- Trump's Goal: He wants "wins" he can put on a poster. If Pakistan gives him a win, he rewards them. If India denies him a win (like the mediation credit), he punishes them.
Actionable Insights for the Near Future
If you're tracking this for business or geopolitical reasons, here is what you need to watch for the rest of 2026:
Watch the Tariff Negotiations
India is likely to offer a "mini-trade deal" by mid-2026. If they lower duties on Harley-Davidsons or American apples again, watch how fast Trump’s rhetoric softens. It’s always about the "deal."
Monitor the Gaza Peace Plan
If Pakistani troops actually deploy as part of the U.S.-led peacekeeping force in Gaza, expect a massive influx of military aid to Islamabad. This will irritate New Delhi to no end.
The "Russia" Factor
As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India’s oil purchases will be a thorn. If India wants those 50% tariffs gone, they may have to publicly distance themselves from Moscow—a move that would fundamentally change their foreign policy.
The india pakistan donald trump saga isn't just about old rivalries anymore. It's about who can navigate the most unpredictable presidency in American history. India is playing a long, principled game. Pakistan is playing a fast, transactional one. Only time will tell which strategy survives the 2026 election cycle.
Next Steps for You
- Track the "World Liberty Financial" updates to see if more South Asian business deals emerge.
- Watch for the official Nobel Peace Prize nominations in February—if Trump is on the shortlist, his favor toward Pakistan will likely solidify.
- Keep an eye on S. Jaishankar’s upcoming speeches in Washington; his tone will tell you if a tariff truce is in the works.