It is January 17, 2026. If you feel like we just finished an election, you're right. But in the world of American politics, the "Permanent Campaign" is a real thing, and the data-crunchers are already obsessing over who's leading in the presidential polls as of today for the 2028 cycle. Honestly, it's a bit exhausting. But if you're curious about who's actually holding the cards a year into President Trump's second term, the numbers are starting to tell a very specific story.
Don't expect a single "winner" yet. We are basically looking at two different worlds: a Republican field that is currently a one-man show, and a Democratic side that looks like a chaotic, high-stakes talent show.
The Republican Side: It's JD Vance's World
If you look at the GOP numbers right now, the competition is... well, there isn't much of it. Vice President JD Vance has basically built a fortress around the MAGA base.
In recent surveys, including a major Emerson College national poll and data from Big Data Poll, Vance is sitting pretty with over 50% of the support from Republican voters. To put that in perspective, his closest "rivals" like Secretary of State Marco Rubio or Governor Ron DeSantis are often struggling to even hit double digits.
Vance has spent the last year positioning himself as the undisputed heir to the Trump legacy. While other potential candidates are busy with their day jobs, Vance has been the face of the administration's most aggressive policies. You've probably seen him all over the news lately, and that visibility is paying off.
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Why the Gap is So Huge
The gap isn't just about popularity; it's about consolidation. Most of the heavy hitters in the party are already lining up behind him. Just this week, outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin basically ended any rumors of his own 2028 run by endorsing Vance. When a "moderate" favorite like Youngkin bows out this early, it sends a loud signal: the lane is closed.
- JD Vance: 45% - 52% (Depending on the poll)
- Marco Rubio: 7% - 9%
- Ron DeSantis: 3% - 8%
- Tulsi Gabbard: 8% (Emerging as a dark horse favorite)
The Democratic Scramble: Newsom vs. Harris vs. Everyone
While the Republicans have a clear frontrunner, the Democrats are in a total dogfight. It's kinda fascinating to watch. If you ask who's leading in the presidential polls as of today on the left, the answer changes depending on which day you check the tracker.
California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat. For a while, Harris held a slight edge, but Newsom has been surging. According to the latest RealClearPolitics averages, Newsom is hovering around 24% to Harris’s 22%.
But here’s the kicker: Pete Buttigieg is always right there in the rearview mirror. In New Hampshire—which always loves to be different—Buttigieg actually leads the pack with about 19% in the Granite State Poll.
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The "New Blood" Factor
There is a massive hunger for someone outside the "Old Guard." You see it in the support for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is pulling about 8% to 14% depending on the region. Then you have Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. He’s only at about 5-6% nationally right now, but his approval rating in his home state is a massive 60%. If he can translate that "swing state magic" to a national audience, he could easily upend the Newsom-Harris duopoly.
The demographic shifts are wild, too. Newsom has made huge gains with younger voters (18-29), jumping from a split with the field to a clear lead in that age bracket.
The Trump Factor and the 2026 Midterms
You can't talk about 2028 without talking about the guy currently in the Oval Office. President Trump’s approval rating is remarkably stable—and remarkably polarized. He’s sitting at about 40-45% approval, which is basically where he’s been for a decade.
But there’s a shadow over these 2028 polls: the 2026 Midterms. We are officially in a midterm year, and the "Generic Congressional Vote" is currently favoring Democrats by about 3 to 4 points.
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If the Democrats take back the House or Senate this November, the 2028 frontrunners will likely be the ones who campaigned the hardest for those winning candidates. Josh Shapiro, for instance, has been hitting the trail hard, and if he helps Democrats win big in Pennsylvania this year, his 2028 stock will skyrocket.
What Most People Get Wrong About Early Polls
Honestly, most people take these numbers too literally. Being the frontrunner three years out is often a curse. Just ask any number of "sure thing" candidates from previous cycles who disappeared before the first primary.
The real value of knowing who's leading in the presidential polls as of today isn't about predicting the winner. It's about seeing the direction of the parties.
- The GOP is doubling down on the Trump/Vance populist model.
- The Democrats are struggling to decide if they want a "safe" establishment choice (Harris/Buttigieg) or a "bold" outsider (Newsom/AOC).
Actionable Insights for the Political Junkie
If you're trying to keep a pulse on this without losing your mind, here is what you should actually watch over the next six months:
- The Approval Rating of Governors: Watch Shapiro (PA), Whitmer (MI), and Newsom (CA). Their ability to maintain high approval in their home states is a better indicator of "electability" than a national poll.
- Fundraising Totals: Keep an eye on the 1Q and 2Q FEC filings for "leadership PACs." Money doesn't always buy votes, but it shows you who the donors think is the "real" frontrunner.
- The 2026 "Generic Ballot": If this stays at Democrats +4 or higher, expect the 2028 Democratic primary to get even more crowded as everyone smells blood in the water.
The 2028 race is already here, whether we want it or not. While Vance looks like a lock for his party, the Democratic side is a wide-open field that’s going to be fun (or stressful) to watch.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should start looking at specific state-level polling in Iowa and New Hampshire rather than national averages. National polls are great for name recognition, but state-level data is where the actual momentum starts. Check the latest updates from the Des Moines Register or the UNH Survey Center as they start releasing more 2028-specific data later this spring.