Honestly, the stock market right now feels like a high-stakes waiting room. We’re sitting here in mid-January 2026, and everyone is staring at the calendar, circling February 25. That’s the day Nvidia is expected to drop its next quarterly bombshell. It’s kinda wild how one company’s financial statement has basically become the heartbeat of the entire tech sector.
You’ve probably noticed the green on your screen lately. While the broader S&P 500 has been putting up respectable numbers, the niche where AI stocks rise ahead Nvidia earnings is where the real action is happening. It’s not just Nvidia (NVDA) itself, which is currently flirting with a $4.6 trillion market cap. It’s the whole ecosystem. From the guys making the cooling systems like Vertiv to the memory chip masters at Micron, the "pre-earnings pump" is in full swing.
People are basically betting that Jensen Huang is going to take the stage and tell us the Blackwell rollout is even crazier than we thought.
The "Halo Effect" and Why Everything Else Is Surging
When we talk about why ai stocks rise ahead nvidia earnings, we have to talk about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC). Just a few days ago, TSMC dropped a Q4 report that essentially served as a massive "Buy" signal for the whole AI industry. They beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines, reporting non-GAAP earnings of $3.14 per share.
But the real kicker? Their capex guidance.
🔗 Read more: Shangri-La Asia Interim Report 2024 PDF: What Most People Get Wrong
TSMC is planning to spend between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026. You don't spend that kind of money unless you have orders coming out of your ears. Since TSMC is the one actually baking the chips for Nvidia, Apple, and AMD, their optimism is like a shot of espresso for the market.
It’s a chain reaction.
Investors see TSMC’s numbers and think, "If they’re busy, Nvidia must be slammed." Then they look at AMD, which is projected to grow its revenue by 28% this year, and they start buying that, too. Even Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is seeing a rebound, trading up over 10% recently as it secures a $2 billion credit facility to scale up its AI-focused inventory. Basically, if it helps a data center hum, people are buying it right now.
Is This a Bubble or Just a Very Big Balloon?
I hear it all the time: "It's 1999 all over again."
Honestly, maybe. But there’s a big difference this time around that most people get wrong. In the dot-com era, companies were valued at billions without having a single dollar in profit. Today, Nvidia is sitting on over $60 billion in cash. They aren't just selling "potential"; they are selling actual silicon that Microsoft, Google, and Meta are desperate to buy.
UBS analysts just called AI exposure "essential" for long-term wealth. They’re even forecasting the S&P 500 to hit 7,700 by the end of the year. That’s a lot of confidence.
💡 You might also like: Private Credit News Today: Why the Golden Age is Getting a Reality Check
Still, you’ve got guys like Stuart Russell at UC Berkeley raising the red flag. There’s this growing concern that 2026 might be the year of "AI realism." We’re starting to ask the hard questions: Is the productivity boost actually showing up on the balance sheets of the companies using the AI, or just the ones selling the hardware?
The Underdogs People Are Ignoring
While everyone is obsessed with Nvidia, some of the smartest moves are happening in the "value" side of AI.
- Micron Technology (MU): This one is a bit of a no-brainer for some. They are trading at around 11 times forward earnings, which is cheap for this neighborhood. With DRAM prices expected to jump 40% to 50% this quarter, their revenue could nearly double this fiscal year.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL): They just secured five new design wins for custom AI chips with major U.S. cloud providers.
- Vertiv (VRT): These chips get hot. Really hot. Vertiv makes the liquid cooling systems that keep the data centers from melting. They’ve grown over 1,000% in three years, but analysts still see upside because the infrastructure build-out isn't slowing down.
What to Expect on February 25
The consensus EPS forecast for Nvidia's upcoming report is sitting at $1.45. Compare that to the $0.85 they reported for the same quarter last year. That is a massive jump.
If they beat that—and let's be real, they usually do—the "Rubin" platform is going to be the next buzzword. Rubin is the successor to Blackwell, and CFO Colette Kress has already confirmed it's on track for a 2026 rollout.
📖 Related: Syrian Dinar to Dollar: Why Everyone Gets the Name (and the Rate) Wrong
But here’s the thing: The market has already baked a lot of this "great news" into the current price. That’s why we see ai stocks rise ahead nvidia earnings. It’s the "buy the rumor" phase. The risk is the "sell the news" part. If Nvidia only meets expectations instead of shattering them, we might see a bit of a "guillotine" effect where the stock drops despite having a great quarter.
Actionable Steps for the "Nvidia Eve" Period
If you're looking at your portfolio and wondering how to play this, don't just chase the highest green bar.
First, check your concentration. If 40% of your portfolio is in three AI stocks, a single bad guidance from Jensen Huang could hurt. Diversifying into the infrastructure side—think power, cooling, or memory—often provides a bit more of a cushion than the pure-play GPU makers.
Second, watch the 50-day moving average. Many of these stocks, like SMCI and Vertiv, are currently trying to break above their 50-day averages. If they hold those levels leading into February, it’s a sign of strong institutional support.
Finally, look at the guidance, not the past. When the report drops, ignore the "record revenue" headlines. Look at what they say about the second half of 2026. If the demand visibility starts to look "cloudy" or if they mention any supply chain hiccups with the Rubin rollout, that’s your cue to be cautious.
The AI trade isn't over, but it is maturing. It's moving from "pure hype" to "show me the money," and February 25 will be the ultimate polygraph test.