Wisconsin is basically the political center of the universe. Again. Honestly, if you live here, you're probably used to the constant barrage of door knockers and the unescapable TV ads. But right now, things are weird.
For the first time in sixteen years, we have an open race for governor. Tony Evers is stepping away, and that’s left a massive power vacuum that everyone and their brother is trying to fill.
If you're wondering who’s leading in Wisconsin, the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at name recognition or actual "ready to vote" support. According to the latest Marquette Law School data from late 2025 and early 2026, most voters are still scratching their heads. About 70% of Republicans and 81% of Democrats haven't actually picked a favorite yet. It’s a wide-open scramble.
The Republican Frontrunners: MAGA vs. The Local Guy
On the GOP side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany is the guy to beat. He’s got the highest name recognition—around 39%—and he’s got the "Trump factor" in his corner. In a state where the MAGA base is the engine of the party, Tiffany’s close ties to the former president make him the de facto leader of the pack.
But he isn't alone. Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann is the scrappy underdog here. He’s leaning hard into the "local control" vibe. He wants people to focus on Wisconsin issues rather than D.C. drama. While Tiffany has the North Woods locked down, Schoemann is trying to hold the line in the crucial "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington).
Schoemann actually has a slightly positive net favorability (+1), which is rare in this polarized mess. Tiffany is sitting at a -3 net, mostly because Democrats really don't like him, but among his own party, he’s the heavyweight.
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The Democratic Stampede
The Democratic primary is a crowded house. It’s almost a "who’s who" of Madison and Milwaukee politics.
- Mandela Barnes: The former Lieutenant Governor is the most "famous" face in the race. People remember his 2022 Senate run. He’s got the base, but he also carries the baggage of a previous statewide loss.
- Sara Rodriguez: The current Lieutenant Governor was the first to jump in. She’s trying to position herself as the natural successor to Evers. She’s one of the few with a positive favorability rating right now.
- David Crowley: The Milwaukee County Executive is making the case that he’s the only one who actually runs a massive government day-to-day. He’s betting that voters want a manager, not just a talker.
- Francesca Hong & Kelda Roys: Both are Madison powerhouses. Hong is leaning into workers' rights and her background as a chef/business owner, while Roys has the legislative experience to back up her progressive platform.
The Supreme Court Showdown
While everyone is obsessed with the governor’s mansion, there’s a massive fight happening this April for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This is the race where we’ll actually see who’s leading in Wisconsin's ideological war.
It’s Judge Chris Taylor (the liberal) vs. Judge Maria Lazar (the conservative).
Lazar is coming out of Waukesha, the heart of GOP territory. Taylor is a Madison staple who used to work for Planned Parenthood. Even though the seat won't flip the 4-3 liberal majority, it’s a massive "vibe check" for the fall. If Taylor wins big, Democrats will feel invincible. If Lazar pulls it off, Republicans will know they have the momentum to take back the state in November.
What Voters Actually Care About (Hint: It’s Not Just Politics)
You’d think everyone is focused on the candidates, but the Marquette poll shows something different. People are stressed.
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Inflation and the cost of living are the #1 concerns across the board. 69% of voters are "very concerned" about their wallets. After that, it splits along the usual lines. Democrats are worried about health insurance and gun violence; Republicans are hyper-focused on illegal immigration and the border.
If a candidate isn't talking about grocery prices, they aren't leading anything.
The Battle for the Legislature
The "Who's leading in Wisconsin" question extends to the State Capitol too. For the first time in nearly twenty years, Democrats think they have a real shot at taking the State Senate.
Why? New maps.
The 18-15 Republican majority in the Senate is looking a lot more fragile than it used to. Democrats are targeting districts in Racine, Brookfield, and Spring Green. If they flip just two seats and hold their own, the power dynamic in Madison changes forever. It would end the era of one-party control that defined the Scott Walker years and most of the Evers era.
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The "WOW" Factor and the 72-County Strategy
Tom Tiffany has been very vocal about a "72-county strategy." He knows Republicans can't just win the rural areas and call it a day anymore. They have to stop the bleeding in Dane County (Madison), which is growing faster than anywhere else in the state.
On the flip side, Democrats are trying to prove they haven't forgotten the rural voters. The fact that Ryan Strnad, a Milwaukee beer vendor, even showed up in the polls with 11% name recognition tells you that people are looking for something—anything—outside the typical political bubble.
Actionable Steps for Wisconsin Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve as the 2026 cycle heats up, don't just wait for the TV commercials.
- Check the Spring Calendar: The Supreme Court election is April 7, 2026. This is the first real test of party strength.
- Verify Your Registration: With new legislative maps in place, your district or polling place might have changed. Visit MyVote Wisconsin to be sure.
- Follow the Money: Campaign finance reports coming out this month will show who is actually winning the "invisible primary." If a candidate isn't raising money by now, they're probably a ghost.
- Watch the Primaries: Mark August 11, 2026, on your calendar. That’s when the "undecided" majority will finally have to make a choice.
The race is messy, the field is crowded, and the stakes are basically everything. Whether it's the fight for the Supreme Court or the wide-open race for Governor, Wisconsin is about to be very loud for the next ten months.