Look, everyone wants to know who the "it" horse is as soon as the calendar flips to January. If you’re asking who's the favorite in the Kentucky Derby right now, the answer starts and ends with a colt named Ted Noffey.
He’s the alpha.
But horse racing is a brutal game where a single bad step or a slight cough can derail a multi-million dollar dream. So, while Ted Noffey is sitting on top of the world after an undefeated 2-year-old season, the "favorite" tag is more of a target than a trophy. Honestly, the Road to the Kentucky Derby is littered with horses that looked like Secretariat in January and ended up in the claiming ranks by May.
The King of the Hill: Ted Noffey
Ted Noffey isn't just winning; he's dominant. Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by the powerhouse Spendthrift Farm, this son of Into Mischief basically toyed with the field in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar last October. He’s 4-for-4. That’s a perfect record across four different starts, including the Hopeful and the Breeders’ Futurity.
Most people get the "favorite" thing wrong because they only look at the wins.
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You’ve gotta look at how he did it. He tracked a fast pace in the Juvenile, looked Brant in the eye, and then just... went. He covered the distance in 1:42.25 and earned a massive 114 Equibase Speed Figure. That’s grown-man fast for a two-year-old. Pletcher just got him back on the workout tab at Palm Beach Downs, where he breezed three furlongs in :37.01 on January 16.
He looked sharp. Smooth.
Pletcher has already circled the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28 as the comeback spot. Right now, in the Churchill Downs Future Wager Pool 3, he’s the 6-1 individual favorite. If you’re betting him now, you’re basically betting that he won't get hurt and that no one else will get faster. It's a gamble.
The Contenders Snapping at His Heels
Who's the favorite in the Kentucky Derby if Ted Noffey falters? That’s where things get interesting. You have to look at Paladin.
Paladin is the $1.9 million baby.
Chad Brown trains this one, and the horse lived up to the price tag by gritting out a win in the Remsen Stakes in December. He’s got the "million-dollar auction" pedigree, but he actually has the heart to match it. Some experts, like those over at America’s Best Racing, actually prefer Renegade at 40-1 over Paladin at 10-1 just because the odds gap is so wide for two horses that finished inches apart in New York.
Then there's the Bob Baffert factor.
Baffert has a trio of monsters in California. Litmus Test just took down the Los Alamitos Futurity and sits second on the leaderboard with 19 points. He’s battle-tested. He’s run in four straight graded stakes. Then you have Brant, the $3 million horse who led the Juvenile before finishing third. He hasn't worked since the Breeders' Cup, which makes some people nervous. Kinda feels like they're waiting for him to grow into that massive frame.
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Don't sleep on the Japanese contingent either. Pyromancer is heading to the UAE Derby in Dubai. If he wins there, he’s coming to Louisville with a massive amount of hype. Satono Voyage is another one to watch; he’s 3-for-3 in Japan and looks like he could run through a brick wall.
Why Being the Favorite is a Curse
Being the winter favorite is sorta like being the preseason #1 in college football. You have nowhere to go but down. Since 2000, only a handful of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners have actually gone on to wear the roses. Street Sense did it. Nyquist did it.
Most of them? They peak too early.
They’re like the kid in eighth grade who’s already six feet tall and shaving. By the time the Derby rolls around on May 2, the other horses have hit their growth spurts. They catch up.
There's also the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" points system to consider. Ted Noffey has 40 points, which is usually enough to get in. But horses like Mr. A.P. (15 points) and Intrepido (13 points) are one big win away from jumping him in the standings.
What to Look For in the Coming Weeks
If you’re trying to handicap this, watch the "Prep Season" closely. We just had the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds where Golden Tempo made a massive last-to-first move. That’s the kind of style that wins Derbies.
The Holy Bull at Gulfstream is coming up. Pletcher is likely sending Nearly, a son of Not This Time who won by five lengths recently. If Nearly wins big, does he become the favorite over his stablemate Ted Noffey?
Probably not, but the odds will shift.
The Kentucky Derby is about stamina. 1 1/4 miles is a long way for a three-year-old. Ted Noffey’s mom, Streak of Luck, was a route winner, so the stamina is there. But until they actually run the distance, it’s all just talk and spreadsheets.
Betting the Futures
Honestly, if you're looking at who's the favorite in the Kentucky Derby for betting purposes, the "All Other 3-Year-Olds" option in the future pools is often the smartest play. It’s currently 4-1. That’s because the "winner" might be sitting in a maiden race in February that nobody has heard of yet.
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Think about it.
Rich Strike wasn't on anyone's radar in January. Mage wasn't the favorite. The Derby loves a story, and the story rarely follows the script written in the winter.
Current Top 5 on the Leaderboard (as of Jan 18, 2026):
- Ted Noffey (40 points) - The undefeated king.
- Litmus Test (19 points) - Baffert's battle-hardened soldier.
- Mr. A.P. (15 points) - The son of American Pharoah who almost caught Ted.
- Universe (13 points) - Kenny McPeek’s long-distance threat.
- Intrepido (13 points) - A gritty California contender.
Actionable Strategy for Derby Fans
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't just watch the results; watch the "gallop outs." When a horse crosses the finish line in a prep race, do they stop immediately, or do they keep running past the turn? That tells you who wants more distance.
Keep an eye on the Saturday prep races throughout February:
- The Holy Bull (Gulfstream Park)
- The Robert B. Lewis (Santa Anita)
- The Sam F. Davis (Tampa Bay Downs)
- The Risen Star (Fair Grounds)
Sign up for a free account on the Churchill Downs website to track the leaderboard weekly. The landscape will change the second a big name gets tired at the top of the stretch in a 1 1/16-mile race.
Ted Noffey is the favorite for now, but in the horse racing world, "for now" is the only thing you can count on. Track the workouts, watch the speed figures, and remember that the real Derby doesn't start until the second Saturday in May.