If you’re looking for a ballot right now with Ted Cruz’s name on it, you’re actually a few years early. Honestly, the timing is what trips most people up.
Ted Cruz just won his third term in the U.S. Senate back in November 2024. He beat former NFL player and Congressman Colin Allred by about 8.5 percentage points. It wasn't particularly close in the end, even though the polls hinted at a nail-biter for months.
Because Senate terms last six years, who's running against Ted Cruz isn't a question for today, but for 2030.
That feels like a lifetime away. But in Texas politics? People are already whispering.
The Current State of Play in Texas
Right now, the focus in the Lone Star State has shifted entirely toward the 2026 election cycle. That's the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn. It’s a completely different animal.
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While Ted Cruz is safe in his seat until January 2031, the 2026 race is already becoming a chaotic brawl. Major Democratic names like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico have jumped into the 2026 primary to try and take down Cornyn. Even Colin Allred, after his loss to Cruz, briefly toyed with the idea of another run before the field solidified.
But back to Cruz.
He isn't going anywhere for a while. He’s currently serving as a senior member of the Senate Commerce and Judiciary committees. Unless he decides to run for President again in 2028—which he hasn't ruled out—his next big fight is years away.
Why 2030 is the Real Target
So, if there's no official list of candidates for 2030, who is actually on the radar?
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You have to look at the "Rising Stars." Texas Democrats have a habit of building up candidates for years before they hit the big stage. Think about it. Beto O'Rourke didn't just appear out of nowhere in 2018; he had a base.
Currently, names that political junkies keep an eye on for a future Cruz challenge include:
- James Talarico: A former teacher who is currently running for the 2026 seat. If he loses that but puts up a good fight, he’s a prime candidate to pivot toward Cruz in 2030.
- Jasmine Crockett: She’s got huge national name recognition now. Her viral moments in Congress have made her a fundraising powerhouse.
- Lina Hidalgo: The Harris County Judge has long been rumored for a statewide jump. She’s young and governs the biggest blue engine in the state.
The "Cruz vs. Allred" Aftermath
A lot of people are still asking about who's running against Ted Cruz because they remember the massive 2024 spending. Over $100 million was poured into that race.
Allred focused heavily on reproductive rights and Cruz's infamous Cancun trip during the 2021 winter storm. It didn't work. Cruz countered by tying Allred to the national Democratic platform and focusing heavily on the border.
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The margin of Cruz's victory—53% to 45%—was actually wider than his 2018 win over Beto O'Rourke. This has led many political analysts to suggest that Texas isn't "purple" just yet. It’s still a deep shade of red, especially in rural counties that Cruz won by massive margins.
What to Watch for Next
Since there is no active campaign against Cruz today, you should keep your eyes on the 2026 midterms.
How Democrats perform against John Cornyn will tell us everything we need to know about the 2030 landscape. If a Democrat like Talarico or Crockett can get within three points of Cornyn, the donor money for a 2030 Cruz challenge will be astronomical.
If they lose by double digits? Expect the big donors to stay home.
Actionable Steps for Texas Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the next Senate race, here is what you can do right now:
- Check your registration: Even though Cruz isn't up, the 2026 primaries happen in March. Ensure your status is active at the Texas Secretary of State website.
- Follow the 2026 Primary: Watch how Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico handle their statewide campaigns. Their success or failure will dictate who eventually steps up to face Cruz.
- Monitor the 2028 Presidential cycle: If Ted Cruz enters the GOP primary for President, he may have to vacate his seat or create an opening that moves the timeline up.
The 2030 race is a long game. While the names on the ballot aren't printed yet, the "shadow primary" is already happening in the halls of Austin and Washington D.C.