If you’re asking who’s winning the election for president right now, the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at the rearview mirror or the horizon. Technically, the big "win" already happened. Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States. He secured a massive victory in November 2024, clearing 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226.
Honestly, it wasn't even as close as the pundits predicted.
He swept all seven battleground states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. It was the first time a Republican won the popular vote since 2004. So, in the most literal sense, Donald Trump is the winner. He’s currently in the White House, signing bills like the "Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act" and tinkering with tariffs.
But you're probably here because the "win" feels like a moving target.
Politics never actually stops. Even as the Trump administration settles into its second year, the "who's winning" conversation has already shifted toward the 2026 midterms and the looming 2028 race.
The Current Scoreboard in Washington
Right now, the GOP is winning the legislative game, but it's a tight squeeze. They hold a "trifecta"—the White House, the Senate, and a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
This means President Trump has had a relatively clear runway to appoint his cabinet, including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading Health and Human Services.
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But "winning" in D.C. is measured in weeks.
The administration’s aggressive use of tariffs and the launch of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have sparked massive debates. Some people see these as huge wins for the economy; others are bracing for market volatility.
What People Get Wrong About the 2024 Win
Most people think the 2024 election was just a "red wave." That’s a bit of an oversimplification.
It was more like a fundamental realignment. Groups that traditionally voted Democrat—especially Hispanic men and younger voters—shifted toward Trump in numbers we haven’t seen in decades.
If you want to know who is winning the election for president in terms of long-term strategy, the Republican Party’s ability to build this "multi-ethnic working-class coalition" is the real victory. It turned states like Florida and Ohio from "swing states" into "solid red" territory.
Looking Ahead: Who is Winning the 2028 Race?
It sounds crazy to talk about 2028 when we’re barely into 2026.
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Yet, the "invisible primary" is already happening. Since Donald Trump is term-limited and cannot run again, both parties are basically in a scramble to find their next champion.
The Republican Frontrunners
On the GOP side, Vice President JD Vance is the obvious heir apparent.
He’s been incredibly active, recently heading the American delegation to the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. But being the VP is a double-edged sword. Historically, only four sitting VPs have ever been elected directly to the presidency.
He has to stay loyal to Trump’s base while proving he can lead on his own.
Other names are constantly popping up in the rumor mill:
- Marco Rubio: His role as Secretary of State gives him massive international gravitas.
- Ron DeSantis: The Florida Governor still has a strong donor network.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders: She’s a favorite among the MAGA faithful.
The Democratic Comeback Trail
Democrats are currently in a "soul-searching" phase.
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Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, is widely seen as a top contender. He’s been building a national network and raising millions through his "Campaign for Democracy" PAC.
Recent polls from late 2025 showed him leading a crowded field of potential Democratic candidates, just slightly ahead of former VP Kamala Harris.
We’re also seeing "test-the-waters" moves from:
- Josh Shapiro: The Pennsylvania Governor who remains popular in a must-win state.
- Gretchen Whitmer: Michigan’s Governor, who offers a "Midwest-nice" but firm alternative.
- Pete Buttigieg: He remains a hit with the party's donor class and younger activists.
The 2026 Midterm Factor
You can’t talk about who’s winning the presidency without looking at the 2026 midterms.
If Democrats retake the House this year, the Trump administration’s "winning streak" hits a brick wall. Investigations will start. Funding for certain projects will dry up.
Historically, the party in power almost always loses seats during the midterms. If that happens, the momentum shifts back toward the Democrats heading into 2028.
Real-World Action Steps
If you're trying to keep track of who's actually winning the political tug-of-war, don't just look at the 24-hour news cycle. Do this instead:
- Watch the Special Elections: These are the "canaries in the coal mine." If a deep-red district suddenly swings blue (or vice-versa), it tells you more than a thousand polls.
- Follow the Money: Look at where the PACs are spending. Gavin Newsom’s fundraising numbers are a better indicator of his 2028 chances than his current Instagram likes.
- Monitor Approval Ratings: If Trump stays below a 50% approval rating throughout 2026, JD Vance’s path to 2028 becomes much, much harder.
- Pay Attention to the Courts: Decisions on executive power and tariffs will determine how much "winning" the current president can actually do without Congressional approval.
The 2024 election ended with a clear winner, but the race for the American future is effectively tied as we head into the next legislative cycle.