The dust from the 2024 election has long settled. But honestly, people are still asking the same question: who's winning Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the grand scheme of American politics? If you’re looking for the score of the actual game, the answer is definitive. Donald Trump won. He's currently sitting in the Oval Office as the 47th President of the United States.
It wasn't just a squeaker, either. Trump pulled off a feat we haven't seen since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s—winning non-consecutive terms. He didn't just win the Electoral College; he took the popular vote too. That’s something Republicans haven’t managed to do since 2004.
The Brutal Math of the 2024 Election
Let's look at the raw numbers because they tell a story that vibes differently than the pre-election polls suggested. Trump ended up with 312 electoral votes. Kamala Harris finished with 226. To put that in perspective, you only need 270 to move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
He swept the "Blue Wall." Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all flipped red. Then he grabbed the Sun Belt—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. It was a clean sweep of the seven major battleground states.
Harris had a tough road. She took over the ticket late in the game after President Joe Biden stepped aside in July 2024. While she energized a base that felt a bit stagnant, the "vibes" didn't translate into enough votes in the places that matter most. She won about 75 million votes (48.3%), while Trump pulled in over 77 million (49.8%).
Why the Shift Happened
People often wonder how a former president with multiple indictments and a controversial exit in 2020 managed to come back. Basically, it came down to the "kitchen table" issues.
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Prices. Rent. Groceries.
Exit polls showed that voters felt the economy under the Biden-Harris administration was headed in the wrong direction. Even though inflation was technically cooling off by late 2024, the cumulative cost of living had already stung. Trump’s message of "Make America Affordable Again" landed hard with voters who remembered the pre-pandemic economy of 2019.
Who's Winning Donald Trump or Kamala Harris Right Now in 2026?
We are now officially in the "midterm" cycle of 2026. If the question is about who is "winning" the narrative today, it’s a lot more complicated than a simple election result.
President Trump is currently dealing with the "Year Two Blues." It happens to almost every president. His approval ratings, which were around 47% on Inauguration Day in 2025, have taken a dip. Recent Gallup data from December 2025 put him at about 36% approval. Why? Largely because his signature policy—wide-scale tariffs—has started to bite.
The Tariff Tussle
Trump's "America First" trade policy is a double-edged sword. On one hand, he’s trying to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. On the other hand, 75% of Americans in recent Brookings reports say they believe these tariffs are driving up the prices of everyday goods.
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While Trump claims the economy is "poised for a boom," a Harris poll (the polling firm, not the person) recently found that 45% of Americans feel their financial security is actually getting worse. This creates a massive opening for the Democrats as they look toward the 2026 midterms.
Where Is Kamala Harris?
Kamala Harris hasn't exactly faded into the background. While she's no longer the Vice President, she remains a central figure for the Democratic Party. Many see her as the "leader in exile," though she's facing competition from names like California Governor Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who are both clearly eyeing 2028.
Newsom, in particular, has been very vocal, positioning himself as the "resistance" to Trump's second-term policies. This creates a weird dynamic. Harris is the most recent standard-bearer, but the party is soul-searching. They’re trying to figure out how they lost so much ground with Hispanic men and younger voters in 2024.
Demographic Shifts That Flipped the Script
The most shocking part of the Trump-Harris matchup wasn't just the final count; it was who voted for whom.
- Hispanic Voters: Trump made massive gains here. In 2024, he won 60% of Hispanic men who didn't vote in 2020. That is a seismic shift in American politics.
- The Youth Vote: Historically, Democrats dominate the under-30 crowd. While Harris still won this group, her margin was significantly smaller than Biden’s in 2020. About 8% of young voters who backed Biden flipped to Trump.
- The Education Gap: This is the new "Great Divide." Harris won people with postgraduate degrees by a landslide (65% to 33%). Trump, however, dominated among voters without a four-year degree.
Real-World Impact in 2026
If you’re watching the news today, January 17, 2026, you'll see a White House that is extremely active. President Trump just proclaimed yesterday as "Religious Freedom Day." He’s also been pushing a 20-point peace plan for Gaza, working with figures like Jared Kushner and even former UK PM Tony Blair.
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But for the average person, "winning" is measured by the bank account.
Trump is betting that his deregulation and energy policies will eventually lower costs. Democrats are betting that the public will get tired of the chaos and the price hikes associated with trade wars.
Actionable Insights for Following the 2026 Cycle
If you're trying to track who's actually "winning" the political tug-of-war as we head into the midterms, ignore the national "head-to-head" polls for a bit. They don't mean much right now. Instead, look at these specific metrics:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is the real scoreboard. If inflation stays sticky or rises due to tariffs, Trump’s "winning" streak will likely end at the 2026 midterms.
- Special Election Results: Keep an eye on any House vacancies. These are the "canaries in the coal mine." If Democrats start over-performing in "purple" districts, it’s a sign of a looming "Blue Wave" for the midterms.
- Generic Congressional Ballot: This is the question: "Would you rather have a Democrat or a Republican in Congress?" Currently, Democrats hold about a 4.5-point edge here, suggesting the public is looking for a check on Trump’s power.
The reality is that Donald Trump won the 2024 battle. He has the power, the pens, and the pulpit. But in American politics, "winning" is a temporary state. The 2026 midterms will be the first real test of whether the Trump realignment is a permanent shift or just a one-time reaction to post-COVID inflation.
To get the most accurate picture of the current landscape, monitor the "swing" members of the GOP in the House. Their willingness to break with the President on tariff legislation or healthcare policy is the best indicator of how much political capital Trump actually has left as he enters the second year of his term.
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