It was basically a power outage that gave us one of the best indie folk songs of the decade. Most people don't know that. When Adrianne Lenker and Buck Meek sat down to write what would become the certainty lyrics big thief fans now scream at the top of their lungs during live sets, they weren't in a high-end studio. They were in a kitchen. During a blackout.
Writing by candlelight sounds like a cliché, but for Big Thief, it’s just Tuesday.
There is this specific kind of magic in "Certainty" that feels less like a polished radio hit and more like a voice memo you weren't supposed to hear. It’s raw. It’s dizzying. It’s a song about not knowing anything for sure, which is exactly why it resonates so deeply in an era where everyone is pretending to have it all figured out.
The Messy Reality Behind the Certainty Lyrics Big Thief Wrote
If you look at the credits for Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe in You, you’ll see the band recorded it across four distinct locations: New York, Topanga Canyon, the Rocky Mountains, and Tucson. "Certainty" came out of the Woodshed in Malibu.
The story goes that the power went out, and instead of stopping, they just kept going. You can hear that flickering energy in the recording. It’s a literal representation of the song's core theme: finding something stable while everything else is going dark.
The certainty lyrics big thief penned for this track—specifically the opening lines about the "crooked heart" and the "certainty" of love—aren't actually about being 100% sure. Paradoxical? Yeah.
Adrianne Lenker has a way of twisting words so they mean two things at once. When she sings "My certainty is wild," she isn't saying she’s confident. She’s saying her conviction is unpredictable. It’s a living thing. It’s messy. Honestly, it’s a bit of a relief to hear a love song admit that commitment is often just a series of choices you make while you’re totally confused.
The Harmony That Makes the Lyrics Sting
You can't talk about the lyrics without talking about Buck Meek’s harmony. It’s right there, glued to Adrianne’s vocal. In many ways, the melody acts as a second narrator.
Think about the line: “For you, I am a child / My certainty is wild.” Without that specific, slightly-flat, ultra-intimate harmony, it might sound like a nursery rhyme. Instead, it sounds like a confession. It feels like two people leaning against each other so they don't fall over. The song manages to capture that specific feeling of being "found" by someone else even when you’ve lost your own map.
Why the "Certainty" Lyrics Feel Different From Other Big Thief Songs
Big Thief is famous for being heavy. Songs like "Vampire Empire" or "Not" are visceral and loud. They demand you pay attention. But the certainty lyrics big thief delivered in 2021 (and released in early 2022) are remarkably soft. They don't try to break your heart; they just try to hold it.
Most of the tracks on Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe in You are experimental. You have the jaw harp on "Spud Infinity" or the glitchy electronics of "Simulation Swarm." "Certainty" is the anchor. It’s the three-chord folk song that reminds you why you liked the band in the first place.
It's also worth noting how the lyrics deal with time.
“The way the light is moving / The way the shadow’s grooving.” It’s observational. It’s present. It doesn't look back with nostalgia or forward with anxiety. It just stays right there in the kitchen by the candle. This "present-tense" writing style is a hallmark of Lenker’s best work. She doesn't tell you how she felt three years ago; she tells you how the air feels on her skin right now.
The Mystery of the "Crooked Heart"
One of the most debated lines in the certainty lyrics big thief catalog is the mention of the "crooked heart."
In songwriting, "crooked" usually implies something broken or dishonest. But here, it feels like a badge of honor. It’s the acknowledgment that no one comes to a relationship perfect. We all have these bends and breaks.
I’ve seen people interpret this as a reference to the actual physical sensation of anxiety—that fluttering, uneven heartbeat. Others think it’s a nod to the folk tradition of the "crooked tune," music that doesn't follow a standard 4/4 time or a perfect structure. Both are probably right. Big Thief thrives in that ambiguity.
Technical Mastery in Simplicity
Music critics often overcomplicate this band. They want to talk about the gear or the complex rhythms. But "Certainty" is a masterclass in why those things don't always matter.
The guitar work is sparse. The drums are barely there. This places the weight entirely on the words.
If you analyze the rhyme scheme, it’s deceptively simple.
- Child / Wild
- Moving / Grooving
- Losing / Choosing
In the hands of a lesser songwriter, these would be "baby/maybe" rhymes—lazy and predictable. But because Lenker couches them in such specific, atmospheric imagery, they feel inevitable rather than easy.
It’s the difference between a Hallmark card and a poem written on the back of a receipt. One is manufactured; the other is a relic of a moment.
How to Truly Experience the Certainty Lyrics Big Thief Wrote
If you're just reading the lyrics on a screen, you're missing half the story. To get what this song is doing, you have to look at the context of the album’s release.
Coming out of the pandemic, everyone was looking for a return to "normal." But "Certainty" suggests that "normal" is a myth. The song embraces the flux.
When you listen to the line “I don’t know what I’m choosing,” it feels like a collective exhale. It’s okay not to know. In fact, not knowing might be the most honest state a human being can exist in.
Misconceptions About the Song’s Meaning
A lot of people think this is a breakup song because of the lines about "losing." It’s actually the opposite.
It’s a song about the fear of loss that naturally exists within a deep connection. You can’t be afraid of losing someone if they don't mean the world to you. The "certainty" isn't that the relationship will last forever—it’s the certainty of the feeling in the current moment, despite the fact that the world is "crooked" and "wild."
Actionable Insights for Big Thief Fans and Songwriters
If you’re trying to dig deeper into this track or apply its lessons to your own creative work, keep these points in mind:
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- Embrace the Environment: The fact that this was recorded during a power outage isn't a fun fact; it's the soul of the song. If you’re a creator, stop waiting for the "perfect" conditions. Use the limitations.
- Study the Harmonies: If you play guitar, learn the vocal harmonies instead of the lead line. Notice how Buck Meek’s voice stays just slightly below Adrianne’s, creating a "shadow" effect that mirrors the lyrics about light and shade.
- Look for the Paradox: The best lyrics often hold two opposing truths. "Certainty" is about being unsure. "Losing" is about finding.
- Check the Live Versions: Big Thief is a different beast live. Watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert performance of "Certainty." You can see the eye contact between the band members. That non-verbal communication is exactly what the lyrics are trying to describe.
The certainty lyrics big thief gave us aren't just words on a page. They’re a snapshot of a band at the height of their powers, leaning into the darkness and finding something that shines. It’s a reminder that even when the power goes out, you can still find the melody.
To get the most out of your next listen, put on some decent headphones—the kind that let you hear the room noise. Listen for the hiss of the tape. Listen for the breath between the lines. That’s where the real certainty lives.
Next Steps for Deep Listening:
- Listen to "Certainty" back-to-back with "Simulation Swarm" to see how the band handles the theme of "instability" in two completely different genres (folk vs. indie rock).
- Read Adrianne Lenker’s solo lyrics (specifically from the album songs) to see how her writing style evolved into the collaborative spirit of Big Thief.
- Watch the "Certainty" music video, which is basically just a grainy, home-movie style capture of them recording the song. It reinforces the "kitchen-table" intimacy that the lyrics demand.