Look, the 2024 election is in the rearview mirror, but if you’re asking who’s leading in the presidential race today, the answer isn’t just about who is sitting in the Oval Office. It’s about who has the momentum for the next fight.
Right now, Donald Trump is the President of the United States. He won. He took 312 Electoral College votes to Kamala Harris’s 226. He even grabbed the popular vote by about 1.5%, a feat no Republican had managed since George W. Bush in 2004. But being "in the lead" as a seated president is a double-edged sword. While he holds the power, his poll numbers are doing a bit of a nose-dive as we hit January 2026.
Honestly, the "lead" is shifting from a settled election victory to a very shaky approval rating.
The Numbers Game: Trump’s Approval vs. The 2024 Highs
When Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, he started with an approval rating of roughly 47%. Fast forward a year. It’s not looking so hot. Recent data from RealClearPolitics and Gallup shows his approval has cratered to somewhere between 36% and 41%.
Why the drop? Basically, it's the economy.
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People are feeling the pinch. An AP-NORC poll released just a few days ago shows that only 37% of U.S. adults approve of his economic handling. Even more telling? About 6 in 10 Americans say he’s actually made the cost of living worse. You’ve got a situation where 72% of the public describes the economy as "poor" or just "fair."
It’s wild to think that just over a year ago, he swept all seven swing states. He won Pennsylvania by about 120,000 votes and took Arizona by over 5 points. But winning an election is one thing; keeping that "lead" in the hearts of voters during a second term is a whole different beast.
Breaking Down the Voter Shifts
If we look at who is actually sticking by him versus who is jumping ship, the demographic data is pretty fascinating.
- Men: In 2024, Trump won 55% of the male vote. As of early 2026, that support is still his strongest base, but there's "erosion" (as the pollsters say) among younger men under 50.
- The Youth Vote: This is where the Democrats are trying to claw back a lead. In 2024, Harris only won voters aged 18-49 by 7 points. Compare that to Biden’s 17-point lead in 2020. That was a massive swing.
- Hispanic Voters: This was the shocker of the election. Among Hispanic men who voted in 2024 but skipped 2020, a staggering 60% went for Trump.
- Black Voters: Harris still held the majority here at 83%, but Trump’s 15% was a significant jump from previous Republican performances.
Is There a Democrat Leading the 2028 Talk?
Technically, there is no "race" for a few more months until the midterms kick into high gear, but the shadow boxing has started. Kamala Harris is still the default leader of the opposition, but her 2024 loss left a lot of people wondering if the party needs a fresh face.
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The 2026 midterms are the real litmus test. If Democrats can flip the House or Senate, whoever leads that charge becomes the new "frontrunner" for the 2028 cycle. Names like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer are constantly whispered about in D.C. circles. They represent the "Blue Wall" that Trump managed to crack, and the party is desperate to see if they can lead a comeback.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the "lead" is theoretically JD Vance’s to lose, being the VP. But Trump’s falling approval ratings often drag down his second-in-command. If the economy doesn't bounce back by the time the 2026 midterms roll around this November, the "lead" the Republicans have in government might be very short-lived.
The Greenland and Venezuela Factor
You might have missed this in the noise, but foreign policy is starting to eat into the President's lead. There’s been talk of military force in Venezuela and even bizarre headlines about Greenland. A Marist poll found that 56% of Americans oppose military action in Venezuela. When a president starts talking about "foreign adventurism," as Mother Jones recently called it, they usually lose the middle-of-the-road independents who just want their grocery bills to go down.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Polls
People often look at a 40% approval rating and think, "Oh, he's definitely going to lose the next one." But remember, Trump’s base is incredibly "sticky."
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According to AP-NORC, about 4 in 10 Americans have consistently approved of him regardless of what happens. It's a floor that doesn't seem to break. While he might be "down" in the general sense, in a polarized country, a 40% floor means you’re always just one good economic quarter away from being back in the lead.
Honestly, the person "leading" right now is actually Apathy.
In the Emerson College polls for upcoming state races, "Undecided" is often the second or third strongest candidate. People are exhausted. They just finished a grueling 2024 cycle, and they’re already being hit with 2026 midterm ads.
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
If you want to track who is actually leading as we head toward the 2026 midterms and the eventual 2028 kickoff, don't just look at national approval. National polls are sort of useless for predicting power shifts.
- Watch the "Generic Congressional Ballot": This asks voters if they'd prefer a Democrat or Republican in Congress. It’s a better vibe-check for the country than a single person's popularity.
- Monitor the Consumer Price Index (CPI): Historically, the party in power's "lead" lives and dies by inflation. If CPI stays high through the summer of 2026, expect the GOP lead in the House to vanish.
- Follow State-Level Approval: Look at Trump’s numbers in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan specifically. If he’s under 40% in those three states, the "Blue Wall" is effectively rebuilt.
- Keep an eye on the 2026 Texas Senate Race: Current polls show Rep. James Talarico leading the Democratic primary. If a Democrat becomes competitive in Texas, the national "lead" for the GOP is in massive trouble.
The presidential race is a marathon that never really stops. Trump has the chair, but the data suggests he's losing the room. Whether the Democrats can actually find a leader to take advantage of that is the $64,000 question.