If you’re checking the news today, January 17, 2026, you might be feeling a bit of deja vu. It’s been exactly one year since the second Trump inauguration, and honestly, the political landscape is looking pretty wild. People keep asking whos winning in the presidential race, which is kind of a funny question given we aren't in an election year here in the States. But if you look at the 2026 midterm forecasts and the early 2028 "shadow" primary polls, the answer is complicated.
Most folks are looking at the 2024 results—where Donald Trump took 312 Electoral College votes and roughly 49.8% of the popular vote—and assuming that momentum stayed. It didn't. Usually, a winning candidate gets a "honeymoon" period. Not this time.
The Numbers Behind Who’s Winning in the Presidential Race Right Now
When we talk about winning in a non-election year, we’re talking about approval ratings and "generic ballot" polls. Basically, if the election were held today, would the incumbent party hold the House and Senate?
According to the latest Gallup data from late 2025 and early January 2026, President Trump’s approval rating has hit a second-term low of 36%. That’s a massive slide from the 47% he held on Inauguration Day 2025. Meanwhile, disapproval has climbed to about 60%.
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Why does this matter for the midterms? Because history is a brutal teacher. When a president is underwater by double digits, their party usually gets hammered in the following November. Right now, Democrats are leading the generic congressional ballot by about 5 to 7 points in most aggregate trackers.
- Republican Core: Still loyal, but showing cracks. Trump holds about 84% approval within his own party—a 7-point drop from last month.
- Independents: This is where the "win" is being lost. Approval among independents has cratered to 25%.
- The Issues: Voters are currently most frustrated with healthcare policy (30% approval) and the federal budget. Interestingly, the President still polls relatively "well" on crime at 43%, though even that is a far cry from a majority.
Global Context: Presidential Races Abroad
If you aren't just looking at the U.S., the question of whos winning in the presidential race has very concrete answers in other parts of the world this week.
In Uganda, the results just came in for their 2026 general election. Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was declared the winner with 71.65% of the vote. His main rival, Bobi Wine, officially received about 24.7%. However, it's worth noting that the lead-up to this was incredibly messy. There was an internet blackout and Bobi Wine has claimed the results were fabricated while he was essentially under house arrest.
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Then you’ve got Costa Rica. They are gearing up for their 2026 vote on February 1st. Right now, Laura Fernández is leading the pack. She’s polling near 40%, which is the magic number in Costa Rica to avoid a runoff. She’s running on a center-right platform, focusing heavily on a "tough-on-crime" stance that seems to be a global trend this year.
Why the "Winner" Changes Every Week
Politics in 2026 is basically a 24-hour mood swing.
You’ve probably seen the headlines about the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis woman by an ICE agent earlier this month. That single event shifted immigration approval ratings by nearly 9 points in a single week. According to Quinnipiac, 57% of voters now disapprove of current ICE enforcement methods.
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When people ask whos winning in the presidential race, they’re often looking for a definitive "Red" or "Blue" victory. But the truth is, in 2026, "Neither" is winning. 46% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans say they’re desperate for more party options. There’s a massive exhaustion with the two-party system that is arguably the biggest "winner" in the current polling data.
What to Watch Moving Forward
If you want to know who will actually be winning by the time the 2026 midterms hit this November, keep your eyes on three specific metrics:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI): If inflation ticks back up, the incumbent party’s "win" disappears instantly.
- Special Election Results: Watch the special elections in suburban districts over the next three months. They are much better predictors than phone polls.
- The 2028 Shadow Primary: Names like Josh Shapiro are already hitting 60% job approval in key swing states like Pennsylvania. He's currently outperforming potential GOP rivals in hypothetical 2028 matchups.
Ultimately, the person "winning" today is whoever can stay out of the headline cycle. The more a candidate or leader is in the news in 2026, the lower their numbers seem to go.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Check Local Special Election Results: National polls are noisy. Local turnout in 2026 special elections provides the only "hard" data on voter enthusiasm.
- Monitor the Generic Congressional Ballot: Use sites like 538 or Cook Political Report to track the aggregate. A lead of 5+ points for the out-party usually signals a "wave" election.
- Look at Issue-Specific Polling: Don't just look at "Do you like the President?" Look at "How do you feel about the cost of housing?" That’s what will decide the next winner.