College football is basically a billion-dollar arms race where the ammo is teenagers. If you’ve spent any time on message boards in December or February, you know the obsession. We’re talking about grown adults tracking flight patterns of private jets and decoding cryptic emoji tweets from 17-year-olds. At the center of this madness sits the 247 recruiting class rankings, the industry standard that can make a fanbase feel like they're winning a National Championship months before spring practice even starts.
But here’s the thing.
Rankings aren't destiny. They are data points. If you look at the blue-chip ratio—a term coined by Bud Elliott—you see that you basically need more four and five-star players than two and three-star players to win a title. It’s a math problem. 247Sports tries to solve that problem by aggregating their own scouts' opinions with those from across the industry to create the Composite. It's a massive undertaking.
The guts of the 247 recruiting class rankings system
How do they actually build this thing? It isn't just a guy in a basement watching YouTube highlights.
The 247 recruiting class rankings rely on a proprietary algorithm. It’s weighted. This is where people get confused. If Team A has 25 commits and Team B has 15, Team A will almost always be higher, even if Team B has better players on average. It’s about the total "talent' brought into the building. However, the algorithm uses a Gaussian distribution (a bell curve, basically) so that your 25th commit is worth way less to your total score than your 1st commit.
It prevents teams from "gaming" the system by just taking 40 mediocre players to climb the ranks.
Ratings are tiered:
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- Five-stars (98-110 rating): The elite. Usually the top 32 players, representing the number of first-round NFL draft picks.
- Four-stars (90-97 rating): High-level starters. These are the guys who fill out the rosters of the Top 10 teams.
- Three-stars (80-89 rating): The "project" players or the overlooked gems.
Honestly, the difference between a high three-star and a low four-star is often just who showed up to which camp in July. It’s subjective. Scouts like Andrew Ivins or Cooper Petagna spend thousands of hours on the road, but they can't see everyone.
Why the Composite is usually better than a single source
You’ll notice 247Sports provides two rankings: their own "Top247" and the "Composite."
The Composite is a "poll of polls." It takes 247’s own evaluations and mixes them with Rivals and On3. It’s designed to filter out the noise. If one scout hates a kid because he had a bad game in the rain, but three other scouts think he’s the next Sauce Gardner, the Composite levels that out. It reduces the "hit rate" of total busts.
Think of it like the stock market. You don't just trust one analyst. You look at the consensus.
The rise of the Transfer Portal complication
Everything changed with the portal. Now, 247 recruiting class rankings often have to be viewed alongside "Overall" rankings that include transfers. This has made the traditional high school ranking a bit of a legacy metric.
Look at Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin. They might have a "mediocre" high school class (ranked 30th), but they'll pull the #1 transfer class. If you only look at the high school numbers, you’re missing the fact that they just bought a veteran defense. 247 has adapted by offering a "Commits" rank and an "Overall" rank. If you’re a fan, you want to look at the Overall. High school kids are for the future; transfers are for Saturday.
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The "Star" debate and developmental realities
Does a five-star always beat a three-star? No. Obviously.
But over a large sample size? Absolutely.
The NFL Draft proves this every single April. A five-star recruit is roughly 30 times more likely to be drafted in the first round than a three-star. Those are the numbers. People love to point at J.J. Watt (a former two-star tight end) or Baker Mayfield (a walk-on) as proof that rankings are garbage. Those are "outliers." They are the exceptions that prove the rule.
The 247 recruiting class rankings aren't trying to predict who has the most "heart." They are measuring physical traits: wingspan, verified 40-yard dash times, shot put throws (great for offensive line projection), and competition level.
Where the rankings fail
Evaluating offensive linemen is notoriously difficult. It's the hardest position to rank. You're looking at a 16-year-old who weighs 260 pounds and trying to guess if he can carry 315 pounds and still move his feet in three years.
Quarterbacks are also tricky because of the "private coach" effect. Some kids look amazing in shorts at a 7-on-7 camp with no pass rush, but they crumble when a 300-pound defensive tackle is screaming at them. 247 tries to account for this by prioritizing multi-sport athletes. If a kid plays basketball or runs track, his ceiling is usually higher.
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How to use these rankings without losing your mind
If your team is in the top 5, you’re in the hunt for a playoff spot. If they’re between 10 and 25, you’re a "good" team that needs elite coaching to overachieve. If you're outside the top 30, you're basically hoping to find diamonds in the rough.
Keep an eye on the Average Rating Per Commit. This is the "hidden" stat.
If a team has the #10 class but only 14 players, their Average might be higher than the team at #5. That tells you the roster quality is actually elite, they just had fewer spots to fill. That’s a sign of a healthy program.
Actionable Steps for Tracking the 247 Recruiting Class Rankings
- Stop looking at total points until December. Early rankings are meaningless because they are based on volume. Wait until at least 15 players are committed to see where the "floor" of the class actually sits.
- Focus on the "Blue-Chip Ratio." Check how many 4 and 5-stars your team has compared to the total class. If it's over 50%, you're in the elite tier of college football.
- Cross-reference with the Transfer Portal. A low high school rank isn't a death sentence if your coach is a "Portal King." Check the 247 "Overall" team rankings for a more accurate picture of next year's roster.
- Follow regional scouts on social media. National guys are great, but the regional scouts (like those covering the Southeast or Texas) often provide the "why" behind a sudden jump in a player's ranking.
- Watch the "re-rankings" in January. After the All-American bowls (like the Army All-American or Under Armour games), 247 does a final massive update. This is where the most accurate evaluations happen because the best play against the best.
The reality is that 247 recruiting class rankings are a snapshot of potential. Coaching, strength programs, and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) determine if that potential actually turns into wins. Use the rankings as a roadmap, but don't be surprised when a three-star linebacker from rural Iowa ends up winning the Butkus Award. It’s part of the game.
To get the most out of your team's data, always toggle between the "Composite" and the "247Sports" specific rankings to see where the internal scouts differ from the industry consensus. This often highlights the "risky" recruits that could either be superstars or total busts.