The 2024 election is barely in the rearview mirror, but the political machine doesn’t actually have an "off" switch. It’s kinda wild when you think about it. People are already asking who's running in 2028 because, in the world of high-stakes American politics, if you aren't already laying the groundwork, you’re basically invisible.
We are currently seeing the "shadow primary" phase. This is that awkward period where nobody officially says they want the job, yet everyone is suddenly visiting Iowa for "book tours" or "state fair visits." It's transparent. It's predictable. And yet, it's how the game is played.
If you’re looking for a definitive list of names on a ballot, you won’t find one yet. Filing deadlines are years away. But if you look at donor networks, PAC activity, and travel schedules, the 2028 field is already taking a very specific shape. It’s going to be a battle of the governors, a few familiar faces from the 2024 cycle, and maybe a complete wild card that nobody sees coming.
The Democratic Bench: A Battle for the Post-Biden Identity
For the Democrats, the question of who's running in 2028 hinges almost entirely on how the party decides to brand itself after the Biden-Harris era. There is a massive generational shift happening.
Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania, is the name on everyone's lips right now. Why? Because he won a swing state by a massive margin and seems to have cracked the code on talking to rural voters without alienating the progressive base. He’s got that "pro-business but socially liberal" vibe that donors absolutely love. Honestly, his oratorical style is often compared to Obama, which is both a blessing and a massive weight to carry.
Then you have Gavin Newsom. The California Governor is basically the personification of the modern Democratic establishment. He’s slick. He’s got the hair. He’s got the debate chops—remember his 2023 showdown with Ron DeSantis? That wasn't for 2024; that was a 2028 pilot episode. But being from California is a double-edged sword. It’s easy to paint him as a "San Francisco liberal" in a general election, and he knows it. He’s been spending a lot of time in red states lately, trying to prove he can play on away turf.
The Midwestern Powerhouse Trio
Don’t sleep on the Midwest.
- Gretchen Whitmer: "Big Gretch" has a massive following. She survived a kidnapping plot, won re-election comfortably, and has a no-nonsense style that resonates with blue-collar voters.
- J.B. Pritzker: The Illinois Governor has the one thing every candidate needs: an enormous personal fortune. He can self-fund a primary, which makes him dangerous to everyone else.
- Pete Buttigieg: "Mayor Pete" is still a favorite among the donor class. He’s arguably the best communicator in the party. However, he needs to prove he can win more than a small city or a cabinet position.
The internal struggle for the Democrats will be between the "Safe Centrists" and the "Bold Progressives." While someone like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is frequently mentioned in social media circles, the party infrastructure is still very much leaning toward governors with executive experience. Governors have records. Senators have voting logs that can be twisted into 30-second attack ads. In 2028, the "Executive Experience" lane is going to be crowded.
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The Republican Side: Life After the Trump Era
Predicting who's running in 2028 on the GOP side is a bit like trying to predict the weather in the middle of a hurricane. It depends entirely on the status of Donald Trump’s influence over the RNC.
JD Vance is the immediate frontrunner in many people's minds. Being the Vice President (or the former VP candidate, depending on how the cycle shook out) gives you an automatic leg up. He has successfully pivoted from "Never Trump" to being the standard-bearer for the "New Right." He focuses on populism, trade protectionism, and a "post-Reagan" foreign policy. For the MAGA base, he is the natural heir.
But the "Traditional" wing of the party isn't dead. Not yet.
Ron DeSantis is still hanging around. Even though his 2024 run didn't go as planned, he still governs one of the most influential states in the country. He’s young. He can wait. He’s spent his time post-2024 shoring up his Florida base and signing legislation that keeps him in the national headlines. Whether he can fix his "likability" issue remains the big question mark.
The New Guard and the Governors
Watch out for Glenn Youngkin. The Virginia Governor is the guy who figured out how to win in a purple-to-blue state by focusing on "parental rights" and education. He wears fleece vests. He looks like a suburban dad. He’s the guy the GOP turns to if they decide they want to move away from the high-octane drama of the last decade and back toward "suburban-friendly" conservatism.
Brian Kemp is another one. The Georgia Governor stood up to Trump in 2020 and won re-election in 2022 anyway. He’s got a specific kind of "Southern Conservative" appeal that could play well in a general election, though he’d have a massive hill to climb with the MAGA base in a primary.
