Politics in 2025 has been a total wrecking ball. If you thought last year was chaotic, this year basically said, "Hold my coffee." We aren't just talking about a few small shifts in local polls; we’ve seen massive, historic landslides that have wiped out decades-old political dynasties and reshaped the map in places like Australia and Germany.
Honestly, it's a lot to keep track of. One minute a prime minister looks safe, and the next, they're losing their own seat in a humiliating defeat.
People keep asking: who's winning the election so far 2025? The answer depends on which corner of the map you're looking at, but there’s a clear, aggressive trend toward "out with the old." Voters are frustrated, and they aren't hiding it.
Australia: The Albanese Landslide That No One Saw Coming
Australia’s federal election on May 3, 2025, wasn't just a win for Labor—it was a decimation of the opposition. Anthony Albanese didn't just crawl across the finish line. He sprinted through it.
The Labor Party secured 94 seats in the House of Representatives. That is the highest number of seats ever won by a single party in Australian history. Period.
But the real shocker? Peter Dutton, the leader of the Liberal-National Coalition, lost his own seat of Dickson to Labor’s Ali France. It was a brutal night for the conservatives. They suffered their worst result since the party was formed back in 1944.
Voters basically sent a message that they were done with the old guard. Cost of living and housing were the biggest drivers here, and Labor managed to convince enough people that they had the plan to fix it.
Germany: The Center-Right Makes a Comeback
Over in Europe, Germany's February 23 federal election was another game-changer. The "traffic light" coalition under Olaf Scholz had been struggling for a long time, and the results showed exactly how unhappy the public was.
The center-right CDU/CSU alliance, led by Friedrich Merz, came out on top with 28.5% of the vote. They’ve since formed a "Grand Coalition" with the SPD, which managed to hang on to third place despite a massive loss of seats.
The Rise of the AfD
You can't talk about Germany in 2025 without mentioning the Alternative for Germany (AfD). They took second place with 20.8% of the vote.
- CDU/CSU: 208 seats (Winner)
- AfD: 152 seats (The insurgent force)
- SPD: 120 seats (The bruised survivor)
The far-right surge is real. While the mainstream parties have managed to keep them out of the ruling coalition for now, the AfD is no longer a fringe group—they are a major power player in the Bundestag.
Canada: The Mark Carney Factor
Canada's election on April 28, 2025, provided perhaps the most dramatic comeback of the year. For most of late 2024, it looked like Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were going to win in a landslide. Justin Trudeau’s polling was in the basement.
Then, everything changed. Trudeau stepped down in January, and Mark Carney—the former head of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England—took the reins.
The "Carney Effect" was like lightning in a bottle. In just a few months, he wiped out the Conservative lead. The Liberals won a fourth term, and while it's another minority government, they actually won the popular vote for the first time since 2015.
It turns out that changing the face of the party was exactly what Canadian voters needed to stay with the Liberals. Poilievre, who had been the favorite for over a year, suddenly found himself facing an opponent who could speak the language of the economy with more authority than anyone else in the room.
The Philippines: A Familiar Name at the Top
The midterms in the Philippines on May 12, 2025, confirmed that the Marcos-Romualdez alliance is still the undisputed heavyweight champion of the country's politics.
Lakas-CMD, the party led by Speaker Martin Romualdez, absolutely dominated the House of Representatives, securing 103 seats. This ensures that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will have a very smooth ride for the remainder of his term.
In the Senate race, names like Bam Aquino and Erwin Tulfo led the pack in the partial results. It’s a mix of old political families and media personalities, which is pretty standard for Philippine politics, but the sheer scale of the administration's win shows that the "UniTeam" (even with its internal cracks) is still the winning formula for now.
Who is Actually Winning Locally in the US?
While the big presidential showdown isn't the focus of 2025, the "off-year" elections in the United States gave us a glimpse into the 2026 mood.
In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger (Dem) took the Governor's seat with about 57.6% of the vote. New Jersey saw Mikie Sherrill (Dem) win with 56.9%.
What’s interesting is the New York City Mayor's race. Zohran Mamdani, running as a Democrat, pulled off a win with 50.8%, beating out independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
These aren't just local wins; they are barometers. They suggest that in suburban and urban areas, the Democratic base is highly mobilized, even in a year where the national "vibes" feel shaky.
Why the "Insiders" are Losing Everywhere Else
If you look at the 2025 trend, the common thread is impatience. Whether it’s Australia, Germany, or the UK (where the transition after the 2024 election is still settling), voters are punishing anyone they perceive as "stagnant."
- Inflation is the Kingmaker: If prices are up, incumbents are down. It’s that simple.
- Leadership Matters: Canada proved that a fresh face can reset a dying campaign.
- The Far-Right is a Permanent Fixture: From Portugal’s André Ventura making noise in the presidential race to the AfD in Germany, the populist right isn't a "phase." It's a settled part of the landscape.
What This Means for Your Next Move
If you're trying to keep up with who's winning the election so far 2025, you need to stop looking at single polls and start looking at the "change" factor. In every major election this year, the party that promised the most radical departure from the "status quo" (even if they were technically part of it, like Carney) came out on top.
Next Steps for Following the 2025 Cycles:
👉 See also: Lord Salisbury Prime Minister: Why the Man Who Hated Change Is Worth Remembering
- Watch the Portugal Runoff: On February 8, we’ll see if the populist surge carries through to the presidency.
- Monitor the German Coalition: Watch how the CDU and SPD manage to work together. If they fail to fix the economy, the AfD will only grow stronger.
- Track Canadian Inflation Data: Mark Carney’s honeymoon period will depend entirely on whether he can actually cool down the cost of living before his minority government faces another confidence vote.
The era of "safe" incumbents is officially over. 2025 is proof that if you aren't moving forward, you're getting moved out of the way.