If you were hoping for a boring Tuesday in the markets, Advance Auto Parts didn't get the memo.
The aap stock price today took a visible hit, closing at $42.36 per share. That is a 1.47% drop from yesterday's close of $42.99. Honestly, for a company that’s been trying to convince Wall Street its "turnaround story" is working, today felt like a step backward. The stock opened at $42.75 and briefly teased investors by climbing to a high of $43.53 before the floor sort of dropped out in the final hour of trading.
Low of the day? $42.22.
It’s been a rough ride lately. Just look at the volume. Over 1.6 million shares changed hands today. That's a lot of people deciding they’d rather hold cash or something else.
What’s actually dragging down AAP?
Market cap is sitting right around $2.54 billion now. If you remember where this company was a few years ago, that number feels tiny. It’s basically a shadow of its former self.
Investors are jittery because the math isn't adding up for everyone. The company has a negative EPS of -$6.31. You read that right. They are losing money on a trailing twelve-month basis. While competitors like AutoZone are printing cash, Advance is still untangling a messy supply chain.
The new face on the board
Interestingly, right in the middle of this price slide, the company announced something big. Richard "Dick" A. Johnson, the former CEO of Foot Locker, is joining the Board of Directors as an independent director.
He’s a retail veteran with 30 years under his belt.
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Management is basically betting that his experience can help them execute their "strategic plan." You know, the one where they consolidate 38 distribution centers down to just 16 by the end of this year. It's a massive gamble. If it works, they save hundreds of millions. If it fails? Well, your local mechanic won't get his alternator on time, and he'll call O'Reilly instead.
The ARGOS launch and the "DIY" problem
Last week, they launched ARGOS, their new private-label brand for oils and fluids.
It’s a smart move on paper. Private labels have higher margins. But there is a catch. The "Do-It-Yourself" (DIY) segment has been stagnant. People are keeping their cars longer—which is good for parts—but they aren't necessarily doing the heavy lifting themselves anymore.
- Synthetic blends hit the shelves in mid-February.
- Full synthetic heavy-duty oil follows shortly after.
- Bulk fluids and gear oil won't be fully rolled out until May.
Is a new brand of motor oil enough to save the aap stock price today? Probably not. But it shows Shane O’Kelly (the CEO) is trying to fix the margin problem from the bottom up.
What the "Smart Money" is saying
Wall Street is currently split, though "Hold" is the loudest voice in the room. Out of 53 analysts tracked by Markets Insider, the consensus is a resounding shrug.
- The Bulls: They see a median price target of $56.71. If they're right, there's a 74% upside from where we are today.
- The Bears: UBS recently put out a price target of $35.00. That’s a scary thought for anyone who bought in the $50s.
- The Reality: 83% of analysts have a "Hold" rating. They want to see the Q4 earnings report on February 26, 2026, before committing.
The short interest is another red flag. About 21.9% of the float is sold short. That is a massive number. It means one out of every five shares is a bet that the price will go even lower. When short interest is that high, you get a "crowded trade." It makes the stock incredibly volatile. Any bit of good news could cause a short squeeze, but any bad news sends people running for the exits.
Comparing the heavyweights
It's sort of painful to look at AAP next to its peers.
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AutoZone (AZO) has a Price-to-Earnings ratio of about 24. Advance doesn't even have a positive P/E right now because of the losses. Their Price-to-Sales ratio is 0.30, which is dirt cheap. But as the saying goes: things are often cheap for a reason.
Revenue fell about 5.4% over the last year. That’s the real kicker. You can’t just cut your way to growth. You eventually have to sell more brake pads and car batteries.
Is the dividend safe?
The stock went ex-dividend on January 9. If you held the stock then, you’ll get $0.25 per share on January 23.
The yield is roughly 2.36%.
For a company losing money, people always ask if the dividend is on the chopping block. Management seems committed to it for now, but if the supply chain consolidation doesn't show results by mid-2026, don't be surprised if that cash gets redirected toward debt. Speaking of debt, the debt-to-equity ratio is north of 239x. That’s a lot of leverage in a high-interest-rate environment.
The 2026 Outlook: A slow start
Cox Automotive is predicting that new vehicle sales will drop about 2.4% this year.
That usually helps the aftermarket parts business—if people aren't buying new cars, they have to fix their old ones. But with the "bifurcated consumer" (a fancy way of saying lower-income folks are broke), the high cost of even basic repairs is making people delay maintenance.
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Advance is stuck in the middle. They aren't the premium choice, and they aren't the cheapest.
Actionable steps for investors
If you're watching the aap stock price today, you need to keep your eyes on three specific things over the next few weeks.
First, watch the $40.00 support level. If the stock breaks below $40.00, it could quickly test the 52-week low of **$28.89**. There isn't much price history to catch it in between.
Second, pay attention to the February 26 earnings call. This will be the first real look at how the store closures and DC consolidations are impacting the bottom line. If margins don't expand by at least 100 basis points, the "turnaround" might be labeled a "tumble."
Lastly, monitor the short interest. If it starts to drop, it means the bears are taking profits and moving on. If it stays above 20%, expect the wild price swings to continue. This isn't a "set it and forget it" stock right now. It's a high-stakes retail experiment.
Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield too. Retailers with high debt loads like Advance are hypersensitive to interest rate shifts. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest expense on their debt will continue to eat their lunch.