And then there's Vivek Ramaswamy. He’s young, he’s wealthy, and he’s relentless. Even if he doesn't win, he has the power to shift the entire conversation of the primary toward his specific brand of "anti-woke" capitalism. He’s basically a walking podcast, and in 2028, that’s a viable political strategy.
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Why 2028 Is Different Than Previous Cycles
We’re looking at a massive shift in how campaigns are funded and fought. Traditional TV ads are becoming less important. It’s all about the ground game and the "alternative" media circuit.
Whoever is running in 2028 will have to be a content creator as much as a politician. If you aren't doing three-hour long-form interviews on YouTube or appearing on the biggest podcasts in the country, you don’t exist to a huge chunk of the electorate.
Money is also weirder now. Super PACs have more power than ever, allowing "zombie" campaigns to stay alive long after they should have folded. In 2028, we might see a field of 20+ candidates simply because billionaire donors can keep their favorite person in the race indefinitely.
The Demographic Factor
The electorate in 2028 will be the most diverse in U.S. history. Generation Z and Millennials will make up a nearly decisive voting bloc. This means topics like:
- Housing affordability (the "Can I ever buy a home?" question).
- AI and job displacement.
- The long-term viability of Social Security.
- Climate resilience in the face of rising insurance costs.
These aren't just "talking points" anymore. They are existential issues for the people who will decide the 2028 election. Candidates who just stick to the old 1990s playbook are going to get slaughtered.
The Dark Horses: Names to Keep on Your Radar
Every cycle has a Jimmy Carter or a Barack Obama—someone who starts at 1% in the polls and ends up in the Oval Office.
On the Republican side, look at Wes Moore—wait, he’s a Democrat. My bad. Wes Moore, the Governor of Maryland, is a Rhodes Scholar, an Army veteran, and has a "it" factor that's hard to ignore. If he decides to jump in, he could easily disrupt the "frontrunners."
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On the Republican side, keep an eye on Byron Donalds. He’s a charismatic congressman from Florida who has become a staple on cable news. He represents a younger, more diverse version of the MAGA movement.
Also, we can't ignore the "Celebrity" factor. Every four years, people talk about The Rock or Mark Cuban. While it usually turns out to be nothing, the line between entertainment and politics has never been thinner. If the economy is in a weird spot in 2027, a "business savior" figure could gain serious traction.
Strategic Moves: What's Happening Right Now
If you want to know who's running in 2028, don't watch the news. Watch the FEC filings and the state-level appointments.
Potential candidates are currently doing three things:
- Building a National Fundraising Database: They are "renting" email lists and running vague digital ads to collect data.
- Staffing Up: Top-tier political consultants are already being "retained" for future work.
- Policy Paper Dumping: They are starting to release "books" or detailed policy proposals to prove they are serious thinkers.
It’s a long road. A lot can happen in two years. A scandal, a health scare, or a global crisis can end a "frontrunner's" career in a weekend. But as of today, the board is set.
How to Track the 2028 Field Like a Pro
Following politics can be exhausting. To keep your sanity while staying informed about the 2028 race, focus on these actionable steps:
- Ignore the early polls: A poll in 2025 or 2026 about 2028 is basically a "name recognition" contest. It doesn't tell you who will win; it just tells you who has been on TV the most.
- Watch the state legislatures: Keep an eye on the laws being passed in Pennsylvania, Florida, California, and Michigan. These are the "testing grounds" for national platforms. If a policy works there, you'll see it in a presidential debate in 2028.
- Follow the money, but specifically the "Small Dollars": Big donors are great, but the candidate who can get 500,000 people to give $5 is the one with the real staying power.
- Monitor "Candidate Travels": If a Governor from a West Coast state is suddenly speaking at a GOP dinner in New Hampshire, they aren't there for the scenery. They are testing their stump speech.
The 2028 election will likely be defined by a desire for stability or a push for radical change. We won't know which one the public wants until we get closer, but the people who want to lead that charge are already making their moves.
Keep your eyes on the governors. In a time of federal gridlock, people are increasingly looking to state leaders who actually "get things done." That seems to be the trend, anyway. We'll see if it holds when the first debates actually kick off in a few years.
To stay ahead of the curve, focus on candidate activity in early primary states like South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire starting in mid-2026. This is when the "whisper campaigns" turn into actual infrastructure. Pay attention to which candidates are successfully bridging the gap between their party's traditional base and the growing "independent" voting bloc, as that's where the 2028 election will ultimately be won or lost.