The hot stove is basically a frozen tundra right now, but things are getting weird in the Bronx. If you’ve been following the winter meetings and the trickle of news since, you know the vibe around Cody Bellinger has shifted. For months, it felt like a foregone conclusion that he’d just stay in pinstripes. Why wouldn't he? He hit .272 with 29 homers last year and finally looked like that MVP version of himself again. But honestly, the latest reports suggest the honeymoon is over.
The New York Yankees and Scott Boras—Bellinger’s agent—have hit what Buster Olney is calling an "impasse." It’s the classic baseball standoff. New York wants him back, sure, but they aren't looking to hand out a decade-long pension. On the other side, the San Francisco Giants are lurking in the shadows. They have money, they have a massive hole in right field, and they have a history of being the "mystery team" that swoops in when negotiations in New York go south.
The Impasse: Why Cody Bellinger May Leave Yankees
Money is rarely the only issue with a Boras client; it’s almost always the years. The Yankees reportedly have a five-year offer on the table. It’s a massive chunk of change, likely north of $155 million. That’s roughly $31 million a year. Most players would sprint to the stadium to sign that. But Bellinger is 30. He knows this is his last chance at a truly "generational" contract. He wants seven years.
Brian Cashman is a lot of things, but he’s rarely a pushover when it comes to length for guys on the wrong side of 30. He’s already got massive long-term commitments to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Adding another seven-year deal for a guy whose performance has been, let’s be real, a bit of a roller coaster over the last four seasons is a tough pill to swallow.
Because of this gap, Cody Bellinger may leave Yankees for multi-year Giants deal simply because San Francisco might be desperate enough to give him that sixth or seventh year. The Giants have had a quiet winter. Too quiet. Fans in the Bay Area are getting restless after missing out on big names in previous years, and Buster Posey—now running the show in the front office—needs a win.
The San Francisco Factor
Oracle Park is a nightmare for left-handed power hitters. We all know this. The "Triple's Alley" graveyard has swallowed more fly balls than almost any other park in the majors. So, why would Bellinger want to go there?
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It’s about the security.
The Giants aren't just looking for a bat; they need a defensive anchor. Last season, the Giants' outfield defense was, to put it lightly, a mess. They ranked near the bottom of the league in several defensive metrics. Bellinger is a gold-glove caliber talent who can play all three outfield spots and even spell someone at first base.
- The Payroll Opening: Unlike the Yankees, the Giants have a relatively clean slate in the long term. They have Rafael Devers locked up, but they have the flexibility to absorb a $180 million-plus contract for an outfielder.
- The Posey Connection: Buster Posey knows Bellinger well from their days as rivals in the NL West. There’s a level of respect there that matters in these high-stakes meetings.
- The "Desperation" Premium: When a team like the Giants has been "bridesmaid" for so many free agents (Judge, Ohtani, etc.), they eventually have to overpay to get a deal across the finish line.
What the Numbers Actually Say
If you look at the 2025 stats, Bellinger was a godsend for the Yankees. He stabilized the middle of the order. But look closer at the splits. He hit .302 at Yankee Stadium. On the road? His OPS dropped by nearly 200 points.
That’s a red flag for any team thinking about a long-term commitment. In the Bronx, he can poke a ball 340 feet and get a home run. In San Francisco, that same swing is a loud out.
The Giants are likely weighing that risk right now. They need the defense and the "star power," but they have to wonder if they’re buying 2019 MVP Bellinger or the guy who struggled to stay above the Mendoza line a few years back. Still, when you're the Giants and you're looking at a lineup that lacks a true "thumper" alongside Devers, you take the gamble.
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Moving Parts: Tucker and the Market
There’s also the Kyle Tucker factor. He’s the "big fish" of this free-agent class. Most teams, including the Yankees, are keeping one eye on Tucker while talking to Bellinger. If the Yankees decide they’d rather save their chips for a run at Tucker, they’ll let Bellinger walk without a second thought.
But Tucker is going to cost $300 million-plus. Bellinger is the "affordable" elite option.
Wait. Did I just call $160 million affordable? In the current market, yeah, it kinda is.
If the Yankees pivot to someone like Bo Bichette or try to swing a trade for a pitcher like Freddy Peralta, it leaves Bellinger with fewer suitors. Boras knows this. He’s trying to create a bidding war between the Giants and the Yankees to get that seventh year.
What Happens Next?
Honestly, this feels like it’s reaching a breaking point. Spring training is basically a month away. Pitchers and catchers report soon, and no one wants to be the guy signing his contract in the middle of February while everyone else is already taking BP.
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The Yankees have shown they’re willing to walk away. They did it with Blake Snell. They’ve done it with others. If the Giants decide to offer a six-year deal worth $190 million, Bellinger is gone. It’s that simple.
For the Yankees, losing him would be a massive blow to the 2026 lineup. They don’t have a clear internal replacement. Jasson Domínguez is a stud, but you can’t rely on a kid to carry the weight that Bellinger did.
For the Giants, signing him would be a statement. It would tell the NL West that they aren't just content to sit in third place behind the Dodgers and Padres. It’s a high-risk, high-reward move that could define the Buster Posey era before it even truly begins.
Actionable Insights for Baseball Fans:
- Watch the Opt-Outs: Keep a close eye on the contract structure. If Bellinger stays with the Yankees, expect a shorter deal (5 years) with a player opt-out after year two. This gives him the security he wants but allows him to hit the market again if he has another monster season.
- The "Secret" Deadline: Watch the final week of January. Historically, that’s when the "Boras 4" types finally blink or a team gets desperate enough to meet the asking price.
- Giants’ Roster Moves: If San Francisco starts clearing more payroll or moves a young outfielder like Luis Matos, it’s a massive signal they are making room for a veteran like Bellinger.
- Yankees' Plan B: If news breaks that the Yankees are "intensifying" talks for a trade, it usually means they’ve officially moved on from the Bellinger sweepstakes.