It’s the news notification every parent dreads. That buzz in your pocket that turns out to be a headline about another lockdown, another siren, another vigil. Honestly, it feels like it’s happening every other week. While 2025 actually saw a slight dip in the total number of incidents—dropping to 233 from a terrifying peak of 352 in 2023—the long-term trajectory is still pointing up. Since 1970, the incidence of school shootings has more than quadrupled.
Why? Why now? Why us?
People love simple answers. "It’s the guns." "It’s the mental health." "It’s the video games." But if it were just one of those things, we probably would have fixed it by now. The reality is a mess of social contagion, easy access to high-capacity hardware, and a post-pandemic world where many kids feel fundamentally untethered.
Why are school shootings becoming more common in the modern era?
Basically, we are looking at a "perfect storm" of factors that didn't exist thirty years ago. Back in the 1970s, the K-12 School Shooting Database recorded about 20 incidents a year. By 2021, that number hit 251. We aren't just seeing more shootings; we are seeing a change in the nature of the violence.
The Contagion Effect is Real
You’ve probably heard of "copycat" killers. Scientists call it the contagion effect. Research published in PLOS One suggests that a single high-profile school shooting can increase the probability of another one occurring for about 13 days afterward. It’s like a virus.
Social media acts as the super-spreader. Algorithms don't care about public safety; they care about engagement. When a shooter’s manifesto or livestreamed video goes viral, it provides a blueprint for the next person sitting in their bedroom feeling invisible. They see the fame—even the infamy—and it looks like a way out of their own perceived insignificance.
Access and the "Home" Factor
Here is a statistic that usually stops people cold: nearly two-thirds of school shooters are under the age of 17. How does a 14-year-old get a handgun?
Usually, they just walk into their parents' bedroom.
Data from the CDC and the Violence Project indicates that the majority of firearms used in these incidents come from the shooter's home or the home of a relative. Dr. Louis J. Magnotti, a trauma surgeon and researcher, has pointed out that while rifles are the deadliest in terms of fatality rates, handguns are used in about 84% of these events. It's about proximity. If the gun is there, and the kid is in crisis, the math becomes tragic very quickly.
The Pandemic Hangover
We can't talk about 2026 without looking back at 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic did something weird to the social fabric. It isolated kids during their most formative years for social development.
Since the onset of the pandemic, more than 160 school shootings have occurred. That’s a massive chunk of the total since Columbine in 1999. We are seeing higher rates of "student exposure"—which includes not just being shot, but being in a building when shots are fired. According to KFF, student exposure has tripled since the early 2000s. The states with the highest rates recently? Delaware, DC, and Utah. It's not just "big city" problems anymore.
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The Role of Modern School Security
Ironically, the things we do to stay safe might be making the environment more tense. About 54% of public schools now have sworn law enforcement officers on campus. 98% have active shooter procedures.
But there’s a catch.
New reports from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine suggest that high-intensity, "hyper-realistic" drills can actually cause PTSD and extreme anxiety in students. Imagine being 8 years old and having a masked man rattle your classroom door while you're told to be silent. It creates a climate of fear. While only 27% of schools report feeling "very prepared," the constant focus on the threat can sometimes overshadow the focus on the student.
What about mental health?
It’s a factor, but it’s rarely the only factor. Most people with mental illness are never violent. However, experts like David Riedman, founder of the K-12 School Shooting Database, emphasize that we need to look at "leakage."
Leakage is when a student tells someone—a friend, a teacher, a post on Discord—that they are planning something. In almost every major incident, there were warnings. The problem is that our systems for reporting and acting on those warnings are often clunky or non-existent. Teachers are often afraid of being "the one who got a kid in trouble" if they're wrong.
A Change in Tactics for 2026
If the numbers are going to keep dropping like they did in 2025, the focus has to shift. We are seeing a move away from just "hardening" schools with more metal detectors and toward "situational awareness."
Safety experts are now pushing for:
- Active Supervision: Instead of teachers checking phones during recess, there’s a push for "eyes-on" engagement.
- Abnormality Recognition: Training staff to spot the "sixth sense" things—like an unfamiliar car in the drop-off line or a student's sudden change in behavior.
- Decision Empowerment: Allowing staff to make calls in real-time rather than waiting for a centralized command that might be blocks away.
Practical Steps Forward
We aren't going to solve this with a single law or a single piece of technology. It’s a culture shift.
If you are a parent or an educator, here is what actually matters right now:
- Secure Storage is Number One. If you have a firearm, it must be in a biometric or high-quality safe. Period. The "he knows not to touch it" excuse has failed hundreds of families.
- Monitor the Digital Diet. You don't need to be a spy, but you do need to know if your child is falling into "doom-scrolling" subcultures that glorify past tragedies.
- Trust the "Gut" but Have a Process. Schools need clear, anonymous tip lines that actually get monitored by people trained in threat assessment, not just discipline.
- Prioritize Belonging. Many shooters described guns as their "only friend." Building a school culture where no kid is a ghost is a more effective security measure than a ten-foot fence.
The trend of why school shootings are becoming more common is reversible, but only if we stop looking for a "silver bullet" solution and start addressing the messy, overlapping realities of access, isolation, and the digital echoes of violence.
Next Steps for Action:
Check your local school district's "Threat Assessment" protocol. Ask if they use a multidisciplinary team (including mental health professionals and law enforcement) or if they rely solely on security hardware. If your state has "Red Flag" laws, familiarize yourself with how to report a genuine concern regarding firearm access for an individual in crisis.