If you’re looking for a simple "who is winning" answer right now, it’s complicated. We aren't in a presidential election year, but the shadow of the next one is already huge. Honestly, the 2026 political landscape feels more like a referendum on the current administration than a head-to-head race.
Right now, President Donald Trump is sitting at an average approval rating of roughly 42.6%, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate from January 15, 2026. That’s not great, but it’s oddly consistent. Some folks call it the "Trump Floor." No matter what happens with foreign policy or the economy, about 4 in 10 Americans seem to stick by him.
But "winning" is a relative term. If you’re a Democrat, you’re looking at these numbers and seeing a massive opening. If you’re a Republican, you’re probably looking at the 54% disapproval rating and feeling a bit of a chill.
The Approval Gap: Why the Numbers Are Stuck
It’s kinda wild how little these numbers move. We’ve seen a ton of action in the last year—intervention in Venezuela, talk about Greenland again, and massive shifts in immigration enforcement. Yet, the AP-NORC poll released this morning shows Trump's approval is virtually unchanged from where it was in March 2025.
People have made up their minds.
The Hard Data (As of mid-January 2026):
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- RealClearPolitics Average: 42.6% Approve / 54.9% Disapprove
- The Economist: 40% Approve / 56% Disapprove
- Quinnipiac University: 40% Approve / 54% Disapprove
- Reuters/Ipsos: 44.3% Approve (from earlier in the month)
You've got a situation where the "disapprove" side is consistently over 50%. In historical terms, that’s a danger zone for any incumbent's party heading into the midterms.
The Economy is the Real "Poll"
Basically, the biggest thing dragging down the numbers isn't the headlines about military action; it's the grocery store. Only about 31% to 33% of people approve of the handling of the economy. That is a second-term low.
There’s this weird split happening. While the administration points to certain indicators, a Brookings report notes that 61% of Americans feel like the talk about lower prices is just "making it sound better than it really is."
When 53% of the country thinks the economy is getting worse, "who's winning" becomes a question of who the public blames. Right now, about 47% of voters are pinning the tail on the current administration, while only 22% are still blaming the previous one. That’s a shift. Usually, the "it's the last guy's fault" card works for at least two years. It seems to be expiring early this time around.
Who's Winning the 2028 Shadow Race?
Even though the next presidential election is years away, the polls are already testing the waters. This is where it gets interesting for the junkies who track this stuff daily.
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- Gavin Newsom vs. Kamala Harris: Recent Atlas Intel polls suggest Newsom is surging among Democrats, potentially moving ahead of Harris in a hypothetical primary.
- JD Vance: The Vice President is holding a slim lead (about 1%) in head-to-head matchups against Newsom in some early Emerson College polling.
- The "Outsiders": In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro is sitting on a 60% job approval rating. That is massive. He’s outperforming national figures in 2028 matchups within his own state.
It's important to remember that these "way-out" polls are mostly about name recognition and current vibes. They don't predict the future, but they do tell us who has a "brand" that's working.
The 2026 Midterm Factor
Who's winning the presidential polls is often a proxy for how the 2026 midterms will go.
Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, they are favored over Republicans 40% to 35% on handling the economy—a complete flip from the end of 2024. Among Independents, that lead stretches to 11 points.
If these numbers hold, the "win" for the opposition could be a regained majority in the House. Cook Political Report already shifted eighteen House ratings toward the Democrats this month.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Polls
Most people look at a poll and think it's a prediction. It's not. It's a snapshot of a mood.
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For instance, Trump’s approval on immigration is actually one of his strongest points—nearly half of Americans (45%) give him credit for helping border security. If the conversation stays on the border, he "wins." If the conversation stays on the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis woman by an ICE agent—which 57% of voters disapprove of in the latest Quinnipiac poll—he "loses."
Polls are about which topic is winning the day.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you're trying to keep track of who's actually ahead without getting lost in the noise, here is how to look at the data moving forward:
- Watch the "Net" Approval: Don't just look at the 42% approval. Look at the "Net." Right now, it's roughly -12. If that stays double-digit negative, the incumbent party usually loses seats in the next election.
- Follow the Independents: Trump’s approval among Independents is hovering around 35%. This is the group that decides elections. If that moves toward 40%, the landscape changes.
- Look at State-Level Polling: National polls are fun for headlines, but battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania tell the real story. Keep an eye on Shapiro in PA and the Senate races in Texas (where James Talarico is currently leading the Democratic primary) to see where the energy is shifting.
Don't get too hung up on a single "shock" poll. Look for the trendlines. When three or four different pollsters all show a 3-point drop in the same week, that's when you know something real is happening.
To stay truly informed, check the polling aggregates every Tuesday and Thursday when the big university and agency data sets usually drop. This will give you a clearer picture than any single news segment ever could.