Momentum is a liar. We’ve all seen it happen: a mediocre team suddenly catches fire in late August or March, rattling off ten wins in a row just as the playoffs loom. Fans go wild. Analysts start talking about "the team nobody wants to play." They finished the season on a hot streak, so naturally, they’re the favorites to pull off an upset, right? Well, not exactly.
If you look at the actual data across the NFL, NBA, and MLB, that late-season surge is often more about scheduling luck and statistical regression than it is about some magical "clutch" factor. It feels real. It looks real. But honestly, it’s one of the most deceptive indicators in professional sports.
The Psychology of the Late-Season Surge
Why do we care so much about who is playing well in the final two weeks? It’s recency bias, plain and simple. Human brains are wired to prioritize what happened yesterday over what happened three months ago. When a team finished the season on a hot streak, we assume they’ve "figured it out." We think the version of the team we see in the final week is the "true" version, while the struggles of November were just a fluke or a learning curve.
But sports are long. Exhaustingly long.
Take the 2021-2022 Boston Celtics. They are often cited as the poster child for finishing strong. They were under .500 in January and then absolutely nuked the league in the second half. That wasn't just "momentum," though. It was a fundamental shift in defensive scheme under Ime Udoka and the health of Robert Williams III. They didn't just get "hot"; they got better. There’s a massive difference between a team that is actually improved and a team that is just shooting 45% from three-point range for a ten-game stretch.
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The MLB "Hot Hand" Fallacy
Baseball is where this myth goes to die. Every October, we hear about the "hot team" coming out of the Wild Card. People pointed to the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who won 14 of their last 15 games to reach the World Series. They were the hottest team in the history of the sport. Then they got to the World Series, sat around for a few days, and got swept by a Red Sox team that hadn't been nearly as "hot" down the stretch.
The reality is that baseball is a game of high variance.
A team that finished the season on a hot streak in MLB usually just had their starting rotation line up perfectly against weak divisional opponents who had already checked out for the winter. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight did an extensive study on this years ago. They found that a team’s performance in their final 25 games had almost zero predictive power for how they would perform in the postseason. You’re better off looking at their run differential over the full 162 games.
Why the NFL is Different (Sort Of)
Football is a different beast because of the sample size. With only 17 games, a three-game winning streak to end the year is a huge chunk of your season. If a quarterback suddenly finds his rhythm in December, it might actually mean something.
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But even then, look at the 2022 Detroit Lions. They were the darlings of the league, winning eight of their last ten. They finished the season on a hot streak that had everyone picking them as a dark horse for the following year. While they did eventually live up to the hype, that late-season "heat" didn't help them get into the playoffs that year. It’s a feel-good story, but "momentum" doesn't carry over a six-month offseason. It just doesn't.
The "Check Out" Factor
Here is something people rarely talk about: who were they playing?
When a team gets hot in the final weeks, they are often playing against:
- Teams that have already clinched a playoff spot and are resting starters.
- Teams that are "tanking" for better draft position.
- Teams with coaching staffs that know they’re getting fired on Monday.
Beating a 4-12 team that is starting a third-string quarterback doesn't mean you're "hot." It means you're professional. But the standings don't show the context; they just show the "W." If you’re betting on a team because they finished the season on a hot streak, you have to look at the Strength of Victory (SoV). If those wins came against the bottom-feeders of the league, that "streak" is basically a mirage.
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Statistical Regression is Inevitable
In the NBA, "hot streaks" are often just a result of shooting variance. A team might shoot 42% from deep over a three-week span. That’s unsustainable. If their season average is 35%, you can almost guarantee they will "ice over" right when the playoffs start.
This happened to the 2023-24 New York Knicks to some extent. They were playing incredible basketball, but the heavy minutes and high-intensity playstyle eventually hit a wall of physical reality. Being "hot" often requires a level of effort that isn't sustainable for a two-month playoff run.
When Does a Hot Streak Actually Matter?
It matters when it’s tied to a specific, identifiable change.
- A Trade: If the team added a piece at the deadline that fixed a glaring hole (think Rasheed Wallace to the Pistons in '04).
- Health: If a superstar missed 30 games and came back for the final 10.
- Scheme: If a team drastically changed how they play (like the 2019 Titans switching to Ryan Tannehill).
If none of those things happened, and the team is just "winning," be skeptical. Very skeptical.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're trying to figure out if a team that finished the season on a hot streak is for real, stop looking at the scoreboard and start looking at the "how."
- Check the Net Rating: In the NBA, look at the Net Rating (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating). Is the hot streak driven by a top-5 defense, or just a fluke shooting month? Defense is more stable; shooting is volatile.
- Analyze the Injury Report: Was the team healthy during the streak while their opponents were decimated? If they're beating "B-teams," ignore the streak.
- Look at Point Differential: Teams that win close games (one-score games in the NFL or "clutch" games in the NBA) are usually just lucky. Teams that blow people out are actually good. If a hot streak is made up of five wins by 2 points each, that team is prime for an early playoff exit.
- Ignore "Vibes": Don't listen to the narrative about "team chemistry" or "momentum." Focus on whether the process—the shot quality, the pass protection, the starting pitching—is actually elite.
The truth is that finishing strong feels great for the locker room, but for those of us watching from the outside, it's often a trap. Don't let a two-week sample size erase six months of evidence. Most of the time, a team is exactly who they showed you they were in November, not the lightning-in-a-bottle version you saw in April.