Honestly, if you’re asking whos winning the presidential election so far, you’re probably looking at a map that’s already been colored in. It's January 2026. The dust from the 2024 cycle didn't just settle; it practically turned into concrete. Donald Trump is currently sitting in the Oval Office as the 47th President of the United States.
He didn't just squeak by, either. He cleared 312 electoral votes.
But when people ask "who is winning," they’re usually not just talking about the tally from a year ago. They’re talking about the "vibe" of the country, the legislative wins, and who is actually moving the needle in Washington right now. Politics doesn't stop just because the balloons have been popped and the podiums packed away.
The Current State of Play in 2026
Right now, the "winner" depends entirely on which metric you’re staring at. If you’re looking at the raw power to change federal policy, Trump is obviously the guy. His administration has been moving at a breakneck pace. Just this month, he signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act. That sounds like a small thing, but it’s a massive symbol of his "common sense" branding.
His team, featuring Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at HHS and Howard Lutnick at Commerce, is aggressively dismantling what they call the "deep state" bureaucracy.
On the other hand, if you look at the polls, the "winning" gets a bit murky. A recent Gallup poll from December put his approval rating at roughly 36%. That’s a steep drop from the 49.8% of the popular vote he pulled in 2024. Why the slump? It's usually the economy. Even though the White House is touting lower mortgage rates and a rebound in home sales, a lot of folks are still feeling the pinch of everyday costs.
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Why the 2024 Map Still Matters Today
The 2024 election was a bit of a shocker for the data nerds. Trump managed to flip all seven major swing states. Nevada? Red. Pennsylvania? Red. It was the first time a Republican won the popular vote since George W. Bush did it back in 2004.
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz ended up with 226 electoral votes. It wasn't particularly close in the end.
This "mandate," as the Trump team calls it, is why we’re seeing such aggressive executive orders today. They feel like they have the green light from the voters to go big. From withdrawing from international treaties to pausing immigrant visas for dozens of "high-risk" countries, the administration isn't exactly playing it safe or looking for middle ground.
Legal Battles and the "Second" Election
There is another way to look at whos winning the presidential election so far, and that’s through the lens of the courts. Even though Trump is in the White House, he’s still fighting "wars" with the previous administration’s holdovers.
Take the case of Lisa Cook. She’s a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. Trump tried to fire her back in August 2025. He basically said, "You're out," but the lower courts said, "Not so fast." Now, it’s headed to the Supreme Court.
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This is the "shadow election." It's a fight over who actually controls the levers of the US government—the elected President or the independent agencies. If Trump wins at the Supreme Court, he wins a level of presidential power we haven't seen in modern history.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Win"
Most people think a presidential win is a finish line. It's not. It's a starting gun.
Since taking office in January 2025, the administration has faced a wall of litigation. Environmental groups are suing over the "Climate Backtracker" policies—the administration has reportedly taken nearly 300 actions to scale back clean energy progress.
Meanwhile, JD Vance has been surprisingly active for a Vice President. He’s been the point man for the "America First" funding packages in the House. They aren't passing giant, 2,000-page bills anymore. They’re doing small, targeted "nibbles" at the budget. It’s a strategy that seems to be working for their base, even if it drives the opposition crazy.
The Economic Scorecard
If you want to know who’s winning the "kitchen table" election, check your grocery receipt.
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The administration claims dairy prices are down—butter by 3.4% and cheese by about 2%. They're also pointing to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hitting multi-year lows. If those trends continue into the midterms, the Republicans will probably feel like they’re "winning" the narrative.
But there’s a flip side. The aggressive trade moves, like the Section 232 actions on critical minerals, are a gamble. Trump is trying to force a domestic supply chain for things like rare earth elements. It’s "America First," but in the short term, it can make things more expensive or create supply hiccups.
Actionable Insights for Following the News
If you’re trying to keep track of the political scoreboard without losing your mind, here’s how to do it:
- Watch the SCOTUS Docket: The real limits of the 2024 "win" are being decided by the justices, not the pundits. Cases like Trump v. Cook will define the next three years.
- Ignore the National Approval Rating (Mostly): Look at specific policy polls instead. A President can have a 35% approval rating but still have 60% support for a specific trade policy or school lunch bill.
- Follow the "DOGE" Updates: The Department of Government Efficiency is the wild card. If they actually manage to cut significant "waste," it’ll be a massive talking point for 2028.
- Track the Swing States: Keep an eye on local news in places like Arizona and Georgia. Those voters are the ones who decided the last "win," and they’ll decide if the current administration is actually delivering.
The question of whos winning the presidential election so far doesn't have a static answer. Trump won the vote, but he's still fighting to win the "governance." Every executive order, every Supreme Court ruling, and every fluctuations in the price of a gallon of milk is a new play in a very long game.
To stay truly informed, look past the headlines about "slumping polls" or "landslide mandates." Look at the actual laws being signed and the court cases being argued. That’s where the real winning and losing happens in 2026.