You’re sitting in the terminal, scrolling through your phone, and it feels like every other headline is a terrifying video of an engine on fire or a door plug blowing out at 16,000 feet. It’s enough to make anyone want to cancel their vacation and just drive. People are asking the same question on every social media platform: why have there been more plane crashes and near-misses lately?
But here is the weird part. If you look at the raw data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 2023 was actually the safest year on record for flying. No jet hull losses. No passenger fatalities on commercial jets.
So why does it feel like the sky is falling?
Honestly, it’s a mix of a few things. We’re seeing a strange "hangover" from the pandemic, a massive shortage of experienced pilots, and the fact that everyone now has a 4K camera in their pocket to film every bit of turbulence. When something goes wrong now, we don't just read a tiny blurb in the paper three days later. We see it in real-time. High definition. Total chaos.
The Post-Pandemic Brain Drain in Aviation
The industry basically hit the "pause" button in 2020, and it hasn't quite figured out how to hit "play" again without some serious glitching. When travel stopped, the "old heads"—the captains with 30 years of experience—took early retirement packages. They left. Fast.
Now, we have a massive influx of new pilots. They’re capable, sure, but they don't have that decades-deep "muscle memory" that helps stay cool when a sensor fails over the Pacific. According to a report by Oliver Wyman, the industry is facing a global pilot shortage of about 17,000 people. This pressure forces airlines to accelerate training, and while standards remain high, the "experience gap" is a real thing that safety experts like Captain Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger have expressed concern about in various public forums.
It’s not just the cockpit. It’s the mechanics. It’s the air traffic controllers (ATCs).
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The FAA has been screaming about ATC shortages for years now. In some major hubs, controllers are working mandatory 6-day weeks. They’re exhausted. When you’re tired, you make mistakes. We’ve seen a spike in "runway incursions"—that’s the technical term for two planes almost hitting each other on the ground—and many experts point directly to staffing burnout as the culprit.
Why Have There Been More Plane Crashes (and Near-Misses) in the News?
Let’s talk about the Boeing 737 MAX. It’s the elephant in the room. Between the door plug blowout on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 and the older 777 that lost a tire over San Francisco, Boeing has had a rough couple of years. These incidents aren't "crashes" in the traditional sense, but they are terrifying mechanical failures.
Is manufacturing quality slipping?
Investigators from the NTSB found that the Alaska Airlines door plug was missing four key bolts. That’s not a "freak accident." That’s a quality control failure. When the supply chain is stressed and the pressure to deliver planes is high, corners can get clipped. We are seeing the results of a "production-first" culture that is currently being scrutinized by the FAA under Jennifer Homendy’s leadership.
However, we need to be careful with the word "crash."
If you look at the 2024 incidents involving United Airlines—engine fires, gear collapses—most were unrelated issues on older planes. But because the public is hyper-aware of why have there been more plane crashes and safety lapses, every single minor diversion gets a "Breaking News" banner.
Twenty years ago, a hydraulic leak would result in a quiet diversion to a secondary airport, and the passengers would be on a new plane in two hours. Today, those passengers are livestreaming the "emergency" to millions of people before the wheels even touch the ground.
The Climate Factor: Clear-Air Turbulence
You might have seen the news about Singapore Airlines Flight SQ321. One person died and dozens were injured when the plane dropped 6,000 feet in seconds. It wasn’t a mechanical failure. It wasn’t pilot error. It was extreme turbulence.
Researchers at Reading University have found that "clear-air turbulence"—the kind you can’t see on radar—has increased by up to 55% over the last four decades. Why? Climate change is messing with the jet streams. The wind shear is getting more violent.
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Planes are built to withstand this. They won't break apart. But if you aren't wearing your seatbelt, you become a projectile. This is why we're seeing more injuries on flights, which feeds the narrative that flying is becoming more dangerous, even if the plane itself is perfectly fine.
Maintenance and the Graying Fleet
Most people don't realize how old the planes they fly on actually are. The average age of a Delta flight is about 15 years. For some airlines, it’s closer to 20. These planes are safe, but they require meticulous, constant maintenance.
The problem? Maintenance is often outsourced now.
Instead of an airline having its own dedicated mechanics in every city, they often use third-party "MROs" (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul providers). If the oversight at these facilities isn't 100%, small things get missed. A bolt isn't torqued correctly. A seal is reused when it should have been replaced. It’s a systemic strain.
The Survival Stats You Actually Need to Know
Despite the scary headlines, you are still statistically safer in a plane than you are in your own bathtub.
- The odds of being in a fatal plane crash are roughly 1 in 11 million.
- The odds of dying in a car accident? About 1 in 101.
We focus on planes because a crash is a "spectacular" event. It’s rare, it’s loud, and it’s collective. A car crash is common and usually involves just a few people. Our brains are wired to fear the rare, big event more than the common, small one.
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How to Stay Safe (and Sane) in the Current Climate
If you’re worried about the state of aviation, there are actually things you can do besides just gripping the armrests and praying.
First, look at the airline's safety rating. Websites like AirlineRatings.com track everything from incident history to fleet age. If an airline has a 7-star rating, they’re doing something right.
Second, pay attention to the plane type. If you’re nervous about the Boeing 737 MAX, most booking sites (like Google Flights or Kayak) allow you to see the aircraft type before you buy. You can literally filter them out if it makes you feel better. There is no shame in choosing an Airbus A321 over a MAX 8 for your own peace of mind.
Most importantly: Keep your seatbelt fastened. Even when the light is off.
The biggest risk to your physical safety right now isn't the wings falling off—it’s hitting the ceiling during an unexpected pocket of turbulence.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Flight:
- Download a flight tracker: Apps like FlightRadar24 let you see exactly where your plane is coming from and if it’s had recent delays or issues.
- Fly direct when possible: Most incidents happen during takeoff and landing. Reducing your number of connections literally reduces your statistical risk.
- Check the "Operator": Sometimes you buy a ticket on United, but the flight is actually operated by a smaller regional partner. Look for "Operated by..." and check that specific carrier’s record.
- Listen to the briefing: I know, it’s boring. But if things go south, you need to know where that exit is. Count the rows to the exit in the dark. It takes five seconds and could save your life.
Flying is in a "high-friction" era right now. Between labor shortages, supply chain issues at Boeing, and crazier weather, the system is being tested. But the system is also redundant. There are backups for the backups. Even when things look scary on the news, the vast, vast majority of flights end with a boring taxi to the gate and a long wait at the baggage carousel. That’s the "crash" most of us will actually experience.