Look back at June 2018. The energy was weird. Everybody knew Deandre Ayton was going first to Phoenix because, well, he was a local star and a physical marvel. But the real friction—the stuff that actually kept scouts awake—was Luka Dončić. If you look at any mock 2018 NBA draft from that spring, you’ll see a massive divide. Some had him at one. Others had him sliding to five or six because of "athleticism concerns." Honestly, it's hilarious to think about now.
We’re talking about a class that changed the geometry of the league.
Trae Young was polarizing. Marvin Bagley III was considered a "safe" double-double machine. Wendell Carter Jr. was the high-floor guy. But the 2018 draft wasn't just about the names at the top; it was about the league's shift toward positionless basketball. When we revisit these old projections, we aren't just looking at missed picks. We’re looking at how NBA front offices failed to see the future of the point-forward.
The Luka Dončić vs. The Big Man Delusion
Phoenix had the top pick. They needed a center, or at least they thought they did. Igor Kokoškov was the coach, and he had literally just won EuroBasket with Luka. You’d think that was a slam dunk, right? Nope. The mock 2018 NBA draft consensus stayed firm on Ayton.
Ayton was 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He looked like he was sculpted out of granite. In a traditional NBA, he’s the right choice 10 times out of 10. But the league was already changing. Golden State was killing teams with small ball. Switchability was becoming the only currency that mattered.
The Sacramento Kings at number two? That’s where the real tragedy happened. Vlade Divac passed on Luka for Marvin Bagley III. The logic was fit. They had De'Aaron Fox and didn't think Luka could play off-ball. It’s the kind of overthinking that costs GMs their jobs. Most mocks at the time actually supported this, or at least entertained it, because Bagley’s second-jump ability was legendary at Duke. He was quick. He was bouncy. He just didn't have a position in the modern game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Value of Length
If you want to find the biggest "I told you so" in any mock 2018 NBA draft, look at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He went 11th.
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Eleventh!
SGA was coming off a Kentucky season where he started as a backup and ended as the best player on the floor. He was skinny. He moved at a different pace—sorta slow but impossible to stop. Most experts had him in the late lottery, stuck behind guys like Collin Sexton or Kevin Knox. The Clippers traded up with Charlotte to get him, and that single move basically set the foundation for their entire decade. Without Shai, they don't have the assets to get Paul George later.
Why did he slide? People worried about his jumper. They worried he wasn't "explosive." It’s a recurring theme in 2018: teams overvalued vertical leap and undervalued "feel."
The Mid-First Round Traps
Every draft has them. The guys who look perfect on paper but just don't have the "dog" in them, or maybe their game just doesn't scale. Kevin Knox at 9 to the Knicks was a classic case. He had the size. He could shoot in a gym. But the speed of the NBA game swallowed him whole.
Then you have Mikal Bridges.
He was the "boring" pick. Two-time national champ at Villanova. He went 10th to his hometown Sixers, only to be traded to Phoenix for Zhaire Smith and a pick. It was a cold-blooded move. Sixers fans still haven't recovered. Bridges is the ultimate "connector" player—the guy who fits on every single roster in the league. While mocks were arguing about Mo Bamba’s wingspan (which was a massive 7-foot-10), Bridges was just out there winning games.
- Mo Bamba: 6th overall. High ceiling, low floor.
- Wendell Carter Jr.: 7th overall. Solid, but injuries hampered the early years.
- Collin Sexton: 8th overall. High usage, tough fit.
The variance in this range was insane. Jaren Jackson Jr. going 4th to Memphis was actually one of the few times the "projection" met the "production." He was a unicorn before we started calling everyone a unicorn.
Trae Young and the Atlanta Gamble
We have to talk about the trade. Dallas got Luka. Atlanta got Trae Young and a future pick (which became Cam Reddish). At the time, every mock 2018 NBA draft had Trae as a top-10 lock, but nobody knew if his game would work. He was tiny. He took shots from the logo.
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It was the Steph Curry effect.
Atlanta bet that gravity was more important than size. For a while, it looked like a wash. Trae was putting up 30 and 10, taking the Hawks to the Conference Finals. Luka was becoming a global superstar. Looking back, Dallas clearly won, but Atlanta didn't "lose" in the traditional sense—they just chose a different path. It showed that the draft isn't just about talent; it's about the identity a franchise wants to have.
The Sleepers That Woke Up Late
The real value in 2018 was in the back half of the first round and into the second.
Anfernee Simons went 24th to Portland. He didn't even play college ball; he went to IMG Academy. He was a complete mystery. Most mocks had him as a "stash" candidate or a late second-rounder. Portland saw the twitchy athleticism and the pure stroke.
Robert Williams III (Time Lord) fell to 27th because of "character concerns" and health issues. When he’s on the floor, he’s one of the most impactful defenders in basketball. Jalen Brunson went 33rd! Think about that. A guy who just signed a massive deal to be the face of the Knicks was a second-round pick. He was "too small" and "too slow."
Sound familiar? It’s the same thing they said about Luka.
Why We Get It Wrong
- Over-indexing on height: Being tall is great. Being able to play basketball is better.
- The "Freshman" Bias: We fall in love with the 19-year-old who has potential and ignore the 21-year-old who knows how to play (like Brunson or Bridges).
- Ignoring Context: A player's success depends heavily on the system. Put Luka in Phoenix with a coach who didn't want him? Maybe he’s not Luka yet.
What This Means for Future Evaluating
If you're looking at a mock 2018 NBA draft today, don't just look at the hits and misses. Look at the why. The misses happened because people were looking at the NBA of 2008, not 2018. They wanted centers who anchored the paint and wings who looked like track stars.
They missed the guys who could think the game.
Basketball is becoming a game of decisions per second. Luka and SGA don't beat you with speed; they beat you with timing. If a player in the current draft cycle is being called "unathletic" but dominates the pace of the game, pay attention. That’s the lesson of 2018.
Actionable Insights for Following the Draft:
- Scout the "Feel": Watch how a player reacts when a play breaks down. Do they panic, or do they find the open man?
- Ignore the Wingspan Obsession: Unless they are a rim protector, wingspan is secondary to lateral quickness and hand-eye coordination.
- Look for Multi-Year College Players: The "One and Done" era is fading. Experienced players like Mikal Bridges or Jalen Brunson provide immediate value that raw teenagers often never reach.
- Analyze the Team Fit: A great player on a team with no developmental staff is a bust waiting to happen. Always look at the organization's history of player development before judging a pick.
The 2018 class proved that the "best" player isn't always the one who jumps the highest. Sometimes, it's just the guy who sees the game a half-second faster than everyone else.