Ever heard the old Roman saying? "He who enters the conclave a Pope, leaves it a Cardinal." It's basically the Vatican's version of "don't count your chickens." Right now, the Catholic world is in a bit of a frenzy. Pope Francis passed away in April 2025, and after a whirlwind conclave in May, the white smoke rose for an American—Pope Leo XIV (the former Cardinal Robert Prevost).
But here’s the thing: in the Vatican, the conversation about the next successor never actually stops. Even with Leo XIV barely a year into his reign, the "papabile"—those considered "pope-able"—are already being sized up.
People always want to know who's in line to be the next pope, but the line isn't a straight one. It’s more like a shifting web of geopolitics, secret alliances, and age brackets.
The Continuity Candidates: Keeping the Francis Fire Alive
Leo XIV has signaled he’s a continuity guy. He likes the "pastoral" vibe of Francis. If he were to step down or if things shifted, the "Francis wing" of the church has a deep bench.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi is the name you’ll hear in every coffee shop in Rome. He’s 70 now. He’s got that "street priest" energy. People love him because he doesn't just sit in a gilded office; he’s been a peace envoy in Ukraine and worked with the Sant’Egidio community for decades. He’s basically the guy you’d want to grab a beer with, which, honestly, is a huge asset in a world that feels increasingly corporate.
Then there’s Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. He’s 68. Everyone calls him the "Asian Francis." He’s charismatic, he cries at stories of the poor, and he’s incredibly media-savvy. For a while, he was the betting favorite. However, being a favorite too early is often a curse. Some say he’s too "meek" for the brutal bureaucracy of the Roman Curia.
👉 See also: How Old Is Celeste Rivas? The Truth Behind the Tragic Timeline
The Diplomacy Powerhouse
You can't talk about the papacy without mentioning Cardinal Pietro Parolin. He’s 71. As the long-time Secretary of State, he knows where all the bodies are buried. Literally and figuratively.
Parolin is the ultimate diplomat.
He’s the "safe" choice.
The "middle ground" candidate.
If the Cardinals decide they’ve had enough of "rockstar" popes and just want someone who can make the trains run on time, Parolin is their man. He’s Italian, which usually helps, though the spell of Italian dominance was broken decades ago.
The Conservative Pushback: A Different Direction?
Not everyone liked the Francis era. There is a very vocal, very organized group of Cardinals who want a return to tradition. They want clear lines. No more "gray areas" on doctrine.
Cardinal Péter Erdő from Hungary is their heavyweight. He’s 73. He’s a canon lawyer, which means he’s obsessed with the rules. While he’s not a firebrand like some American conservatives, he represents a "law and order" approach to the faith. If the church feels like it’s drifting too far into secularism, the pendulum could swing hard toward someone like Erdő.
✨ Don't miss: How Did Black Men Vote in 2024: What Really Happened at the Polls
And then there’s the "African Hope," Cardinal Robert Sarah. He’s 80 now, which honestly puts him on the edge of being "too old," but his influence is massive. He’s the face of traditional liturgy. He’s outspoken against what he calls "gender ideology" and Western secularism. Even if he isn't elected, he’s a kingmaker.
Why the "First" Matters
We’re at a point where the demographics of the Church are screaming for a non-European leader again.
- Africa is where the growth is.
- Asia is the frontier.
- Latin America is the heartland.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Congo is a fascinating dark horse. He’s 66. He’s tough. He stands up to dictators. If the Cardinals want to send a message that the Church belongs to the Global South, Ambongo is a much more likely pick than a European diplomat.
What Actually Happens Inside the Room?
You’ve seen the movies. The Sistine Chapel. The locked doors. No phones.
It’s not just about who's the holiest. It’s about 130-140 guys (all under 80) trying to figure out who can lead a billion people without causing a schism. They talk in "General Congregations" for days before the voting starts. They look for someone who can speak five languages, handle a budget, inspire the youth, and keep the traditionalists from revolting.
🔗 Read more: Great Barrington MA Tornado: What Really Happened That Memorial Day
It’s an impossible job.
What to Watch For Next
If you want to track who's in line to be the next pope like a pro, stop looking at the polls and start looking at the "consistories." These are the meetings where the Pope creates new Cardinals.
Actionable Insights for Following the Papal Race:
- Watch the 80th Birthdays: Once a Cardinal turns 80, they can't vote. If a lot of "liberal" Cardinals hit 80 and the Pope replaces them with "conservatives" (or vice versa), the whole math of the next conclave changes.
- Follow the Travels: If a Cardinal like Zuppi or Tagle is suddenly sent on high-profile missions to places like China or the US, they are being "tested" on the world stage.
- The "Vibe" Shift: Read the official Vatican news (Vatican News or L'Osservatore Romano). If the rhetoric starts shifting from "mercy" back to "doctrine," the next Pope will likely reflect that.
The Church moves in centuries, not news cycles. While the world looks at the current Pope, the Cardinals are already thinking about the next man who will wear the fisherman’s ring. Honestly, the most likely winner is probably someone we aren't even talking about yet. That’s just how the Holy Spirit—and Vatican politics—tends to work.
Keep an eye on the upcoming 2026 consistory. It’ll tell us everything we need to know about the balance of power for the next decade.