If you’re still asking whose winning the presidential election, the answer is pretty definitive now that we’re sitting in early 2026. Donald Trump is currently the 47th President of the United States. He didn't just squeak by either; he pulled off a 312 to 226 Electoral College victory over Vice President Kamala Harris back in November 2024.
It feels like forever ago, but also like it was just yesterday.
The dust has settled on the maps, the lawsuits are mostly history, and the 119th Congress is in full swing with a Republican trifecta. But why does the question still pop up in searches? Honestly, it’s probably because the 2024 race was such a wild ride that people are still trying to wrap their heads around how the "blue wall" crumbled and what it means for the next time we head to the polls.
The Map That Changed Everything
Basically, the 2024 election was decided by seven big battlegrounds.
Trump swept all of them.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin—the famous Blue Wall—all went red. Then you’ve got the Sun Belt: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. Every single one of them landed in Trump’s column. For the first time since George W. Bush in 2004, a Republican actually won the national popular vote too. He pulled in about 77.3 million votes compared to Harris’s 75 million.
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It wasn't just a win. It was a shift.
Why Harris Couldn't Hold the Line
Kamala Harris had a tough hill to climb from the jump. Taking over for Joe Biden mid-summer was basically like trying to change a tire while the car is doing 80 on the interstate. She did okay in the debates, and the "brat summer" energy was real for a minute, but it didn't translate into the voting booth where it mattered.
The "vibe shift" was real.
A lot of analysts, like the folks over at Pew Research, noticed that Harris actually underperformed Biden’s 2020 numbers in almost every single county. Think about that for a second. Even in deep blue strongholds like New Jersey and New York, the margins tightened up significantly. People were frustrated. Inflation, whether it was actually "solved" or not, felt very real at the grocery store.
The Coalitions That Flipped the Script
One of the biggest surprises—or maybe not a surprise if you were paying attention to the ground game—was the Hispanic vote.
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Trump got nearly 48% of Hispanic voters.
That’s huge. In 2020, Biden won that group by 25 points. In 2024, that lead for the Democrats shrank to single digits. You saw this most clearly in places like Miami-Dade County in Florida, which flipped red for the first time in decades.
- Black Voters: Trump doubled his support here, moving from 8% in 2020 to about 15% in 2024.
- Young Men: This was a massive demographic shift. Men under 30 moved toward the GOP in droves, driven by concerns over the economy and a general feeling of being "left behind" by cultural shifts.
- The Educational Gap: This is the new dividing line in American politics. If you have a college degree, you likely voted for Harris (57%). If you don't, you almost certainly went with Trump (56%).
Is 2026 the New 2024?
We are currently in the mid-term cycle of 2026.
The "who is winning" question is starting to pivot toward the House and Senate again. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms. However, the Trump administration has been aggressive with its "Day 1" promises—tariffs, energy production hikes, and border enforcement.
Whether those policies are "winning" depends entirely on who you ask at a diner in Scranton or a tech office in Austin.
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What This Means for Your Ballot
If you’re looking at the current political landscape, the most important thing to realize is that the old "rules" are dead. The idea that certain states are "safely blue" or "safely red" is becoming a bit of a myth.
Look at Virginia or New Mexico. They stayed blue, but they were much closer than anyone expected.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Cycle:
- Check your registration now. Don't wait until the month before the midterms. States have been purging rolls and changing mail-in rules.
- Follow the money, but watch the ground. 2024 showed us that billion-dollar ad spends don't always beat a candidate who resonates with a specific "vibe" or economic frustration.
- Ignore the "national" polls. If we learned anything, it’s that the state-level data in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is the only thing that actually tells the story.
The 2024 election didn't just end a race; it started a whole new era of coalition building. Whether the GOP can hold onto these new voters in 2026 is the real story we’re watching right now. Keep an eye on the inflation indices and the job reports—that's where the next "winner" is currently being decided.