If you’ve been watching the European banking sector lately, you know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Honestly, though, banco bilbao vizcaya argentaria sa stock (or BBVA as most of us call it) has carved out a path that’s surprisingly resilient. While other "legacy" banks are still dusting themselves off from the rate hikes of the mid-2020s, BBVA is leaning heavily into markets that most people find "too risky."
Think Mexico. Think Turkey.
It's weird, right? A Spanish bank that makes most of its money outside of Spain. As of early 2026, the stock has been hovering around that $24.38 mark on the NYSE, showing a technical strength that caught even the big guys at Goldman Sachs by surprise. Just a few weeks ago, they added it to their Conviction List. That’s a big deal.
What’s Actually Driving the Price Right Now?
You can't talk about BBVA without talking about the Sabadell drama. It’s the elephant in the room. Back in late 2025, the proposed merger with Sabadell basically fell apart. Shareholders just weren't biting. The acceptance rate was a measly 2.8% at one point. It was kind of embarrassing, but weirdly enough, the market didn't punish BBVA for the failure.
Instead, investors seemed relieved.
Why? Because BBVA is already a cash-generating machine on its own. They have this massive target to generate €49 billion in capital between 2025 and 2028. That’s a lot of zeros. A huge chunk of that is going straight back to you if you own the stock. We’re talking about a dividend yield that’s currently sitting around 3.4%, with a payout scheduled for April 2026.
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The Mexico Powerhouse
Here is the thing most people get wrong: they think BBVA is a Spanish play. It’s not. It is a Mexico play.
- Over half of their profits come from Mexico.
- The Mexican Peso has been behaving better than expected.
- Lending there is growing at double digits.
Honestly, if you're holding banco bilbao vizcaya argentaria sa stock, you’re basically betting on the emerging middle class in Latin America. It's a "growth stock" disguised as a "boring bank stock." Zacks recently gave it a Rank #2 (Buy) for exactly this reason. Their cash flow growth is hitting 23%, which is way higher than the industry average of about 5%.
The Turkey Gamble
Then there’s Garanti BBVA in Turkey. This is where things get spicy. Turkey has been a nightmare for some investors because of hyperinflation and some pretty wild central bank moves. But BBVA has stuck it out. In the first half of 2025, their Turkish unit reported a net income of TL 53.6 billion.
It’s a high-risk, high-reward situation. Analysts are projecting that the Turkish operations will account for about 15% of total earnings in 2026. If the Turkish economy stabilizes even a little bit, this becomes a massive tailwind. If not? Well, the Spanish and Mexican earnings act as a pretty thick safety net.
The Technical Reality Check
Let's look at the numbers. The stock's P/E ratio is currently sitting at 12.09.
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Is that expensive? Kinda. It's near its three-year high.
But you’ve got to look at the Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE). BBVA is hitting a ROTE of nearly 20%. In the banking world, that’s elite. Most European banks are lucky to hit 10% or 12%. The management has even set an ambitious goal to reach a 22% ROTE by the end of 2028.
Some people are worried about the debt-to-equity ratio, which is around 1.46. That’s a bit high, and it’s why some conservative analysts give them a lower "financial strength" rating. But remember, a bank’s "debt" is often just customer deposits. You have to look at the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CET1), which is a solid 12.82% projected for 2026. They are well above the regulatory requirements.
What to Watch in the Coming Months
The next big date on the calendar is January 29, 2026. That’s the Q4 earnings call.
Analysts are looking for an EPS of about $0.43. If they beat that—which they’ve done consistently for the last few quarters—expect the stock to test those 52-week highs again.
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There's also the share buyback program. BBVA has been canceling millions of shares. In December 2025 alone, they canceled 54.3 million shares. This is basically a hidden dividend. It makes every share you own a little more valuable because there are fewer of them to go around.
Is it a Buy?
If you’re looking for a safe, slow-moving utility bank, this might not be it. BBVA has a beta of 0.71, which means it’s technically less volatile than the overall market, but its exposure to emerging markets makes it feel more "active."
The real value here is the dividend and the share buybacks. If you like getting paid to wait, the 3.4% yield is pretty attractive, especially with the April 24, 2026, payment on the horizon.
Your Next Steps with BBVA
If you’re serious about banco bilbao vizcaya argentaria sa stock, don't just look at the ticker price on your phone.
- Check the MXN/EUR exchange rate. Since Mexico is their bread and butter, a weak Peso can eat into their profits, even if the bank is doing great locally.
- Mark January 29th. Watch the earnings call for updates on the 2025-2028 capital distribution plan. If they increase the buyback amount, that's a huge bullish signal.
- Review your emerging market exposure. BBVA gives you a lot of it. Make sure you aren't already over-leveraged in Mexico or Turkey through other ETFs or stocks.
- Watch the Sabadell residual noise. While the merger failed, there’s always a chance BBVA tries a smaller, more targeted acquisition in the European market to boost its home-base presence.
This isn't just a Spanish bank anymore. It’s a global financial engine that happens to have its headquarters in Madrid. Keep your eyes on the emerging market data; that’s where the real story is told.