Honestly, the NFL hierarchy just got flipped on its head. If you told a fan three years ago that the road to Super Bowl LX would go through Seattle and Denver while Patrick Mahomes watched from his couch, they’d probably ask you to take a breathalyzer. But here we are. It’s January 18, 2026, and the Divisional Round just wrapped up with some massive shifts in who's predicted to be in the Super Bowl.
The vibe has changed. We’re no longer talking about "dynasties" in Kansas City or Baltimore. Instead, the conversation is dominated by a resurgent Mike Macdonald defense in Seattle and a Drake Maye-led revolution in New England. It's weird. It’s exciting. And for anyone holding a betting slip, it's incredibly stressful.
The NFC Heavyweights: Seattle and LA are on a Collision Course
Right now, the Seattle Seahawks are the betting favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Levi’s Stadium. They just dismantled the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round. That wasn't just a win; it was a statement. Mike Macdonald has built a defensive unit that people are already comparing to the Legion of Boom. They lead the league in EPA per play when blitzing and when changing shell coverages after the snap.
Basically, they make quarterbacks see ghosts.
Sam Darnold has found a second (or is it third?) life in this system. He’s leaning heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has turned into an absolute monster down the field. But they aren't the only ones in the building. The Los Angeles Rams are lurking.
💡 You might also like: Why Isn't Mbappe Playing Today: The Real Madrid Crisis Explained
- Matthew Stafford is the only remaining starting QB in the playoffs who has actually won a Super Bowl as a starter.
- Davante Adams is back from a hamstring injury just in time for the NFC Championship.
- The Rams' offense ranks first in success rate and rushing EPA.
Sean McVay has this team playing "bully ball" behind a massive offensive line and Puka Nacua’s physical style. If you’re looking at who's predicted to be in the Super Bowl from the NFC, it’s a coin flip between the Seahawks' elite defense and the Rams' unstoppable offensive machine.
The AFC Chaos: Injuries and Upstarts
The AFC side of the bracket is... complicated. The Denver Broncos secured the No. 1 seed, but they just suffered a catastrophic blow. Bo Nix broke his ankle in their 33-30 overtime thriller against Buffalo. Now, the Broncos have to rely on Jarrett Stidham to get them to Santa Clara. Because of that injury, their odds slid from +700 down to +950 almost overnight.
While Denver limps forward, the New England Patriots are surging. Drake Maye has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate in his sophomore season. He leads the league in total EPA. Mike Vrabel has that team playing incredibly disciplined football—they are currently the most efficient team in the NFL.
Then there are the Houston Texans. They are on a nine-game winning streak. C.J. Stroud is playing with a level of poise that makes you forget he’s still so young. They have the No. 1 total defense in the league and haven't lost since they started 0-3. If you want a "team of destiny" narrative, it’s Houston.
📖 Related: Tottenham vs FC Barcelona: Why This Matchup Still Matters in 2026
Why Most Predictions Might Be Wrong
People love to pick the chalk. They see Seattle as the favorite (+135) and assume the path is clear. But there are cracks. Seattle’s offensive line is suspect—they rank 27th in the league when Sam Darnold is pressured. If they face a team with a high pressure rate—like the Rams (5th in pressure rate without blitzing)—that "favorite" status could evaporate quickly.
Also, don't sleep on the Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams has been sensational in his second year, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards. They have home-field advantage unless they play Seattle. If the weather in Chicago turns nasty, that rushing attack led by Williams and a physical backfield could easily upset the Rams next weekend.
The Current Betting Landscape (As of Jan 18, 2026)
If you're looking at the hard numbers from Vegas and sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, the hierarchy is clear, but the gaps are closing.
- Seattle Seahawks (+135 to +300): The consensus favorite. Their defense is just too dominant to ignore, though the Sam Darnold "implosion factor" is always in the back of everyone's mind.
- Los Angeles Rams (+320 to +340): The expert's choice. Many analysts, like those at PrizePicks and Underdog Network, actually favor the Rams over Seattle because of Matthew Stafford’s experience.
- New England Patriots (+450 to +600): The AFC's new darling. With Bo Nix out in Denver, the Patriots are now the team most likely to represent the AFC in many models.
- Houston Texans (+750 to +950): The sleeper that isn't really a sleeper anymore. Their defense is statistically better than Seattle's in several categories.
What Really Matters: The Matchup Nightmare
When we talk about who's predicted to be in the Super Bowl, we have to talk about the "Matchup Nightmare" scenario. For the Patriots, it’s the Texans' pass rush. For the Seahawks, it’s the Rams' 3-TE sets that neutralize their zone coverages.
👉 See also: Buddy Hield Sacramento Kings: What Really Happened Behind the Scenes
The most likely Super Bowl LX matchup based on current momentum? Seahawks vs. Patriots. It would be a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, but with entirely different faces. No Brady. No Russ. No Marshawn Lynch. Instead, it’s the young gun Drake Maye trying to solve the Mike Macdonald puzzle.
Actionable Insights for the Next Two Weeks
If you’re following the road to Santa Clara, keep your eyes on these specific developments:
- Monitor the injury reports for Seattle’s LT Charles Cross. His hamstring is the key to whether Sam Darnold stays clean or starts seeing ghosts.
- Watch the Broncos' practice reports for Jarrett Stidham. If the offense looks completely stagnant without Bo Nix, the AFC is New England's or Houston's to lose.
- Look at the weather in Chicago. If it’s a "frozen tundra" situation, the Bears’ chances of upsetting the Rams go up significantly.
The road to the Super Bowl is never a straight line. One ankle injury or one missed block can change the entire "predicted" field. Right now, Seattle looks like a juggernaut, but the veteran presence of the Rams and the explosive growth of the Patriots make this one of the most unpredictable Januarys in recent memory.
Track the line movement over the next 48 hours. If the Rams’ odds keep shrinking, it means the "smart money" is betting on Stafford’s experience over the Seahawks' defensive hype.