You've probably seen the highlights. The roar of the crowd, the fancy hats, and that one horse everyone says is a "lock." But honestly, if you're trying to figure out who's running in the Kentucky Derby this year, the real story isn't just the horse at the top of the leaderboard. It's the chaos happening in the middle.
Right now, we are staring at a leaderboard that looks safe on paper, but history says otherwise. By mid-January, the "sure things" are usually just horses that peaked too early.
Take Ted Noffey, for example. He’s the gray phantom everyone is talking about. He swept the juvenile season, pocketing 40 points like it was nothing. He’s the king of the mountain. But being the king in January is a dangerous business.
The Heavy Hitters: Who's Running in the Kentucky Derby Right Now
Basically, the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" is a math game. You win prep races, you get points. If you have enough points by May, you get a spot.
As of January 2026, the leaderboard is dominated by a few names that have already "punched their ticket," or at least have enough points to breathe easy.
Ted Noffey is the clear leader. Trained by the legend Todd Pletcher, this colt is 4-for-4. He won the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He’s got that "it" factor. But there's a catch. He hasn't run since October. Pletcher is notorious for "fitness mode"—he isn't trying to win prep races anymore; he's just trying to keep the horse healthy for the first Saturday in May.
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Then you have Litmus Test. He’s sitting with 19 points after winning the Los Alamitos Futurity for Bob Baffert. People love Baffert horses because they just keep coming. Litmus Test is a son of Nyquist, a Derby winner himself. He's got the pedigree, but can he handle the crowd at Churchill?
- Ted Noffey (40 points) - The undisputed favorite.
- Litmus Test (19 points) - The Baffert buzz horse.
- Intrepido (13 points) - A gritty runner out of the Jeff Mullins barn.
- Universe (13 points) - Kenny McPeek’s latest hope, always a threat for an upset.
There was a big blow to the lineup recently, though. Mr. A. P., who was sitting pretty in the third spot, has been sidelined with an injury. It’s a brutal reminder of how fragile these athletes are. One day you're a favorite, the next you're out of the game.
The Wildcards and Longshots
If you want to find the real value, you have to look at the horses that are just starting to wake up.
Have you heard of Express Kid? Probably not unless you follow the Remington Springboard Mile. He won that race at 34-1 odds. Absolute madness. He was an afterthought, a horse that supposedly preferred turf. Then he switched to the dirt and blew the doors off the competition by six lengths. He’s got 10 points now. He’s raw, he’s fast, and he’s exactly the kind of "now" horse that could crash the party.
And don't sleep on the international contingent. Pyromancer is coming out of Japan. He won the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun and carries the Godolphin blue. Japan has been dominating global racing lately, and Pyromancer looks like he could follow in the footsteps of Forever Young.
Why the Leaderboard is a Psychological Trap
Most people look at the point standings and assume that's the final list of who's running in the Kentucky Derby. It isn't. Not even close.
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In horse racing, we call this the "40-point safety trap." When a trainer like Pletcher or Brad Cox knows their horse is already "in," they stop pushing. They might enter a race like the Holy Bull or the Fountain of Youth just for a workout. If the horse finishes fourth? They don't care. They got the exercise they needed.
But the betting public sees that fourth-place finish and panics. They think the horse has "lost a step."
Further Ado is in this exact spot. Trained by Brad Cox, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and sits with 10 points. He’s a son of Gun Runner. He’s built for distance. People are worried because his winning margin was small, but Cox is a master of the slow build. He isn't looking for a "wow" performance in January. He’s looking for a win in May.
The Prep Races to Watch
The calendar is about to get very busy. If you want to know who will join the list of who's running in the Kentucky Derby, keep your eyes on these upcoming dates:
- January 17: The Lecomte Stakes. This is a huge one at Fair Grounds. Keep an eye on Chip Honcho. He’s an Asmussen trainee who just keeps grinding. He isn't flashy, but he doesn't quit.
- January 31: The "Triple Threat" Day. We’ve got the Holy Bull, the Southwest, and the Withers. This is where the leaderboard usually gets flipped upside down.
- February 14: Risen Star. This is the first "50-point" race. Whoever wins this is essentially guaranteed a spot in the starting gate.
Expert Insight: How to Read the Form
When you’re looking at these horses, don’t just look at the "1s" next to their names. Look at the speed figures.
Napoleon Solo is a perfect example of why numbers matter. He won the Champagne Stakes by over six lengths. On paper, he’s a superstar. But his "Beyer Speed Figure"—that’s the number experts use to measure pure speed—wasn't actually that high compared to previous years. Plus, his pedigree (Liam's Map) suggests he might struggle when the distance hits 1 1/4 miles.
He’s fast, sure. But is he a "Derby horse"? That's the question.
On the flip side, look at a horse like Paladin. He’s a $1.9 million yearling purchase. He won the Remsen Stakes at a mile and an eighth. That’s a long race for a young horse. He didn't look fast, but he looked like he could run forever. In the Derby, "running forever" is often better than "running fast."
Actionable Strategy for Following the Trail
If you want to stay ahead of the curve and really know who's running in the Kentucky Derby, stop watching the news and start watching the "work tabs."
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- Check the Workouts: Horses like Brant haven't raced in a while, but are they working out? A "bullet" workout (the fastest of the day) at 5 furlongs is a signal that a horse is ready to explode.
- Follow the Pedigree: If a horse is sired by Into Mischief or Gun Runner, they are bred for this. If they are sired by a pure sprinter, be skeptical of them at the longer Derby distance.
- The "Third Start" Rule: Many experts look for horses making their third start of the year in the Derby. They are usually at peak fitness.
- Watch the Japan Road: Do not ignore the horses coming from Tokyo or Dubai. They are no longer "tourists"; they are coming to win.
The field is far from set. We’ve got about 20 spots and roughly 100 horses still dreaming of the roses. Some will fall to injury, some will prove they can't handle the distance, and one—maybe a horse we haven't even mentioned yet—will become a legend.
Get your tracker ready. The real racing starts now.
To get the most out of your Derby season, start by tracking the "Equibase Speed Figures" for every prep race winner. Compare them to the 2025 winner, Sovereignty, to see if this year's crop is actually faster or just getting lucky. This simple comparison will tell you more than any expert commentary ever could.