It used to be a joke. Seriously. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, if you saw a Japanese horse on the entry list for the Kentucky Derby, you basically ignored it. They were the "tourist" horses. They’d fly in, look great in the morning workouts, get absolutely bounced around in the dirt at Churchill Downs, and finish 15 lengths back. People called it a vanity project for rich owners.
But things changed.
The "Japan horse Kentucky Derby" narrative shifted from a novelty to a legitimate threat so fast it gave the Kentucky establishment whiplash. We aren't just talking about participation trophies anymore. We are talking about horses like Forever Young losing the 2024 Derby by a literal nose and a couple of bumps in a three-way photo finish. If you were watching that race, you saw Ryusei Sakai nearly pull off the impossible. It wasn't luck. It was the result of a twenty-year plan to dominate global dirt racing.
The obsession with Sunday Silence
You can't talk about Japanese success without talking about a horse the Americans didn't want: Sunday Silence. He won the Derby and the Preakness in 1989, but the Bluegrass "old guard" never really loved him. They thought he was narrow and crooked. So, Zenya Yoshida bought him and shipped him to Shadai Stallion Station in Hokkaido.
It was the heist of the century.
Sunday Silence became the God-emperor of Japanese breeding. He injected a level of speed and "will to win" into the Japanese herd that changed their DNA. Now, his descendants are coming back to Kentucky to take the one trophy the old man already had on his shelf. It’s a revenge arc, honestly. Most of the Japanese runners we see today carry that bloodline, and they’ve combined it with an insane work ethic.
Why they are actually better prepared now
The Japanese training style is different. It’s intense. While American trainers often worry about "bouncing" a horse—basically overworking them so they run a bad race next time—the Japanese trainers like Yoshito Yahagi (the guy in the colorful hats) train them like Olympic triathletes.
💡 You might also like: Duke Football Recruiting 2025: Manny Diaz Just Flipped the Script in Durham
They use uphill gallops. They use high-tech woodchip tracks.
But the biggest factor is the travel. A Japan horse headed for the Kentucky Derby usually takes the "Middle East path." They go to the Saudi Derby or the UAE Derby in Dubai first. It’s a brutal travel schedule, but it builds a certain kind of mental toughness. By the time they get to Louisville, they’ve already seen the world. They don't spook at the crowd of 150,000 people because they’ve been through the ringer.
In 2023, Derma Sotogake showed everyone that the gap had closed. He finished sixth, but he was closing fast. Then came 2024. Forever Young arrived unbeaten. He had this weird, grinding style where he didn't seem to care about getting dirt kicked in his face—which is usually what kills international horses at Churchill Downs.
The dirt problem is disappearing
Historically, Japan was all about turf. Their dirt tracks were deep, sandy, and slow—nothing like the "highway" speed of American dirt. If you put a Japanese dirt horse on a fast track in Kentucky, they usually couldn't keep up with the early fractions.
That’s over.
Japanese breeders started buying American mares specifically to bridge the gap. They wanted that early "American speed" to mix with their "Japanese stamina." You see the results in horses like T O Password or Crown Pride. They can sit near the lead now. They aren't just one-paced grinders anymore.
📖 Related: Dodgers Black Heritage Night 2025: Why It Matters More Than the Jersey
Also, look at the money. The Japanese Racing Association (JRA) is the wealthiest racing body in the world. The purses in Japan are so high that owners can afford to keep their best horses and wait for the right moment. When they send a horse to the Kentucky Derby, it’s because they genuinely believe the horse is a freak of nature. They aren't guessing.
It’s a numbers game now
For a long time, Japan only got one spot through a special "Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby" points system. It felt like a charity invite. Now, the quality is so high that they are starting to qualify through the traditional routes too.
Recent Japan Horse Kentucky Derby Performances
- 2024: Forever Young – 3rd (Lost by a head/nose in a three-way finish)
- 2024: T O Password – 5th (Massive run for a horse with only two starts)
- 2023: Derma Sotogake – 6th
- 2022: Crown Pride – 13th (Set a suicidal pace and faded)
- 2019: Master Fencer – 6th (The first real sign the tide was turning)
The 2024 race was the turning point. If Forever Young doesn't get bumped by Sierra Leone in the stretch, he probably wins. Even the most cynical Kentucky trainers admitted afterward that the "Japan horse" is no longer an underdog. They are the favorites.
What this means for your bets
If you're looking at a Japan horse in the Kentucky Derby program, you have to throw away the old "overseas bounce" theory. It doesn’t apply.
First, check their performance in the UAE Derby. If they won it by five lengths without being asked, they are a top-five contender in Louisville. Second, look at the jockey. Ryusei Sakai and Christophe Lemaire are world-class. They aren't intimidated by the Churchill Downs jockeys' room.
The betting value is also shrinking. You used to get 50-1 on these horses. Now? Forever Young went off at 6-1. The secret is out. Everyone knows the "Japan horse" is coming for the crown, and the bettors are adjusting.
👉 See also: College Football Top 10: What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Rankings
Honestly, the atmosphere has changed. You walk around the backside at Churchill during Derby week, and the Japanese media presence is enormous. There are more cameras following the Japanese contenders than the local favorites. It feels like a takeover.
The future is inevitable
It’s going to happen. A Japanese horse will win the Kentucky Derby. Probably soon.
They’ve already won the Breeders' Cup Distaff and the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. They’ve won the Dubai World Cup. The Derby is the last "American" fortress left to fall. The level of investment from owners like Susumu Fujita ensures that the quality of horses being sent over will only increase.
When it happens, it won't be an upset. It’ll be the logical conclusion of a thirty-year obsession with being the best in the world.
How to scout the next Japanese Derby contender
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, you need to watch the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun in December. It’s a two-year-old race in Japan that usually features the heavy hitters for the next year's Derby trail.
Don't just look at the winner. Look at the horse that finishes third or fourth while trapped wide on the turns. Japanese dirt racing is notoriously physical. If a horse can handle the "sand" and the kickback there, the American dirt will feel like a carpet to them.
Keep an eye on the trainers. While Yahagi is the big name, trainers like Shinsuke Terada and Koichi Shintani are masterminds at peak-timing a horse for a specific day. If they ship, they mean business.
The era of the "tourist horse" is dead. Long live the new kings of the dirt.